Texas

Lean R

1 in 4

Chance the Democrat wins (26.3%)

3 in 4

Chance the Republican wins (73.7%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Texas

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+5.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+10.1

    CANTOR

  • D+0.5

    Fundamentals

  • R+6.6

    Experts

  • R+5.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+4.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+5.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Texas

We've collected 19 polls for the Texas Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
O'Rourke
Cruz
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 11-17
9/11-17
Quinnipiac University807LV
1.41
45%54%R+9.0 <0.1 1.6 R+10.6
Sep 6-9
9/6-9
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research800LV
0.88
44%47%R+3.0 <0.1 1.1 R+1.9
Sep 6-7
9/6-7
Dixie Strategies519LV
0.69
42%46%R+4.1 <0.1 0.3 R+4.4
Aug 22-25
8/22-25
Emerson College550RV
0.47
37%38%R+1.0 0.5 0.3 1.1 R+2.3
Aug 12-16
8/12-16
Marist College759RV
0.51
45%49%R+4.0 0.5 0.5 1.2 R+5.1
Aug 1-2
8/1-2
Public Policy Polling
D
797V
0.22
42%46%R+4.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 R+5.2
Jul 26-31
7/26-31
Quinnipiac University1,118RV
0.09
43%49%R+6.0 0.5 0.6 1.6 R+7.3
Jul 9-25
7/9-25
Texas Lyceum441LV
0.12
39%41%R+2.0 0.6 1.3 R+2.5
Jul 3-7
7/3-7
Gravis Marketing602LV
0.09
42%51%R+9.0 0.7 1.0 R+7.1
Jun 19-22
6/19-22
YouGov821LV
0.07
40%50%R+10.0 0.8 2.5 R+6.5
Jun 8-17
6/8-17
YouGov1,200RV
0.05
36%41%R+5.0 0.5 0.8 2.5 R+1.9
May 29-Jun 5
5/29-6/5
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
D
1,000LV
0.04
43%49%R+6.0 0.9 1.3 R+6.1
May 23-29
5/23-29
Quinnipiac University961RV
0.00
39%50%R+11.0 0.5 0.9 1.6 R+11.9
May 21-28
5/21-28
Baselice & Associates Inc.
R
601LV
0.02
36%48%R+12.0 0.9 4.6 R+6.2
May 21-22
5/21-22
Public Policy Polling
D
861V
0.00
42%48%R+6.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 R+6.7
May 19-21
5/19-21
JMC Enterprises575LV
0.02
40%47%R+7.0 1.0 0.2 R+5.5
Apr 12-17
4/12-17
Quinnipiac University1,029RV
0.00
44%47%R+3.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 R+3.8
Jan 17-18
1/17-18
Public Policy Polling
D
757V
0.00
37%45%R+8.0 0.3 0.3 1.7 R+9.6
Dec 12-14
12/12-14
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
R
600LV
0.00
34%52%R+18.0 0.1 7.0 R+11.1

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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