Utah

Solid R

<1 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (0.1%)

>99 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (99.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Utah

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+32.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+10.5

    CANTOR

  • R+26.6

    Fundamentals

  • R+28.2

    Experts

  • R+32.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+29.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+29.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Utah

We've collected five polls for the Utah Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Wilson
Romney
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug 22-31
8/22-31
Dan Jones & Associates809LV
1.02
29%55%R+26.0 0.1 <0.1 R+25.8
Aug 11-27
8/11-27
Lighthouse Research2,400RV
1.12
19%59%R+40.0 0.6 0.3 1.6 R+38.6
Jun 11-18
6/11-18
University of Utah654RV
0.11
20%58%R+38.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 R+37.5
Jan 15-18
1/15-18
Dan Jones & Associates803RV
0.00
19%64%R+45.0 0.6 0.1 <0.1 R+45.4
Nov 16-21
11/16-21
Dan Jones & Associates600RV
0.00
21%72%R+51.0 0.6 0.2 <0.1 R+51.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments