Election 2018

Wisconsin

Solid D

39 in 40

Chance the Democrat wins (97.7%)

1 in 40

Chance the Republican wins (2.3%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Wisconsin

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+12.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+12.2

    CANTOR

  • D+16.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+16.3

    Experts

  • D+12.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+12.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+14.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 16 polls for the Wisconsin Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Baldwin
Vukmir
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Research Co.450RV
1.08
50%39%D+11.0 0.2 <0.1 0.5 D+11.3
Oct 29-31
10/29-31
Emerson College604LV
1.59
53%44%D+8.7— <0.1 0.6 D+9.3
Oct 24-28
10/24-28
Marquette Law School1,154LV
2.13
54%43%D+11.0— <0.1 2.6 D+13.6
Oct 12-18
10/12-18
Ipsos1,193LV
0.88
54%39%D+15.2— <0.1 0.6 D+15.8
Oct 10-11
10/10-11
Public Policy Polling
D
816V
0.42
52%42%D+10.0 0.1 <0.1 1.9 D+8.0
Oct 3-7
10/3-7
Marquette Law School799LV
0.17
53%43%D+10.0— <0.1 2.6 D+12.5
Sep 30-Oct 4
9/30-10/4
Marist College571LV
0.34
54%40%D+14.0— <0.1 0.5 D+13.5
Sep 14-21
9/14-21
Ipsos1,109LV
0.05
52%39%D+13.0— 0.1 0.6 D+13.5
Sep 12-16
9/12-16
Marquette Law School614LV
0.02
53%42%D+11.0— 0.1 2.6 D+13.4
Aug 18-24
8/18-24
Suffolk University500LV
0.03
50%42%D+7.6— 0.2 0.3 D+7.5
Aug 15-19
8/15-19
Marquette Law School601LV
0.00
49%47%D+2.0— 0.3 2.6 D+4.9
Jul 26-28
7/26-28
Emerson College632RV
0.00
50%36%D+14.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 D+15.7
Jul 15-19
7/15-19
Marist College906RV
0.00
55%38%D+17.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 D+16.9
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey897LV
0.00
57%41%D+15.6— 0.8 1.0 D+17.4
Jun 13-17
6/13-17
Marquette Law School800RV
0.00
49%40%D+9.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 D+12.3
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
910V
0.00
51%39%D+12.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 D+10.8
Weighted averageD+12.2
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Iowa81—
Michigan80D+10.7
Minnesota78D+20.4
Minnesota (special)78D+8.5
Pennsylvania75D+11.7
Ohio74D+11.9
Indiana65D+3.0
Missouri60D+0.5
Nebraska59R+15.5
New Hampshire58—

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Likely D
D+12.1D+12.7
Inside Elections
Solid D
D+23.5D+24.4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
D+12.1D+11.7
AverageD+15.9D+16.3

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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