7 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (87.9%)

1 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (12.1%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in West Virginia

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+7.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+3.9

    CANTOR

  • D+8.0

    Fundamentals

  • D+6.3

    Experts

  • D+7.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+7.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+7.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 22 polls for the West Virginia Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Manchin
Morrisey
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Oct 28-31
10/28-31
Emerson College1,013LV
2.58
47%42%D+5.8 <0.1 0.6 D+6.4
Oct 19-30
10/19-30
Research America Inc.400LV
0.76
45%40%D+5.0 <0.1 1.4 D+6.4
Oct 12-19
10/12-19
Strategic Research Associates650LV
0.65
52%36%D+16.0 <0.1 2.4 D+18.4
Oct 16-18
10/16-18
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
R
600LV
0.58
44%46%R+2.0 <0.1 4.1 D+2.1
Oct 13-15
10/13-15
Vox Populi Polling789LV
0.64
53%47%D+6.0 <0.1 0.7 D+6.7
Oct 11-13
10/11-13
The Polling Company Inc.
R
600LV
0.36
49%45%D+4.0 <0.1 5.3 D+9.2
Oct 7-9
10/7-9
Public Opinion Strategies
R
600LV
0.42
41%40%D+1.0 <0.1 4.7 D+5.6
Sep 17-26
9/17-26
Strategic Research Associates650LV
0.07
46%38%D+8.0 0.1 2.4 D+10.3
Sep 24-25
9/24-25
1892 Polling
R
500LV
0.14
45%45%EVEN 0.1 6.1 D+6.0
Sep 23-25
9/23-25
Tarrance Group
R
612LV
0.20
47%43%D+4.0 0.1 4.6 D+8.5
Sep 19-23
9/19-23
Global Strategy Group
D
601LV
0.14
48%36%D+12.0 0.1 1.9 D+10.0
Sep 13-15
9/13-15
Emerson College825RV
0.02
45%33%D+11.7 0.2 0.1 0.6 D+12.0
Aug 23-26
8/23-26
Harper Polling
R
600LV
0.04
47%41%D+6.0 0.1 4.9 D+11.0
Aug 16-26
8/16-26
Research America Inc.404LV
0.00
46%38%D+8.0 0.2 1.4 D+9.6
Jul 13-16
7/13-16
Trafalgar Group1,158LV
0.01
50%40%D+10.4 0.6 1.4 D+12.5
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey800LV
0.00
54%41%D+13.2 0.8 1.0 D+15.0
Jun 14-19
6/14-19
Monmouth University527LV
0.00
50%41%D+9.3 0.9 0.2 D+9.9
Jun 12-13
6/12-13
Public Policy Polling633V
0.00
49%42%D+7.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 D+6.6
May 22
5/22
Gravis Marketing543LV
0.00
52%40%D+12.5 1.0 1.4 D+14.9
May 15-16
5/15-16
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
602LV
0.00
52%40%D+12.0 1.1 3.1 D+10.0
May 13-16
5/13-16
Global Strategy Group
D
600LV
0.00
49%41%D+7.5 1.1 1.9 D+6.6
May 10
5/10
WPA Intelligence400LV
0.00
44%46%R+2.0 1.1 5.0 D+4.1
Weighted averageD+7.7
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Kentucky73No race
Arkansas61
Oklahoma52
Alabama51
Tennessee50R+4.7
Missouri48D+0.5
Mississippi (special)43R+17.0
Mississippi43R+14.9
Indiana43D+3.0
South Carolina40

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Lean D
D+6.7D+7.4
Inside Elections
Tilt D
D+4.4D+5.3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans D
D+6.7D+6.3
AverageD+5.9D+6.3

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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