Wisconsin

Solid D

29 in 30

Chance the Democrat wins (97.0%)

1 in 30

Chance the Republican wins (3.0%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Wisconsin

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+12.5

    Adjusted polls

  • D+13.2

    CANTOR

  • D+17.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+12.0

    Experts

  • D+12.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+14.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+13.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Wisconsin

We've collected eight polls for the Wisconsin Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Baldwin
Vukmir
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 12-16
9/12-16
Marquette University Law School614LV
1.23
53%42%D+11.0 <0.1 3.2 D+14.2
Aug 18-24
8/18-24
Suffolk University500LV
0.45
50%42%D+7.6 0.3 0.6 D+8.5
Aug 15-19
8/15-19
Marquette University Law School601LV
0.21
49%47%D+2.0 0.3 3.2 D+5.7
Jul 26-28
7/26-28
Emerson College632RV
0.22
50%36%D+14.0 0.7 0.5 1.1 D+12.9
Jul 15-19
7/15-19
Marist College906RV
0.25
55%38%D+17.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 D+16.2
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey897.2LV
0.04
57%41%D+15.6 0.7 2.0 D+18.5
Jun 13-17
6/13-17
Marquette University Law School800RV
0.01
49%40%D+9.0 0.7 0.7 3.2 D+12.5
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
910V
0.00
51%39%D+12.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 D+10.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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