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UPDATED Jun. 13, 2019, at 11:52 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Milwaukee Bucks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo111118637SAME
+3.6
+3.5
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton011222035SAME
+1.5
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe30000030SAME
+2.3
+0.6
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon12800029SAME
+1.5
-0.4
Brook LopezB. Lopez00002929SAME
+0.1
+2.7
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic00026026SAME
+0.7
+0.5
George HillG. Hill16500021SAME
+0.5
+0.5
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton03140017SAME
0.0
0.0
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova00011314SAME
-0.4
+0.8
Sterling BrownS. Brown001102SAME
-1.7
-0.4
Tony SnellT. Snell000000SAME
-0.4
-1.2
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson000000SAME
-2.0
+0.7
Pau GasolP. Gasol000000SAME
-1.2
+2.4
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo000000SAME
-1.3
-0.2
Tim FrazierT. Frazier000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Bonzie ColsonB. Colson000000SAME
-1.5
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.7
+5.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
67
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1801
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo111118637
+3.6
+3.5
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton011222035
+1.5
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe30000030
+2.3
+0.6
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon12800029
+1.5
-0.4
Brook LopezB. Lopez00002929
+0.1
+2.7
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic00026026
+0.7
+0.5
George HillG. Hill16500021
+0.5
+0.5
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton03140017
0.0
0.0
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova00011314
-0.4
+0.8
Sterling BrownS. Brown001102
-1.7
-0.4
Tony SnellT. Snell000000
-0.4
-1.2
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson000000
-2.0
+0.7
Pau GasolP. Gasol000000
-1.2
+2.4
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo000000
-1.3
-0.2
Tim FrazierT. Frazier000000
-0.9
-1.0
Bonzie ColsonB. Colson000000
-1.5
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.7
+5.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
67
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1801
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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