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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The New Orleans Pelicans have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000151025SAME
+2.6
+3.2
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday000000-36
+2.6
+0.7
Julius RandleJ. Randle000181331SAME
+1.1
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton171500032+7
+0.1
-0.6
Darius MillerD. Miller00230023+1
+0.5
-1.3
Jahlil Okafor*J. Okafor*00002121SAME
-2.4
0.0
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams00137020SAME
-1.7
+0.1
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore000000-18
-0.3
-1.8
Frank JacksonF. Jackson26000026+11
-1.8
-2.6
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson0047011+1
-2.6
+1.1
Solomon HillS. Hill008008SAME
-1.9
0.0
Ian Clark*I. Clark*51600021+16
-1.6
-2.1
Jason SmithJ. Smith000044+1
-3.0
+0.6
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000101SAME
-1.9
+1.1
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett01700017+17
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.6
-1.8
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-3.2
-2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
27
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1365
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000151025
+2.6
+3.2
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday102600036
+2.6
+0.7
Julius RandleJ. Randle000171431
+1.1
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton23200025
+0.1
-0.6
Darius MillerD. Miller00220022
+0.5
-1.3
Jahlil Okafor*J. Okafor*00002121
-2.4
0.0
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams00137020
-1.7
+0.1
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore01530018
-0.3
-1.8
Frank JacksonF. Jackson15000015
-1.8
-2.6
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson0028010
-2.6
+1.1
Solomon HillS. Hill008008
-1.9
0.0
Ian ClarkI. Clark050005
-1.6
-2.1
Jason SmithJ. Smith000033
-3.0
+0.6
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000101
-1.9
+1.1
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett000000
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.8
-0.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+0.5
-0.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1501
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Anthony DavisA. Davis000181937+12
+2.6
+3.2
Jrue HolidayJ. Holiday112900040+4
+2.6
+0.7
Julius RandleJ. Randle000221133+2
+1.1
-0.7
Elfrid PaytonE. Payton28200030+5
+0.1
-0.6
Darius MillerD. Miller00260026+4
+0.5
-1.3
Jahlil OkaforJ. Okafor00001818-3
-2.4
0.0
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams00165021+1
-1.7
+0.1
E'Twaun MooreE. Moore01730020+2
-0.3
-1.8
Frank JacksonF. Jackson900009-6
-1.8
-2.6
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson002305-5
-2.6
+1.1
Solomon HillS. Hill001001-7
-1.9
0.0
Ian ClarkI. Clark000000-5
-1.6
-2.1
Jason SmithJ. Smith000000-3
-3.0
+0.6
Cheick DialloC. Diallo000000-1
-1.9
+1.1
Trevon BluiettT. Bluiett000000SAME
-1.8
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.8
+0.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
49
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1586
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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