West Virginia

Likely D

8 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (88.5%)

1 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (11.5%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in West Virginia

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+10.1

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.8

    CANTOR

  • D+8.3

    Fundamentals

  • D+7.7

    Experts

  • D+10.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+9.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+8.6

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in West Virginia

We've collected 11 polls for the West Virginia Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Manchin
Morrisey
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 13-15
9/13-15
Emerson College825RV
1.31
45%33%D+12.0 0.6 <0.1 1.2 D+10.2
Aug 23-26
8/23-26
Harper Polling
R
600LV
0.41
47%41%D+6.0 0.2 4.2 D+10.4
Aug 16-26
8/16-26
Research America Inc.404LV
0.30
46%38%D+8.0 0.3 0.8 D+9.2
Jul 13-16
7/13-16
Trafalgar Group1,158LV
0.16
50%40%D+10.4 0.5 1.2 D+9.9
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey800LV
0.04
54%41%D+13.2 0.7 2.0 D+16.1
Jun 14-19
6/14-19
Monmouth University527LV
0.07
50%41%D+9.3 0.7 1.4 D+8.8
Jun 12-13
6/12-13
Public Policy Polling633RV
0.05
48%39%D+9.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 D+8.7
May 22
5/22
Gravis Marketing543LV
0.02
52%40%D+12.5 0.9 1.3 D+15.0
May 15-16
5/15-16
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
602LV
0.02
52%40%D+12.0 0.9 4.1 D+9.1
May 13-16
5/13-16
Global Strategy Group
D
600LV
0.02
49%41%D+7.5 0.9 2.1 D+6.6
May 10
5/10
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research400LV
0.01
44%46%R+2.0 0.9 4.9 D+4.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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