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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Utah Jazz have a 95% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell162000036+2
+1.3
0.0
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003232SAME
0.0
+4.5
Joe InglesJ. Ingles061314033+3
+0.8
+1.6
Ricky RubioR. Rubio000000-25
+0.5
+0.9
Derrick FavorsD. Favors00016925+2
-0.5
+1.9
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder00198027+7
+0.4
-0.4
Dante ExumD. Exum000000-18
-0.5
-0.7
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale03160019+2
-1.9
+1.1
Kyle KorverK. Korver01900019+4
-0.1
-1.0
Grayson AllenG. Allen18000018+8
-1.3
-2.3
Georges NiangG. Niang000808+1
-1.5
-0.5
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha000000-5
-1.8
+1.8
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000077+4
-1.5
+3.3
Raul NetoR. Neto000000-1
-0.4
-0.7
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long14000014+14
-1.6
-1.6
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000202+2
-0.6
-0.5
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.7
+4.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
50
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1588
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell23200034
+1.3
0.0
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003232
0.0
+4.5
Joe InglesJ. Ingles001317030
+0.8
+1.6
Ricky RubioR. Rubio25000025
+0.5
+0.9
Derrick FavorsD. Favors000101323
-0.5
+1.9
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder00146020
+0.4
-0.4
Dante ExumD. Exum18000018
-0.5
-0.7
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale01160017
-1.9
+1.1
Kyle KorverK. Korver0258015
-0.1
-1.0
Grayson AllenG. Allen2800010
-1.3
-2.3
Georges NiangG. Niang000707
-1.5
-0.5
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha050005
-1.8
+1.8
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000033
-1.5
+3.3
Raul NetoR. Neto100001
-0.4
-0.7
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000
-1.6
-1.6
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000
-0.6
-0.5
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000
-0.9
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.1
+4.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
54
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1629
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell102700037+3
+1.3
0.0
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003535+3
0.0
+4.5
Joe InglesJ. Ingles002110031+1
+0.8
+1.6
Ricky RubioR. Rubio30000030+5
+0.5
+0.9
Derrick FavorsD. Favors00018927+4
-0.5
+1.9
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder001315028+8
+0.4
-0.4
Dante ExumD. Exum71100018SAME
-0.5
-0.7
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale03140017SAME
-1.9
+1.1
Kyle KorverK. Korver0505010-5
-0.1
-1.0
Grayson AllenG. Allen120003-7
-1.3
-2.3
Georges NiangG. Niang000000-7
-1.5
-0.5
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha000000-5
-1.8
+1.8
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000044+1
-1.5
+3.3
Raul NetoR. Neto000000-1
-0.4
-0.7
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000SAME
-1.6
-1.6
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000SAME
-0.6
-0.5
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.7
+5.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1672
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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