Updated Oct. 30, 2019 at 11:53 PM

2019 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/30Wednesday, Oct. 308:08 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1580+28+0=160848%6
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1591+1+24=161652%2
10/29Tuesday, Oct. 298:07 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1576+221=159741%7
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1595+29+23=164759%2
10/27Sunday, Oct. 278:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1593+48+0=164163%7
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
157930+24=157337%1
10/26Saturday, Oct. 268:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
158825+0=156341%8
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1584+1+24=160959%1
10/25Friday, Oct. 258:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1585+21=158647%4
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
15869+23=160053%1
10/23Wednesday, Oct. 238:07 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1581+20+0=160141%12
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1591+34+24=164959%3
10/22Tuesday, Oct. 228:08 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1579+28+4=161138%5
HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1593+53+29=167562%4
10/19Saturday, Oct. 198:08 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Green, Chad
Green
1587173=156746%4
HOUHOUAstros
Peacock, Brad
Peacock
159122+21=159054%6
10/18Friday, Oct. 187:08 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1593+33+0=162651%1
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
1584+14+24=162249%4
10/17Thursday, Oct. 178:08 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1590+1+2=159343%8
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1588+14+26=162857%3
10/15Tuesday, Oct. 158:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
154210+0=153237%4
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1577+2+24=160363%7
10/15Tuesday, Oct. 154:08 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1587+521=163851%4
NYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1591+19+23=163349%1
10/14Monday, Oct. 147:38 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1546+441=158945%1
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1573+18+23=161455%8
10/13Sunday, Oct. 138:08 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
1592+15+0=160743%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1586+35+24=164557%3
10/12Saturday, Oct. 128:08 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1587+9+4=160046%7
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1590+3+26=161954%0
10/12Saturday, Oct. 124:08 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1572+25+0=159757%3
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
154813+24=155943%1
10/11Friday, Oct. 118:08 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1569122=155547%2
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1550+0+24=157453%0
10/10Thursday, Oct. 107:07 p.m.TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1552+01=155130%1
HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1589+51+23=166370%6
10/9Wednesday, Oct. 98:37 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1566+232=158741%7
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1596+17+22=163559%3
10/9Wednesday, Oct. 95:02 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1544+45+0=158951%13
ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1544+16+24=158449%1
10/8Tuesday, Oct. 87:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1592+43+0=163566%1
TBTBRays
Castillo, Diego
Castillo
154923+24=155034%4
10/7Monday, Oct. 78:40 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1585+191=160354%5
MINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1540+19+23=158246%1
10/7Monday, Oct. 76:40 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
15993+0=159647%1
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1562+24+24=161053%6
10/7Monday, Oct. 73:07 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
15463+0=154346%4
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15436+24=156154%5
10/7Monday, Oct. 71:05 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1597+91=160552%3
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1544+29+23=159648%10
10/6Sunday, Oct. 67:45 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1596+102=160456%10
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
156614+22=157444%4
10/6Sunday, Oct. 64:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1544+20+0=156452%3
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
154518+24=155148%1
10/5Saturday, Oct. 59:07 p.m.TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1545+14+0=155931%1
HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1596+45+24=166569%3
10/5Saturday, Oct. 55:07 p.m.MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
1542+3+0=154537%2
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1582+6+24=161263%8
10/4Friday, Oct. 49:37 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1563+21+0=158442%4
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1599+4+24=162758%2
10/4Friday, Oct. 47:07 p.m.MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1545+11+4=156038%4
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
1580+18+28=162662%10
10/4Friday, Oct. 44:37 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1547+48+0=159554%0
ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1541+11+24=157646%3
10/4Friday, Oct. 42:05 p.m.TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1547+22=154729%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1594+41+28=166371%6
10/3Thursday, Oct. 38:37 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1566+62=157037%0
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1596+13+29=163863%6
10/3Thursday, Oct. 35:02 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1546+0+5=155146%7
ATLATLBraves
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1543+0+28=157154%6
10/2Wednesday, Oct. 28 p.m.TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1544+30+1=157545%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1559+15+26=160055%1
10/1Tuesday, Oct. 18:08 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1529+172=154436%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1565+30+26=162164%4
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:15 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Holland, Derek
Holland
153223+0=150936%0
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1544+45+24=161364%9
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:15 p.m.MINMINTwins
Perez, Martin
Perez
154629+0=151762%4
KCKCRoyals
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
142919+24=143438%5
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:10 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Roark, Tanner
Roark
156110+0=155158%1
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1464+5+24=149342%3
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1544+24+0=156853%6
NYMNYMMets
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
15327+24=154947%7
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
15301+0=152955%3
COLCOLRockies
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
148112+24=149345%4
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:10 p.m.DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1385+13+0=139840%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Detwiler, Ross
Detwiler
146114+24=147160%5
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Baez, Michel
Baez
14612+0=145939%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
15176+24=153561%1
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:07 p.m.TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1546+17+0=156359%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Buchholz, Clay
Buchholz
1471+4+24=149941%8
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1593+47+0=164071%8
LAALAAAngels
Peters, Dillon
Peters
147511+24=148829%5
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1549+33+0=158254%2
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
156229+24=155746%8
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Green, Chad
Green
158213+0=156955%1
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1470+42+24=153645%6
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
15942+0=159264%9
SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
14765+24=149536%0
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149231+0=146145%3
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1470+0+24=149455%1
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1431+14+0=144538%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Parker, Blake
Parker
15064+24=152662%3
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Shepherd, Chandler
Shepherd
141310+0=140326%4
BOSBOSRed Sox
Rodriguez, Eduardo
Rodriguez
1533+24+24=158174%5
9/28Saturday, Sept. 289:10 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15608+0=155256%1
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1465+23+24=151244%0
9/28Saturday, Sept. 289:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1593+42+0=163572%6
LAALAAAngels
Suarez, Jose
Suarez
147629+24=147128%3
9/28Saturday, Sept. 288:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
15315+0=152655%2
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
148010+24=149445%3
9/28Saturday, Sept. 288:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
1462+12+0=147440%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1516+5+24=154560%6
9/28Saturday, Sept. 288:05 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1586+21+0=160769%4
TEXTEXRangers
Farrell, Luke
Farrell
146625+24=146531%9
9/28Saturday, Sept. 287:15 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
15315+0=152645%8
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15459+24=156055%6
9/28Saturday, Sept. 287:15 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1546+13+0=155954%0
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
153023+24=153146%3
9/28Saturday, Sept. 287:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Sims, Lucas
Sims
149029+0=146146%4
PITPITPirates
Marvel, James
Marvel
14719+24=148654%2
9/28Saturday, Sept. 287 p.m.DETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
1383+3+0=138636%4
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14621+24=148564%3
9/28Saturday, Sept. 286:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
1433+1+0=143438%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150511+24=151862%9
9/28Saturday, Sept. 284:05 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
155029+0=152139%7
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1561+11+24=159661%10
9/28Saturday, Sept. 284:05 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1593+8+0=160165%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14776+24=149535%0
9/28Saturday, Sept. 283:40 p.m.DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1385+17+0=140238%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
14611+26=148662%7
9/28Saturday, Sept. 283:07 p.m.TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
1548+3+0=155158%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
14691+24=149242%4
9/28Saturday, Sept. 282:15 p.m.MINMINTwins
Stashak, Cody
Stashak
154516+0=152964%4
KCKCRoyals
Sparkman, Glenn
Sparkman
143021+24=143336%3
9/28Saturday, Sept. 281:05 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1410+34+0=144436%9
BOSBOSRed Sox
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
153619+24=154164%4
9/27Friday, Sept. 2710:15 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1591+162=160563%9
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1478+9+24=151137%2
9/27Friday, Sept. 2710:10 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1561+1+0=156260%3
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1464+2+24=149040%4
9/27Friday, Sept. 2710:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
159131+0=156057%4
LAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
1478+6+24=150843%0
9/27Friday, Sept. 279:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
146322=145942%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
151527+26=151458%6
9/27Friday, Sept. 278:15 p.m.MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1544+103=155164%6
KCKCRoyals
Skoglund, Eric
Skoglund
14316+26=145136%2
9/27Friday, Sept. 278:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
153333=152756%7
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
147816+21=148344%11
9/27Friday, Sept. 278:05 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
1584+211=160468%14
TEXTEXRangers
Palumbo, Joe
Palumbo
146821+24=147132%7
9/27Friday, Sept. 278 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152853=152044%8
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15488+23=156356%2
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1547+31=154950%2
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15294+24=154950%4
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:10 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1407+1+0=140831%4
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
153910+20=154969%1
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:07 p.m.TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
154711=154556%6
TORTORBlue Jays
Zeuch, T.J.
Zeuch
1471+3+26=150044%2
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:05 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1552263=152345%2
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
155826+24=155655%8
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:05 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1491+82=149751%5
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14701+24=149349%6
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1433+11=143338%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
15046+22=152062%5
9/26Thursday, Sept. 2610:10 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1560+133=157064%3
SEASEAMariners
Hernandez, Felix
Hernandez
146519+24=147036%1
9/26Thursday, Sept. 2610:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Miley, Wade
Miley
1592383=155157%3
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
1477+5+24=150643%4
9/26Thursday, Sept. 268:10 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
15566+0=155060%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
14572+24=147940%8
9/26Thursday, Sept. 267:10 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
14312+0=142932%4
NYMNYMMets
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1531+4+24=155968%2
9/26Thursday, Sept. 267:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
153010+0=152051%5
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+19+24=151149%9
9/26Thursday, Sept. 264:05 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
15051+0=150436%3
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1557+19+24=160064%6
9/26Thursday, Sept. 263:45 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1480+3+0=148349%3
SFSFGiants
Beede, Tyler
Beede
147613+24=148751%8
9/26Thursday, Sept. 263:40 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1590+2+0=159264%1
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1464+7+24=149536%0
9/26Thursday, Sept. 262:05 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Lakins, Travis
Lakins
154011+0=152951%5
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1466+32+24=152249%7
9/26Thursday, Sept. 261:10 p.m.MINMINTwins
Smeltzer, Devin
Smeltzer
15434+0=153969%10
DETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
138611+24=139931%4
9/26Thursday, Sept. 2612:35 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1532+1+0=153350%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1493+19+24=153650%3
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 2510:10 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1591+7+0=159868%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
146619+24=147132%0
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 2510:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158910+0=157960%6
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1465+18+24=150740%4
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 2510 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1559+15+0=157458%3
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1477+16+24=151742%2
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 259:45 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Melville, Tim
Melville
148112+0=146943%1
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1475+15+24=151457%2
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 258:15 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
154524+0=152159%10
KCKCRoyals
Montgomery, Mike
Montgomery
1433+3+24=146041%2
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 258:10 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1559+14+0=157365%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Detwiler, Ross
Detwiler
145413+24=146535%8
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 258:05 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
153811+0=152755%10
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
1469+1+24=149445%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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