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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Memphis Grizzlies have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Mike ConleyM. Conley33000033SAME
+3.7
-0.8
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday017160033+2
-1.5
-0.1
Avery BradleyA. Bradley000000-28
-1.5
-1.3
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.000000-26
-2.1
+1.9
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson000000-24
-1.6
+2.9
Jonas Valanciunas*J. Valanciunas*00003939+17
-0.5
+1.3
Delon WrightD. Wright101200022+4
+0.2
+0.5
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks000000-17
-1.2
-0.7
Joakim NoahJ. Noah000000-16
-2.1
+2.7
Ivan Rabb*I. Rabb*00024933+21
-1.0
0.0
C.J. MilesC. Miles000000-8
-0.7
-1.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter5800013+10
-2.4
-0.3
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey01100011+10
-1.0
-1.8
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe00130013+12
-2.5
-0.3
Bruno CabocloB. Caboclo00100010+10
-1.1
-0.8
Julian WashburnJ. Washburn009009+9
-1.4
-0.2
Chandler Parsons*C. Parsons*00024024+24
-1.7
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.8
+0.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-3.6
-1.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
28
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1374
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Mike ConleyM. Conley33000033
+3.7
-0.8
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday013180031
-1.5
-0.1
Avery BradleyA. Bradley02800028
-1.5
-1.3
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.000161026
-2.1
+1.9
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson00420024
-1.6
+2.9
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas00002222
-0.5
+1.3
Delon WrightD. Wright12600018
+0.2
+0.5
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks00170017
-1.2
-0.7
Joakim NoahJ. Noah00001616
-2.1
+2.7
Ivan RabbI. Rabb00012012
-1.0
0.0
C.J. MilesC. Miles008008
-0.7
-1.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter210003
-2.4
-0.3
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey100001
-1.0
-1.8
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe001001
-2.5
-0.3
Bruno CabocloB. Caboclo000000
-1.1
-0.8
Julian WashburnJ. Washburn000000
-1.4
-0.2
Chandler ParsonsC. Parsons000000
-1.7
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.1
+2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1486
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Mike ConleyM. Conley34000034+1
+3.7
-0.8
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday012220034+3
-1.5
-0.1
Avery BradleyA. Bradley03000030+2
-1.5
-1.3
Jaren Jackson Jr.J. Jackson Jr.000141428+2
-2.1
+1.9
Kyle AndersonK. Anderson00524029+5
-1.6
+2.9
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas00002323+1
-0.5
+1.3
Delon WrightD. Wright14600020+2
+0.2
+0.5
Dillon BrooksD. Brooks00200020+3
-1.2
-0.7
Joakim NoahJ. Noah00031114-2
-2.1
+2.7
Ivan RabbI. Rabb000707-5
-1.0
0.0
C.J. MilesC. Miles001001-7
-0.7
-1.1
Jevon CarterJ. Carter000000-3
-2.4
-0.3
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey000000-1
-1.0
-1.8
Yuta WatanabeY. Watanabe000000-1
-2.5
-0.3
Bruno CabocloB. Caboclo000000SAME
-1.1
-0.8
Julian WashburnJ. Washburn000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
Chandler ParsonsC. Parsons000000SAME
-1.7
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.0
+2.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
40
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1499
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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