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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Denver Nuggets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00092736SAME
+4.4
+2.8
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray26900035SAME
+2.2
-1.3
Gary HarrisG. Harris019130032SAME
+0.5
-0.1
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00030030SAME
+0.5
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton41670027SAME
-0.7
-1.3
Torrey CraigT. Craig00210021SAME
-0.9
-0.4
Monte MorrisM. Morris18000018SAME
+1.3
-0.5
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley0470011SAME
+0.9
-2.2
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee00001717SAME
-0.6
+2.2
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez000808SAME
-0.8
0.0
Trey LylesT. Lyles000145SAME
-1.2
-0.2
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas000000SAME
+1.7
-3.3
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000000SAME
-1.4
+1.0
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.000000SAME
-1.9
-0.2
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000SAME
-0.8
+0.2
Brandon GoodwinB. Goodwin000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000000SAME
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.0
+1.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1671
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00092736
+4.4
+2.8
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray26900035
+2.2
-1.3
Gary HarrisG. Harris019130032
+0.5
-0.1
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00030030
+0.5
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton41670027
-0.7
-1.3
Torrey CraigT. Craig00210021
-0.9
-0.4
Monte MorrisM. Morris18000018
+1.3
-0.5
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley0470011
+0.9
-2.2
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee00001717
-0.6
+2.2
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez000808
-0.8
0.0
Trey LylesT. Lyles000145
-1.2
-0.2
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas000000
+1.7
-3.3
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000000
-1.4
+1.0
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.000000
-1.9
-0.2
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000
-0.8
+0.2
Brandon GoodwinB. Goodwin000000
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000000
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.0
+1.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1671
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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