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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Dallas Mavericks have a 5% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic121255034SAME
+1.7
-0.2
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes001913032SAME
0.0
-1.2
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00003030+1
-1.0
+3.1
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00041115SAME
-1.8
+0.4
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews02820030+6
-0.1
-1.0
Dennis SmithD. Smith000000-22
-0.6
-0.9
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith00213024+2
-1.5
-0.2
J.J. BareaJ. Barea000000-18
+0.9
-2.1
Maxi KleberM. Kleber00016016+1
-1.2
+1.7
Dwight PowellD. Powell0007411+1
0.0
+1.5
Devin HarrisD. Harris16000016+7
-0.1
-0.6
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson15000015+9
-1.1
-0.9
Salah MejriS. Mejri000033+1
-2.7
+3.2
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff080008+6
-1.6
-0.6
Ray SpaldingR. Spalding000000SAME
-2.1
+0.8
Daryl MaconD. Macon500005+5
-1.5
-1.5
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo001001+1
-3.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.2
+0.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1467
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic01888034
+1.7
-0.2
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes002111032
0.0
-1.2
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00002929
-1.0
+3.1
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00021315
-1.8
+0.4
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews02310024
-0.1
-1.0
Dennis SmithD. Smith19300022
-0.6
-0.9
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith00166022
-1.5
-0.2
J.J. BareaJ. Barea18000018
+0.9
-2.1
Maxi KleberM. Kleber00015015
-1.2
+1.7
Dwight PowellD. Powell0006410
0.0
+1.5
Devin HarrisD. Harris540009
-0.1
-0.6
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson600006
-1.1
-0.9
Salah MejriS. Mejri000022
-2.7
+3.2
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff002002
-1.6
-0.6
Ray SpaldingR. Spalding000000
-2.1
+0.8
Daryl MaconD. Macon000000
-1.5
-1.5
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000000
-3.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.3
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1470
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic015712034SAME
+1.7
-0.2
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes002213035+3
0.0
-1.2
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00003232+3
-1.0
+3.1
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00041317+2
-1.8
+0.4
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews02740031+7
-0.1
-1.0
Dennis SmithD. Smith28100029+7
-0.6
-0.9
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith00159024+2
-1.5
-0.2
J.J. BareaJ. Barea20000020+2
+0.9
-2.1
Maxi KleberM. Kleber00010010-5
-1.2
+1.7
Dwight PowellD. Powell000033-7
0.0
+1.5
Devin HarrisD. Harris050005-4
-0.1
-0.6
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson000000-6
-1.1
-0.9
Salah MejriS. Mejri000000-2
-2.7
+3.2
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff000000-2
-1.6
-0.6
Ray SpaldingR. Spalding000000SAME
-2.1
+0.8
Daryl MaconD. Macon000000SAME
-1.5
-1.5
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000000SAME
-3.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.2
-0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1460
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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