UPDATED Sep. 20, 2018, at 11:37 PM

Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm called Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game.

But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic forecast for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

Sign in using Google or Facebook to save your selections, and check back next week to see how well you did against FiveThirtyEight and everybody else playing the game.

Week 3

/ forecasts completed

Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BuffaloBUFAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
MinnesotaMINHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
CincinnatiCINAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
CarolinaCARHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
DenverDENAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BaltimoreBALHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
Green BayGBAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
WashingtonWSHHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
IndianapolisINDAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
PhiladelphiaPHIHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
New OrleansNOAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
AtlantaATLHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
N.Y. GiantsNYGAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
HoustonHOUHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
OaklandOAKAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
MiamiMIAHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
San FranciscoSFAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
Kansas CityKCHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
TennesseeTENAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
JacksonvilleJAXHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 4:05 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
L.A. ChargersLACAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
L.A. RamsLARHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
ChicagoCHIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
ArizonaARIHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
DallasDALAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
SeattleSEAHome
Sunday, Sept. 23
at 8:20 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 23 at 8:20 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
New EnglandNEAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
DetroitDETHome
Monday, Sept. 24
at 8:15 p.m.
Monday, Sept. 24 at 8:15 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
PittsburghPITAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
Tampa BayTBHome

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Week 3 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
NYJ at CLE
NYJ 17,
CLE 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoN.Y. JetsNYJat " + game.team1 + "-logoClevelandCLENYJ62%NYJ 17, CLE 21
Week 3 pointsWeek 3 pointsWeek 3 points

Week 2 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
SEA at CHI
SEA 17,
CHI 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoSeattleSEAat " + game.team1 + "-logoChicagoCHISEA54%SEA 17, CHI 24
NYG at DAL
NYG 13,
DAL 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoN.Y. GiantsNYGat " + game.team1 + "-logoDallasDALDAL76%NYG 13, DAL 20
NE at JAX
NE 20,
JAX 31
" + game.team2 + "-logoNew EnglandNEat " + game.team1 + "-logoJacksonvilleJAXNE56%NE 20, JAX 31
OAK at DEN
OAK 19,
DEN 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoOaklandOAKat " + game.team1 + "-logoDenverDENDEN63%OAK 19, DEN 20
ARI at LAR
ARI 0,
LAR 34
" + game.team2 + "-logoArizonaARIat " + game.team1 + "-logoL.A. RamsLARLAR74%ARI 0, LAR 34
DET at SF
DET 27,
SF 30
" + game.team2 + "-logoDetroitDETat " + game.team1 + "-logoSan FranciscoSFSF58%DET 27, SF 30
CAR at ATL
CAR 24,
ATL 31
" + game.team2 + "-logoCarolinaCARat " + game.team1 + "-logoAtlantaATLATL62%CAR 24, ATL 31
CLE at NO
CLE 18,
NO 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoClevelandCLEat " + game.team1 + "-logoNew OrleansNONO85%CLE 18, NO 21
HOU at TEN
HOU 17,
TEN 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoHoustonHOUat " + game.team1 + "-logoTennesseeTENTEN70%HOU 17, TEN 20
IND at WSH
IND 21,
WSH 9
" + game.team2 + "-logoIndianapolisINDat " + game.team1 + "-logoWashingtonWSHWSH75%IND 21, WSH 9
KC at PIT
KC 42,
PIT 37
" + game.team2 + "-logoKansas CityKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoPittsburghPITPIT58%KC 42, PIT 37
LAC at BUF
LAC 31,
BUF 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoL.A. ChargersLACat " + game.team1 + "-logoBuffaloBUFBUF53%LAC 31, BUF 20
MIA at NYJ
MIA 20,
NYJ 12
" + game.team2 + "-logoMiamiMIAat " + game.team1 + "-logoN.Y. JetsNYJNYJ61%MIA 20, NYJ 12
MIN at GB
MIN 29,
GB 29
" + game.team2 + "-logoMinnesotaMINat " + game.team1 + "-logoGreen BayGBMIN60%MIN 29, GB 29
PHI at TB
PHI 21,
TB 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoPhiladelphiaPHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoTampa BayTBPHI63%PHI 21, TB 27
BAL at CIN
BAL 23,
CIN 34
" + game.team2 + "-logoBaltimoreBALat " + game.team1 + "-logoCincinnatiCINBAL50%BAL 23, CIN 34
Week 2 pointsWeek 2 pointsWeek 2 points

Week 1 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
LAR at OAK
LAR 33,
OAK 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoL.A. RamsLARat " + game.team1 + "-logoOaklandOAKLAR50%LAR 33, OAK 13
NYJ at DET
NYJ 48,
DET 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoN.Y. JetsNYJat " + game.team1 + "-logoDetroitDETDET71%NYJ 48, DET 17
CHI at GB
CHI 23,
GB 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoChicagoCHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoGreen BayGBGB63%CHI 23, GB 24
DAL at CAR
DAL 8,
CAR 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoDallasDALat " + game.team1 + "-logoCarolinaCARCAR60%DAL 8, CAR 16
SEA at DEN
SEA 24,
DEN 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoSeattleSEAat " + game.team1 + "-logoDenverDENSEA54%SEA 24, DEN 27
WSH at ARI
WSH 24,
ARI 6
" + game.team2 + "-logoWashingtonWSHat " + game.team1 + "-logoArizonaARIARI61%WSH 24, ARI 6
KC at LAC
KC 38,
LAC 28
" + game.team2 + "-logoKansas CityKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoL.A. ChargersLACLAC56%KC 38, LAC 28
BUF at BAL
BUF 3,
BAL 47
" + game.team2 + "-logoBuffaloBUFat " + game.team1 + "-logoBaltimoreBALBAL64%BUF 3, BAL 47
CIN at IND
CIN 34,
IND 23
" + game.team2 + "-logoCincinnatiCINat " + game.team1 + "-logoIndianapolisINDCIN50%CIN 34, IND 23
HOU at NE
HOU 20,
NE 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoHoustonHOUat " + game.team1 + "-logoNew EnglandNENE86%HOU 20, NE 27
JAX at NYG
JAX 20,
NYG 15
" + game.team2 + "-logoJacksonvilleJAXat " + game.team1 + "-logoN.Y. GiantsNYGJAX58%JAX 20, NYG 15
PIT at CLE
PIT 21,
CLE 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoPittsburghPITat " + game.team1 + "-logoClevelandCLEPIT79%PIT 21, CLE 21
SF at MIN
SF 16,
MIN 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoSan FranciscoSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoMinnesotaMINMIN76%SF 16, MIN 24
TB at NO
TB 48,
NO 40
" + game.team2 + "-logoTampa BayTBat " + game.team1 + "-logoNew OrleansNONO74%TB 48, NO 40
TEN at MIA
TEN 20,
MIA 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoTennesseeTENat " + game.team1 + "-logoMiamiMIAMIA53%TEN 20, MIA 27
ATL at PHI
ATL 12,
PHI 18
" + game.team2 + "-logoAtlantaATLat " + game.team1 + "-logoPhiladelphiaPHIPHI65%ATL 12, PHI 18
Week 1 pointsWeek 1 pointsWeek 1 points

Saving …

/forecasts completed

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