Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
West Virginia
Likely D
7 in 8
Chance the Democrat wins (87.9%)
1 in 8
Chance the Republican wins (12.1%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in West Virginia
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+7.7
Adjusted polls
R+3.9
CANTOR
D+8.0
Fundamentals
D+6.3
Experts
D+7.7
Lite
D+7.5
Classic
D+7.1
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 22 polls for the West Virginia Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Manchin | Morrisey | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Oct 28-31 10/28-31 | Emerson College | 1,013 | LV | 2.58 | 47% | 42% | D+5.8 | — |  <0.1 | 0.6 | D+6.4 |
Oct 19-30 10/19-30 | Research America Inc. | 400 | LV | 0.76 | 45% | 40% | D+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+6.4 |
Oct 12-19 10/12-19 | Strategic Research Associates | 650 | LV | 0.65 | 52% | 36% | D+16.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.4 | D+18.4 |
Oct 16-18 10/16-18 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates R | 600 | LV | 0.58 | 44% | 46% | R+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 4.1 | D+2.1 |
Oct 13-15 10/13-15 | Vox Populi Polling | 789 | LV | 0.64 | 53% | 47% | D+6.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | D+6.7 |
Oct 11-13 10/11-13 | The Polling Company Inc. R | 600 | LV | 0.36 | 49% | 45% | D+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 5.3 | D+9.2 |
Oct 7-9 10/7-9 | Public Opinion Strategies R | 600 | LV | 0.42 | 41% | 40% | D+1.0 | — | <0.1 | 4.7 | D+5.6 |
Sep 17-26 9/17-26 | Strategic Research Associates | 650 | LV | 0.07 | 46% | 38% | D+8.0 | — | 0.1 | 2.4 | D+10.3 |
Sep 24-25 9/24-25 | 1892 Polling R | 500 | LV | 0.14 | 45% | 45% | EVEN | — | 0.1 | 6.1 | D+6.0 |
Sep 23-25 9/23-25 | Tarrance Group R | 612 | LV | 0.20 | 47% | 43% | D+4.0 | — | 0.1 | 4.6 | D+8.5 |
Sep 19-23 9/19-23 | Global Strategy Group D | 601 | LV | 0.14 | 48% | 36% | D+12.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.9 | D+10.0 |
Sep 13-15 9/13-15 | Emerson College | 825 | RV | 0.02 | 45% | 33% | D+11.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | D+12.0 |
Aug 23-26 8/23-26 | Harper Polling R | 600 | LV | 0.04 | 47% | 41% | D+6.0 | — | 0.1 | 4.9 | D+11.0 |
Aug 16-26 8/16-26 | Research America Inc. | 404 | LV | 0.00 | 46% | 38% | D+8.0 | — | 0.2 | 1.4 | D+9.6 |
Jul 13-16 7/13-16 | Trafalgar Group | 1,158 | LV | 0.01 | 50% | 40% | D+10.4 | — | 0.6 | 1.4 | D+12.5 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 800 | LV | 0.00 | 54% | 41% | D+13.2 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | D+15.0 |
Jun 14-19 6/14-19 | Monmouth University | 527 | LV | 0.00 | 50% | 41% | D+9.3 | — | 0.9 | 0.2 | D+9.9 |
Jun 12-13 6/12-13 | Public Policy Polling | 633 | V | 0.00 | 49% | 42% | D+7.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | D+6.6 |
May 22 5/22 | Gravis Marketing | 543 | LV | 0.00 | 52% | 40% | D+12.5 | — | 1.0 | 1.4 | D+14.9 |
May 15-16 5/15-16 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group D | 602 | LV | 0.00 | 52% | 40% | D+12.0 | — | 1.1 | 3.1 | D+10.0 |
May 13-16 5/13-16 | Global Strategy Group D | 600 | LV | 0.00 | 49% | 41% | D+7.5 | — | 1.1 | 1.9 | D+6.6 |
May 10 5/10 | WPA Intelligence | 400 | LV | 0.00 | 44% | 46% | R+2.0 | — | 1.1 | 5.0 | D+4.1 |
Weighted averageD+7.7
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 73 | No race | |
| Arkansas | 61 | — | |
| Oklahoma | 52 | — | |
| Alabama | 51 | — | |
| Tennessee | 50 | R+4.7 | |
| Missouri | 48 | D+0.5 | |
| Mississippi (special) | 43 | R+17.0 | |
| Mississippi | 43 | R+14.9 | |
| Indiana | 43 | D+3.0 | |
| South Carolina | 40 | — |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | D+6.7 | D+7.4 | |
| Inside Elections | D+4.4 | D+5.3 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+6.7 | D+6.3 | |
| Average | D+5.9 | D+6.3 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
Comments