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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Memphis Grizzlies have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Mike ConleyM. Conley34000034SAME
+3.4
-0.8
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday011230034SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Avery BradleyA. Bradley03000030SAME
-1.6
-1.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.000000-28
-2.1
+1.8
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson000000-29
-1.6
+2.8
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas000000-23
-0.5
+1.3
Delon WrightD. Wright14700021+1
+0.7
+0.6
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks000000-20
-1.2
-0.7
Joakim Noah*J. Noah*00003838+24
-2.2
+2.8
Ivan Rabb*I. Rabb*000241034+27
-1.3
-0.2
C.J. MilesC. Miles000000-1
-0.7
-1.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter000000SAME
-1.9
-0.4
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey000000SAME
-0.8
-1.8
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe007007+7
-2.8
-0.3
Bruno CabocloB. Caboclo009009+9
-1.1
-0.8
Julian WashburnJ. Washburn008008+8
-1.4
-0.2
Chandler Parsons*C. Parsons*00124025+25
-1.9
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.4
+1.7
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-7.8
-3.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
15
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1205
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Mike ConleyM. Conley34000034
+3.4
-0.8
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday012220034
-1.2
-0.3
Avery BradleyA. Bradley03000030
-1.6
-1.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.000141428
-2.1
+1.8
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson00524029
-1.6
+2.8
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas00002323
-0.5
+1.3
Delon WrightD. Wright14600020
+0.7
+0.6
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks00200020
-1.2
-0.7
Joakim NoahJ. Noah00031114
-2.2
+2.8
Ivan RabbI. Rabb000707
-1.3
-0.2
C.J. MilesC. Miles001001
-0.7
-1.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter000000
-1.9
-0.4
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey000000
-0.8
-1.8
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe000000
-2.8
-0.3
Bruno CabocloB. Caboclo000000
-1.1
-0.8
Julian WashburnJ. Washburn000000
-1.4
-0.2
Chandler ParsonsC. Parsons000000
-1.9
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.9
+2.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
40
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1495
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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