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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Denver Nuggets have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00023234+2
+4.5
+2.3
Gary HarrisG. Harris000000-32
+1.6
-0.9
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray171700034+5
+1.6
-1.5
Paul MillsapP. Millsap001315028+4
-0.1
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton01200012-9
+0.9
-1.0
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez00618024+3
+0.3
+0.1
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas000000-19
+2.4
-3.6
Monte MorrisM. Morris23000023+7
+1.2
-0.4
Trey LylesT. Lyles000000-19
-1.0
-0.2
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.000000-9
-1.9
-0.2
Torrey CraigT. Craig00210021+14
-1.7
-0.6
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley01640020+16
+0.3
-1.4
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee0008917+10
-0.6
+2.2
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000000SAME
-1.0
+0.3
Tyler LydonT. Lydon004509+9
-0.5
+0.3
DeVaughn Akoon-PurcellD. Akoon-Purcell8300011+11
-1.9
-0.8
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000077+7
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.5
+1.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
53
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1626
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00003232
+4.5
+2.3
Gary HarrisG. Harris017150032
+1.6
-0.9
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray131600029
+1.6
-1.5
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00321024
-0.1
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton01560021
+0.9
-1.0
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez00417021
+0.3
+0.1
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas19000019
+2.4
-3.6
Monte MorrisM. Morris16000016
+1.2
-0.4
Trey LylesT. Lyles00010919
-1.0
-0.2
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.009009
-1.9
-0.2
Torrey CraigT. Craig007007
-1.7
-0.6
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley004004
+0.3
-1.4
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee000077
-0.6
+2.2
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000000
-1.0
+0.3
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000
-0.5
+0.3
DeVaughn Akoon-PurcellD. Akoon-Purcell000000
-1.9
-0.8
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000000
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.8
-0.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
54
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1628
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic00072835+3
+4.5
+2.3
Gary HarrisG. Harris023120035+3
+1.6
-0.9
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray251200037+8
+1.6
-1.5
Paul MillsapP. Millsap00623029+5
-0.1
+2.3
Will BartonW. Barton013160029+8
+0.9
-1.0
Juan HernangomezJ. Hernangomez00818026+5
+0.3
+0.1
Isaiah ThomasI. Thomas15000015-4
+2.4
-3.6
Monte MorrisM. Morris800008-8
+1.2
-0.4
Trey LylesT. Lyles00002020+1
-1.0
-0.2
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.005005-4
-1.9
-0.2
Torrey CraigT. Craig001001-6
-1.7
-0.6
Malik BeasleyM. Beasley000000-4
+0.3
-1.4
Mason PlumleeM. Plumlee000000-7
-0.6
+2.2
Jarred VanderbiltJ. Vanderbilt000000SAME
-1.0
+0.3
Tyler LydonT. Lydon000000SAME
-0.5
+0.3
DeVaughn Akoon-PurcellD. Akoon-Purcell000000SAME
-1.9
-0.8
Thomas WelshT. Welsh000000SAME
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.6
-0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1652
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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