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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Milwaukee Bucks have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo00721634SAME
+3.1
+2.8
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton00320032SAME
+1.5
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe28000028+1
+2.2
+0.2
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon22100023+1
+1.2
-0.9
Brook LopezB. Lopez00002424SAME
0.0
+1.4
George HillG. Hill18200020+1
+0.6
-0.6
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova00091221SAME
-0.6
+0.4
Tony SnellT. Snell01350018+1
-0.3
-0.9
Sterling BrownS. Brown0925016SAME
-1.5
-0.2
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson00012012+1
-1.2
+1.2
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo000000-6
-1.2
-0.3
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton032005SAME
-0.4
-0.3
Thon MakerT. Maker000145+1
-1.4
+0.8
Jason SmithJ. Smith000022SAME
-3.0
+0.6
Jaylen MorrisJ. Morris000000SAME
-1.7
-0.8
Christian WoodC. Wood000000SAME
-1.4
+0.3
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000SAME
-2.4
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.8
+2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1656
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo00721634
+3.1
+2.8
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton00302032
+1.5
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe27000027
+2.2
+0.2
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon12100022
+1.2
-0.9
Brook LopezB. Lopez00002424
0.0
+1.4
George HillG. Hill17200019
+0.6
-0.6
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova00091221
-0.6
+0.4
Tony SnellT. Snell01160017
-0.3
-0.9
Sterling BrownS. Brown0925016
-1.5
-0.2
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson00011011
-1.2
+1.2
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo330006
-1.2
-0.3
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton023005
-0.4
-0.3
Thon MakerT. Maker000044
-1.4
+0.8
Jason SmithJ. Smith000022
-3.0
+0.6
Jaylen MorrisJ. Morris000000
-1.7
-0.8
Christian WoodC. Wood000000
-1.4
+0.3
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000
-2.4
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.6
+2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1651
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Giannis AntetokounmpoG. Antetokounmpo011122438+4
+3.1
+2.8
Khris MiddletonK. Middleton011221034+2
+1.5
-0.1
Eric BledsoeE. Bledsoe30000030+3
+2.2
+0.2
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon02900029+7
+1.2
-0.9
Brook LopezB. Lopez00003030+6
0.0
+1.4
George HillG. Hill18600024+5
+0.6
-0.6
Ersan IlyasovaE. Ilyasova00014923+2
-0.6
+0.4
Tony SnellT. Snell01150016-1
-0.3
-0.9
Sterling BrownS. Brown000909-7
-1.5
-0.2
D.J. WilsonD. Wilson000202-9
-1.2
+1.2
Donte DiVincenzoD. DiVincenzo000000-6
-1.2
-0.3
Pat ConnaughtonP. Connaughton000000-5
-0.4
-0.3
Thon MakerT. Maker000055+1
-1.4
+0.8
Jason SmithJ. Smith000000-2
-3.0
+0.6
Jaylen MorrisJ. Morris000000SAME
-1.7
-0.8
Christian WoodC. Wood000000SAME
-1.4
+0.3
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000SAME
-2.4
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.1
+2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
59
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1688
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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