Virginia

Solid D

59 in 60

Chance the Democrat wins (98.5%)

1 in 60

Chance the Republican wins (1.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Virginia

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+14.8

    Adjusted polls

  • D+13.8

    CANTOR

  • D+20.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+24.1

    Experts

  • D+14.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+16.6

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+19.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Virginia

We've collected seven polls for the Virginia Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Kaine
Stewart
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 4-9
9/4-9
SSRS512LV
1.04
52%36%D+16.0 <0.1 0.7 D+15.3
Aug 22-24
8/22-24
Cygnal1,119LV
0.92
50%46%D+4.5 0.2 5.5 D+10.3
Aug 12-19
8/12-19
Roanoke College512LV
0.35
51%34%D+17.0 0.3 1.3 D+18.7
Jul 10-30
7/10-30
Virginia Commonwealth University747LV
0.26
49%26%D+23.0 0.5 2.5 D+21.1
Jun 21-25
6/21-25
Quinnipiac University1,153RV
0.18
54%36%D+18.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 D+16.8
May 20-30
5/20-30
Roanoke College555RV
0.00
44%33%D+11.0 0.6 0.8 1.3 D+12.7
Feb 5-28
2/5-28
Christopher Newport University1,562RV
0.01
56%32%D+24.0 0.6 0.4 3.1 D+20.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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