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UPDATED Jun. 13, 2019, at 11:52 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic219130034SAME
+2.0
-0.3
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000000-35
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.015190034SAME
+0.7
-1.8
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith00026026SAME
-1.3
+0.1
Maxi KleberM. Kleber00071623SAME
-1.1
+1.8
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson23000023+2
-0.5
-1.6
J.J. BareaJ. Barea000000-16
+0.6
-1.7
Trey BurkeT. Burke22000022+13
+1.0
-2.2
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson001211023+4
-0.5
-1.0
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00001919+7
-2.0
-0.2
Courtney LeeC. Lee01140015+6
-0.8
-0.9
Dwight PowellD. Powell00011112+10
+1.2
+0.8
Devin HarrisD. Harris130004+4
-0.5
-1.3
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff000000SAME
-1.0
-0.5
Salah MejriS. Mejri000022+2
-2.5
+2.9
Daryl MaconD. Macon000000SAME
-1.8
-1.3
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000303+3
-3.9
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.5
-3.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
32
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1419
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic219130034
+2.0
-0.3
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000161935
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.020140034
+0.7
-1.8
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith001016026
-1.3
+0.1
Maxi KleberM. Kleber00071623
-1.1
+1.8
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson21000021
-0.5
-1.6
J.J. BareaJ. Barea16000016
+0.6
-1.7
Trey BurkeT. Burke900009
+1.0
-2.2
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00118019
-0.5
-1.0
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00011112
-2.0
-0.2
Courtney LeeC. Lee090009
-0.8
-0.9
Dwight PowellD. Powell000022
+1.2
+0.8
Devin HarrisD. Harris000000
-0.5
-1.3
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff000000
-1.0
-0.5
Salah MejriS. Mejri000000
-2.5
+2.9
Daryl MaconD. Macon000000
-1.8
-1.3
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000000
-3.9
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
-1.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1477
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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