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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Utah Jazz have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell122600038SAME
+1.5
+0.1
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003535SAME
+0.3
+4.7
Joe InglesJ. Ingles001222034+2
+1.2
+1.1
Ricky RubioR. Rubio29000029SAME
+0.6
+0.9
Derrick FavorsD. Favors000161026SAME
-0.3
+2.6
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder00253028SAME
+0.3
-0.6
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale01182021SAME
-1.5
+2.0
Dante ExumD. Exum000000-15
-1.1
-0.6
Kyle KorverK. Korver01033016+4
-0.2
-1.0
Grayson AllenG. Allen710008+7
-2.0
-2.7
Georges NiangG. Niang000202+2
-1.2
-1.1
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha000000SAME
-1.6
+2.1
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000033SAME
-1.3
+3.2
Raul NetoR. Neto000000SAME
-0.4
-0.4
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000SAME
-2.0
-1.5
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000SAME
-0.8
-0.6
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000SAME
-0.9
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.4
+6.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1701
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell102800038
+1.5
+0.1
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003535
+0.3
+4.7
Joe InglesJ. Ingles001121032
+1.2
+1.1
Ricky RubioR. Rubio29000029
+0.6
+0.9
Derrick FavorsD. Favors000161026
-0.3
+2.6
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder00235028
+0.3
-0.6
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale09120021
-1.5
+2.0
Dante ExumD. Exum9600015
-1.1
-0.6
Kyle KorverK. Korver0426012
-0.2
-1.0
Grayson AllenG. Allen010001
-2.0
-2.7
Georges NiangG. Niang000000
-1.2
-1.1
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha000000
-1.6
+2.1
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000033
-1.3
+3.2
Raul NetoR. Neto000000
-0.4
-0.4
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000
-2.0
-1.5
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000
-0.8
-0.6
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000
-0.9
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.4
+6.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
61
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1708
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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