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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Denver Nuggets have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00032932SAME
+4.6
+2.2
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray112200033SAME
+1.8
-1.5
Gary HarrisG. Harris017110028+1
+1.2
-0.5
Monte MorrisM. Morris22000022+1
+1.5
-0.4
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley01190020+1
+1.1
-1.9
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00023023SAME
+0.5
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton08100018+1
+0.2
-1.3
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas15000015SAME
+1.8
-3.4
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez00017017SAME
-0.8
-0.2
Torrey CraigT. Craig008008+1
-1.3
-0.4
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.000000-5
-1.9
-0.2
Trey LylesT. Lyles0003912SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee00001010SAME
-0.4
+2.2
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000202SAME
-1.2
+0.7
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000SAME
-0.9
+0.2
Brandon GoodwinB. Goodwin000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000000SAME
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.1
-1.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
54
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1629
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00032932
+4.6
+2.2
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray122100033
+1.8
-1.5
Gary HarrisG. Harris01980027
+1.2
-0.5
Monte MorrisM. Morris21000021
+1.5
-0.4
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley01180019
+1.1
-1.9
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00023023
+0.5
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton07100017
+0.2
-1.3
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas15000015
+1.8
-3.4
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez00017017
-0.8
-0.2
Torrey CraigT. Craig007007
-1.3
-0.4
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.005005
-1.9
-0.2
Trey LylesT. Lyles0003912
-1.2
-0.3
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee00001010
-0.4
+2.2
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000202
-1.2
+0.7
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000
-0.9
+0.2
Brandon GoodwinB. Goodwin000000
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000000
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.8
-0.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
53
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1625
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00092635+3
+4.6
+2.2
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray181600034+1
+1.8
-1.5
Gary HarrisG. Harris018120030+3
+1.2
-0.5
Monte MorrisM. Morris23000023+2
+1.5
-0.4
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley00230023+4
+1.1
-1.9
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00028028+5
+0.5
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton014100024+7
+0.2
-1.3
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas700007-8
+1.8
-3.4
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez00011011-6
-0.8
-0.2
Torrey CraigT. Craig003003-4
-1.3
-0.4
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.000000-5
-1.9
-0.2
Trey LylesT. Lyles00001212SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee000077-3
-0.4
+2.2
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000000-2
-1.2
+0.7
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000SAME
-0.9
+0.2
Brandon GoodwinB. Goodwin000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000033+3
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.5
-0.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1652
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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