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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The New Orleans Pelicans have a 50% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000102737SAME
+3.0
+3.3
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday231300036SAME
+2.3
+0.3
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic00019019-10
+0.7
+0.3
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore01780025+2
0.0
-1.8
Julius RandleJ. Randle00081624+1
+0.9
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton15000015-4
+0.6
-0.8
Solomon HillS. Hill00165021+2
-1.6
0.0
Darius MillerD. Miller00153018+1
+0.3
-1.1
Tim FrazierT. Frazier51000015+1
-0.8
-1.0
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson0092011+2
-2.4
+0.9
Ian ClarkI. Clark080008+2
-1.5
-2.0
Frank JacksonF. Jackson500005+1
-1.1
-3.0
Jahlil OkaforJ. Okafor000044+1
-2.1
0.0
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000112+1
-1.7
+0.6
Andrew HarrisonA. Harrison000000SAME
-0.8
-0.8
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams000000SAME
-1.1
-0.7
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett000000SAME
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.0
+0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
49
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1584
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000102737
+3.0
+3.3
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday181800036
+2.3
+0.3
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic00029029
+0.7
+0.3
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore01760023
0.0
-1.8
Julius RandleJ. Randle00061723
+0.9
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton19000019
+0.6
-0.8
Solomon HillS. Hill00181019
-1.6
0.0
Darius MillerD. Miller00152017
+0.3
-1.1
Tim FrazierT. Frazier7700014
-0.8
-1.0
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson009009
-2.4
+0.9
Ian ClarkI. Clark060006
-1.5
-2.0
Frank JacksonF. Jackson400004
-1.1
-3.0
Jahlil OkaforJ. Okafor000033
-2.1
0.0
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000011
-1.7
+0.6
Andrew HarrisonA. Harrison000000
-0.8
-0.8
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams000000
-1.1
-0.7
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett000000
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.5
+0.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
51
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1602
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000172340+3
+3.0
+3.3
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday172200039+3
+2.3
+0.3
Nikola MiroticN. Mirotic001217029SAME
+0.7
+0.3
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore019110030+7
0.0
-1.8
Julius RandleJ. Randle00052530+7
+0.9
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton26200028+9
+0.6
-0.8
Solomon HillS. Hill00156021+2
-1.6
0.0
Darius MillerD. Miller00103013-4
+0.3
-1.1
Tim FrazierT. Frazier5500010-4
-0.8
-1.0
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson000000-9
-2.4
+0.9
Ian ClarkI. Clark000000-6
-1.5
-2.0
Frank JacksonF. Jackson000000-4
-1.1
-3.0
Jahlil OkaforJ. Okafor000000-3
-2.1
0.0
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000000-1
-1.7
+0.6
Andrew HarrisonA. Harrison000000SAME
-0.8
-0.8
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams000000SAME
-1.1
-0.7
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett000000SAME
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.9
+0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
55
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1643
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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