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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Memphis Grizzlies have a 12% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Marc GasolM. Gasol000000-33
-0.2
+2.5
Mike ConleyM. Conley33000033SAME
+3.1
-0.5
Garrett TempleG. Temple016160032+2
-1.5
+0.4
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson000000-25
-1.4
+2.7
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.00032427+5
-1.7
+2.2
JaMychal GreenJ. Green00026026+5
-1.6
-0.2
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday017130030+11
-0.8
+0.2
Shelvin MackS. Mack81500023+6
-0.8
-1.3
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks000000-15
-1.1
-0.8
Joakim NoahJ. Noah00011415+5
-3.0
+2.1
Omri CasspiO. Casspi0086014+7
-1.3
+0.5
Ivan RabbI. Rabb00012012+7
-1.1
+0.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter700007+4
-0.9
-0.4
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe00110011+11
-2.2
-0.7
Jarnell StokesJ. Stokes00001010+10
0.0
0.0
Chandler ParsonsC. Parsons000000SAME
-1.2
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.8
+1.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
34
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1436
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Marc GasolM. Gasol00003333
-0.2
+2.5
Mike ConleyM. Conley33000033
+3.1
-0.5
Garrett TempleG. Temple02640030
-1.5
+0.4
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson01222025
-1.4
+2.7
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.00018422
-1.7
+2.2
JaMychal GreenJ. Green00021021
-1.6
-0.2
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday01630019
-0.8
+0.2
Shelvin MackS. Mack12500017
-0.8
-1.3
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks00150015
-1.1
-0.8
Joakim NoahJ. Noah0001910
-3.0
+2.1
Omri CasspiO. Casspi004307
-1.3
+0.5
Ivan RabbI. Rabb000325
-1.1
+0.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter300003
-0.9
-0.4
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe000000
-2.2
-0.7
Jarnell StokesJ. Stokes000000
0.0
0.0
Chandler ParsonsC. Parsons000000
-1.2
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.1
+3.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1524
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Marc GasolM. Gasol00003737+4
-0.2
+2.5
Mike ConleyM. Conley34000034+1
+3.1
-0.5
Garrett TempleG. Temple02570032+2
-1.5
+0.4
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson00281029+4
-1.4
+2.7
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.00019726+4
-1.7
+2.2
JaMychal GreenJ. Green00123024+3
-1.6
-0.2
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday02130024+5
-0.8
+0.2
Shelvin MackS. Mack14200016-1
-0.8
-1.3
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks009009-6
-1.1
-0.8
Joakim NoahJ. Noah000347-3
-3.0
+2.1
Omri CasspiO. Casspi000202-5
-1.3
+0.5
Ivan RabbI. Rabb000000-5
-1.1
+0.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter000000-3
-0.9
-0.4
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe000000SAME
-2.2
-0.7
Jarnell StokesJ. Stokes000000SAME
0.0
0.0
Chandler ParsonsC. Parsons000000SAME
-1.2
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.9
+4.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
45
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1544
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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