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More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Giannis Antetokounmpo | G. Antetokounmpo | 1 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 37 | SAME | +3.6 | +3.5 | |||||||
Khris Middleton | K. Middleton | 0 | 11 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 35 | SAME | +1.5 | -0.1 | |||||||
Eric Bledsoe | E. Bledsoe | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | SAME | +2.3 | +0.6 | |||||||
Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | SAME | +1.5 | -0.4 | |||||||
Brook Lopez | B. Lopez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | SAME | +0.1 | +2.7 | |||||||
Nikola Mirotic | N. Mirotic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 26 | SAME | +0.7 | +0.5 | |||||||
George Hill | G. Hill | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | SAME | +0.5 | +0.5 | |||||||
Pat Connaughton | P. Connaughton | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 | SAME | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
Ersan Ilyasova | E. Ilyasova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | SAME | -0.4 | +0.8 | |||||||
Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | SAME | -1.7 | -0.4 | |||||||
Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -1.2 | |||||||
D.J. Wilson | D. Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | +0.7 | |||||||
Pau Gasol | P. Gasol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | +2.4 | |||||||
Donte DiVincenzo | D. DiVincenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | -0.2 | |||||||
Tim Frazier | T. Frazier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -1.0 | |||||||
Bonzie Colson | B. Colson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.4 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.7 | +5.1 | |||||||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 67 | ||||||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1801 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Giannis Antetokounmpo | G. Antetokounmpo | 1 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 37 | +3.6 | +3.5 | ||||
Khris Middleton | K. Middleton | 0 | 11 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 35 | +1.5 | -0.1 | ||||
Eric Bledsoe | E. Bledsoe | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | +2.3 | +0.6 | ||||
Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | +1.5 | -0.4 | ||||
Brook Lopez | B. Lopez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | +0.1 | +2.7 | ||||
Nikola Mirotic | N. Mirotic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 26 | +0.7 | +0.5 | ||||
George Hill | G. Hill | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ||||
Pat Connaughton | P. Connaughton | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Ersan Ilyasova | E. Ilyasova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -0.4 | +0.8 | ||||
Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.4 | ||||
Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | -1.2 | ||||
D.J. Wilson | D. Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | +0.7 | ||||
Pau Gasol | P. Gasol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | +2.4 | ||||
Donte DiVincenzo | D. DiVincenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | -0.2 | ||||
Tim Frazier | T. Frazier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | -1.0 | ||||
Bonzie Colson | B. Colson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | -0.4 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.7 | +5.1 | |||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 67 | ||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1801 |
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