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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The New Orleans Pelicans have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000162137SAME
+2.5
+3.3
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday000000-40
+2.5
+0.7
Julius RandleJ. Randle00026733SAME
+1.1
-0.7
Elfrid Payton*E. Payton*261200038+8
+0.2
-0.9
Darius MillerD. Miller00250025SAME
+0.3
-1.2
Jahlil OkaforJ. Okafor00001919SAME
-2.2
0.0
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams00193022SAME
-1.4
+0.4
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore000000-18
-0.3
-1.8
Frank JacksonF. Jackson22000022+13
-1.8
-2.6
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson003306+1
-2.5
+1.1
Solomon HillS. Hill001001SAME
-1.9
-0.3
Ian ClarkI. Clark01900019+19
-1.4
-2.2
Jason SmithJ. Smith000011SAME
-3.0
+0.6
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000000SAME
-1.6
+0.7
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett01700017+17
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.9
-1.3
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-1.2
-1.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
34
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1434
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000162137
+2.5
+3.3
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday112810040
+2.5
+0.7
Julius RandleJ. Randle00026733
+1.1
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton28200030
+0.2
-0.9
Darius MillerD. Miller00250025
+0.3
-1.2
Jahlil OkaforJ. Okafor00001919
-2.2
0.0
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams00193022
-1.4
+0.4
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore01800018
-0.3
-1.8
Frank JacksonF. Jackson900009
-1.8
-2.6
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson002305
-2.5
+1.1
Solomon HillS. Hill001001
-1.9
-0.3
Ian ClarkI. Clark000000
-1.4
-2.2
Jason SmithJ. Smith000011
-3.0
+0.6
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000000
-1.6
+0.7
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett000000
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.7
+0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
50
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1588
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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