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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Utah Jazz have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell62800034SAME
+1.6
0.0
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003232SAME
+0.3
+4.6
Joe InglesJ. Ingles00238031+1
+1.0
+1.3
Ricky RubioR. Rubio28000028+3
+0.5
+0.7
Derrick FavorsD. Favors000111223+1
-0.3
+2.5
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder00148022+1
+0.3
-0.4
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale0659020+1
-1.5
+1.6
Dante ExumD. Exum000000-17
-1.0
-0.7
Kyle KorverK. Korver0853016+1
-0.2
-0.9
Grayson AllenG. Allen11100012+2
-1.9
-2.7
Georges NiangG. Niang000808+1
-1.6
-1.1
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha051107+2
-1.8
+2.0
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000044+1
-1.6
+3.2
Raul NetoR. Neto300003+3
-0.2
-0.3
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000SAME
-1.8
-1.6
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000SAME
-0.8
-0.7
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.5
+5.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1659
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell33100034
+1.6
0.0
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003232
+0.3
+4.6
Joe InglesJ. Ingles00237030
+1.0
+1.3
Ricky RubioR. Rubio25000025
+0.5
+0.7
Derrick FavorsD. Favors00091322
-0.3
+2.5
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder001110021
+0.3
-0.4
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale0487019
-1.5
+1.6
Dante ExumD. Exum17000017
-1.0
-0.7
Kyle KorverK. Korver0258015
-0.2
-0.9
Grayson AllenG. Allen3700010
-1.9
-2.7
Georges NiangG. Niang000707
-1.6
-1.1
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha041005
-1.8
+2.0
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000033
-1.6
+3.2
Raul NetoR. Neto000000
-0.2
-0.3
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000
-1.8
-1.6
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000
-0.8
-0.7
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000
-0.9
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.4
+5.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
55
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1645
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Donovan MitchellD. Mitchell102800038+4
+1.6
0.0
Rudy GobertR. Gobert00003535+3
+0.3
+4.6
Joe InglesJ. Ingles00248032+2
+1.0
+1.3
Ricky RubioR. Rubio29000029+4
+0.5
+0.7
Derrick FavorsD. Favors00017926+4
-0.3
+2.5
Jae CrowderJ. Crowder001315028+7
+0.3
-0.4
Royce O'NealeR. O'Neale01073020+1
-1.5
+1.6
Dante ExumD. Exum9600015-2
-1.0
-0.7
Kyle KorverK. Korver0345012-3
-0.2
-0.9
Grayson AllenG. Allen010001-9
-1.9
-2.7
Georges NiangG. Niang000000-7
-1.6
-1.1
Thabo SefoloshaT. Sefolosha000000-5
-1.8
+2.0
Ekpe UdohE. Udoh000044+1
-1.6
+3.2
Raul NetoR. Neto000000SAME
-0.2
-0.3
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000SAME
-1.8
-1.6
Tyler CavanaughT. Cavanaugh000000SAME
-0.8
-0.7
Tony BradleyT. Bradley000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.4
+6.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1703
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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