shoe gif

UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 9:56 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

shoe gif

The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic022120034SAME
+1.9
-0.4
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000707-25
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.013190032+1
+0.9
-1.7
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith00225027+2
-1.2
0.0
Maxi KleberM. Kleber000000-21
-1.2
+1.7
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson20000020+3
-0.6
-1.5
J.J. BareaJ. Barea000000-17
+0.7
-1.7
Trey BurkeT. Burke20000020+6
+0.6
-2.5
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00814022+5
-1.0
-1.2
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00001818+6
-2.0
-0.1
Courtney LeeC. Lee01120013+5
-0.6
-1.0
Dwight PowellD. Powell00021921+13
+1.0
+0.7
Devin HarrisD. Harris800008+5
-0.4
-1.3
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff015006+6
-1.7
-0.5
Salah MejriS. Mejri00001111+10
-2.7
+2.9
Daryl MaconD. Macon010001+1
-1.5
-1.3
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000000SAME
-3.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.6
-2.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
32
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1416
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic020140034
+1.9
-0.4
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000151732
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.019120031
+0.9
-1.7
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith00718025
-1.2
0.0
Maxi KleberM. Kleber000111021
-1.2
+1.7
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson17000017
-0.6
-1.5
J.J. BareaJ. Barea17000017
+0.7
-1.7
Trey BurkeT. Burke14000014
+0.6
-2.5
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00134017
-1.0
-1.2
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00001212
-2.0
-0.1
Courtney LeeC. Lee062008
-0.6
-1.0
Dwight PowellD. Powell000088
+1.0
+0.7
Devin HarrisD. Harris030003
-0.4
-1.3
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff000000
-1.7
-0.5
Salah MejriS. Mejri000011
-2.7
+2.9
Daryl MaconD. Macon000000
-1.5
-1.3
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000000
-3.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
-1.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1470
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic219130034SAME
+1.9
-0.4
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000161935+3
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.020140034+3
+0.9
-1.7
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith001017027+2
-1.2
0.0
Maxi KleberM. Kleber00071623+2
-1.2
+1.7
Jalen BrunsonJ. Brunson20000020+3
-0.6
-1.5
J.J. BareaJ. Barea17000017SAME
+0.7
-1.7
Trey BurkeT. Burke900009-5
+0.6
-2.5
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00118019+2
-1.0
-1.2
Dirk NowitzkiD. Nowitzki00001111-1
-2.0
-0.1
Courtney LeeC. Lee090009+1
-0.6
-1.0
Dwight PowellD. Powell000022-6
+1.0
+0.7
Devin HarrisD. Harris000000-3
-0.4
-1.3
Ryan BroekhoffR. Broekhoff000000SAME
-1.7
-0.5
Salah MejriS. Mejri000000-1
-2.7
+2.9
Daryl MaconD. Macon000000SAME
-1.5
-1.3
Kostas AntetokounmpoK. Antetokounmpo000000SAME
-3.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.1
-1.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1469
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments