2 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (21.2%)

7 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (78.8%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Texas

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+5.3

    Adjusted polls

  • R+11.2

    CANTOR

  • D+0.4

    Fundamentals

  • R+5.9

    Experts

  • R+5.3

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+4.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+5.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 40 polls for the Texas Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
O'Rourke
Cruz
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 3-5
11/3-5
Trafalgar Group2,135LV
2.46
43%52%R+8.9 <0.1 1.4 R+7.5
Nov 1-2
11/1-2
Change Research
D
1,211LV
1.30
49%49%EVEN <0.1 1.5 R+1.5
Oct 28-30
10/28-30
Emerson College781LV
1.55
47%50%R+3.1 <0.1 0.6 R+2.5
Oct 22-28
10/22-28
Quinnipiac University1,078LV
1.50
46%51%R+5.0 <0.1 1.0 R+5.9
Oct 15-28
10/15-28
University of Texas - Tyler905LV
0.83
43%47%R+3.6 <0.1 0.3 R+3.9
Oct 25-26
10/25-26
Dixie Strategies588LV
0.88
42%52%R+10.0 <0.1 1.1 R+8.9
Oct 18-21
10/18-21
GBA Strategies
D
1,000LV
0.72
46%50%R+4.0 <0.1 2.1 R+6.1
Oct 15-21
10/15-21
YouGov927LV
0.71
45%51%R+6.0 <0.1 2.3 R+3.7
Oct 12-18
10/12-18
Ipsos1,298LV
0.87
44%49%R+4.5 <0.1 0.6 R+3.9
Oct 10-14
10/10-14
Tulchin Research
D
600LV
0.34
45%49%R+4.0 <0.1 5.3 R+9.3
Oct 9-13
10/9-13
CNN/SSRS716LV
0.55
45%52%R+7.0 <0.1 0.8 R+7.8
Oct 8-13
10/8-13
WPA Intelligence
R
801LV
0.37
43%52%R+9.0 <0.1 6.5 R+2.5
Oct 8-11
10/8-11
Siena College/New York Times800LV
0.64
43%51%R+8.1 <0.1 0.3 R+8.4
Oct 3-9
10/3-9
Quinnipiac University730LV
0.14
45%54%R+9.0 <0.1 1.0 R+10.0
Oct 2-5
10/2-5
YouGov881LV
0.16
44%50%R+6.0 <0.1 2.3 R+3.7
Oct 1-5
10/1-5
Emerson College500LV
0.07
42%47%R+4.6 <0.1 0.6 R+4.0
Sep 19-20
9/19-20
Public Policy Polling
D
613V
0.07
45%48%R+3.0 0.1 0.1 1.9 R+5.1
Sep 19-20
9/19-20
Public Policy Polling
D
603V
0.07
46%49%R+3.0 0.1 0.1 1.9 R+5.1
Sep 16-18
9/16-18
Vox Populi Polling508LV
0.09
50%50%EVEN 0.1 0.7 D+0.6
Sep 11-17
9/11-17
Quinnipiac University807LV
0.02
45%54%R+9.0 0.1 1.0 R+10.1
Sep 6-14
9/6-14
Ipsos992LV
0.02
47%45%D+2.0 0.1 0.6 D+2.5
Sep 11-12
9/11-12
Reform Austin
D
1,161LV
0.07
45%49%R+4.0 0.1 2.5 R+6.6
Sep 6-9
9/6-9
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research800LV
0.07
44%47%R+3.0 0.1 1.8 R+1.3
Sep 6-7
9/6-7
Dixie Strategies519LV
0.01
42%46%R+4.1 0.1 1.1 R+3.2
Aug 22-25
8/22-25
Emerson College550RV
0.00
37%38%R+0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 R+0.0
Aug 12-16
8/12-16
Marist College759RV
0.03
45%49%R+4.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 R+4.3
Aug 1-2
8/1-2
Public Policy Polling
D
797V
0.00
42%46%R+4.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 R+5.4
Jul 26-31
7/26-31
Quinnipiac University1,118RV
0.00
43%49%R+6.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 R+6.5
Jul 9-25
7/9-25
Texas Lyceum441LV
0.00
39%41%R+2.0 0.6 1.0 R+2.3
Jul 3-7
7/3-7
Gravis Marketing602LV
0.00
42%51%R+9.0 0.7 1.4 R+6.9
Jun 19-22
6/19-22
YouGov821LV
0.00
40%50%R+10.0 0.8 2.3 R+6.9
Jun 8-17
6/8-17
YouGov1,200RV
0.00
36%41%R+5.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 R+2.0
May 29-Jun 5
5/29-6/5
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
D
1,000LV
0.00
43%49%R+6.0 0.9 1.7 R+6.8
May 23-29
5/23-29
Quinnipiac University961RV
0.00
39%50%R+11.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 R+11.2
May 21-28
5/21-28
Baselice & Associates Inc.
R
601LV
0.00
36%48%R+12.0 1.0 4.9 R+6.1
May 21-22
5/21-22
Public Policy Polling
D
861V
0.00
42%48%R+6.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 R+7.0
May 19-21
5/19-21
JMC Enterprises
R
575LV
0.00
40%47%R+7.0 1.0 3.1 R+2.8
Apr 12-17
4/12-17
Quinnipiac University1,029RV
0.00
44%47%R+3.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 R+3.1
Jan 17-18
1/17-18
Public Policy Polling
D
757V
0.00
37%45%R+8.0 0.1 0.1 1.9 R+9.9
Dec 12-14
12/12-14
WPA Intelligence
R
600LV
0.00
34%52%R+18.0 0.4 6.5 R+11.9
Weighted averageR+5.3
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Georgia57
Florida56D+3.0
Arizona54D+1.8
Louisiana51No race
Missouri48D+0.5
Kansas46
South Carolina46
Oklahoma44
North Carolina43No race
Indiana40D+3.0

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Toss-up
EVEND+0.6
Inside Elections
Likely R
R+12.1R+11.2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans R
R+6.7R+7.1
AverageR+6.3R+5.9

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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