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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 9:56 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Milwaukee Bucks have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 14% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis Antetokounmpo*G. Antetokounmpo*231214839+5
+3.7
+3.0
Khris Middleton*K. Middleton*06290035+3
+1.1
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe32000032+3
+2.4
+0.5
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon000000-24
+1.4
-0.5
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic000000-22
+0.8
+0.4
Brook LopezB. Lopez00003030+9
-0.2
+2.4
George HillG. Hill000000-19
0.0
0.0
Tony Snell*T. Snell*02320025+8
-0.2
-1.2
Ersan Ilyasova*E. Ilyasova*000131023+8
-0.4
+0.6
Pau GasolP. Gasol000000-10
-1.2
+2.3
Sterling BrownS. Brown000000-8
-1.8
-0.4
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson00014014+8
-1.7
+1.2
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo000000-3
-1.3
-0.1
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton01650021+21
-0.2
-0.5
Christian WoodC. Wood000707+7
-1.6
0.0
Trevon DuvalT. Duval14000014+14
-2.3
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.6
+3.6
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+3.2
+3.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1665
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo001016834
+3.7
+3.0
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton02300032
+1.1
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe29000029
+2.4
+0.5
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon12300024
+1.4
-0.5
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic00220022
+0.8
+0.4
Brook LopezB. Lopez00002121
-0.2
+2.4
George HillG. Hill18100019
0.0
0.0
Tony SnellT. Snell01520017
-0.2
-1.2
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova0006915
-0.4
+0.6
Pau GasolP. Gasol00001010
-1.2
+2.3
Sterling BrownS. Brown044008
-1.8
-0.4
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson000606
-1.7
+1.2
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo030003
-1.3
-0.1
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton000000
-0.2
-0.5
Christian WoodC. Wood000000
-1.6
0.0
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000
-2.3
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.7
+3.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
61
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1715
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo111217637+3
+3.7
+3.0
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton012212035+3
+1.1
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe30000030+1
+2.4
+0.5
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon22700029+5
+1.4
-0.5
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic00027027+5
+0.8
+0.4
Brook LopezB. Lopez00002828+7
-0.2
+2.4
George HillG. Hill15600021+2
0.0
0.0
Tony SnellT. Snell02150017SAME
-0.2
-1.2
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova00021012-3
-0.4
+0.6
Pau GasolP. Gasol000044-6
-1.2
+2.3
Sterling BrownS. Brown000000-8
-1.8
-0.4
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson000000-6
-1.7
+1.2
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo000000-3
-1.3
-0.1
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton000000SAME
-0.2
-0.5
Christian WoodC. Wood000000SAME
-1.6
0.0
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000SAME
-2.3
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.0
+3.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
64
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1751
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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