shoe gif

UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

shoe gif

The San Antonio Spurs have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan022130035SAME
+1.1
-0.5
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge00033033SAME
+0.7
+0.6
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes18900027SAME
+0.1
-2.0
Rudy GayR. Gay00817025SAME
0.0
+1.4
Davis BertansD. Bertans00715022SAME
+1.5
+0.3
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli08130021SAME
+0.5
-2.4
Derrick WhiteD. White15300018SAME
0.0
+1.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills15000015SAME
+2.0
-2.0
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham00112316SAME
-1.8
-0.3
Jakob PoeltlJ. Poeltl00001111SAME
-0.4
+2.0
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV060006SAME
-2.2
-1.1
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter006006SAME
-2.0
-0.3
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000044SAME
-3.4
+0.1
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000101SAME
-2.1
+0.4
Ben MooreB. Moore000000SAME
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.3
-1.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1509
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan022130035
+1.1
-0.5
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge00033033
+0.7
+0.6
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes18900027
+0.1
-2.0
Rudy GayR. Gay00817025
0.0
+1.4
Davis BertansD. Bertans00715022
+1.5
+0.3
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli08130021
+0.5
-2.4
Derrick WhiteD. White15300018
0.0
+1.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills15000015
+2.0
-2.0
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham00112316
-1.8
-0.3
Jakob PoeltlJ. Poeltl00001111
-0.4
+2.0
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV060006
-2.2
-1.1
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter006006
-2.0
-0.3
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000044
-3.4
+0.1
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000101
-2.1
+0.4
Ben MooreB. Moore000000
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.3
-1.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1509
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan025140039+4
+1.1
-0.5
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge00082836+3
+0.7
+0.6
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes26200028+1
+0.1
-2.0
Rudy GayR. Gay001316029+4
0.0
+1.4
Davis BertansD. Bertans00618024+2
+1.5
+0.3
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli011140025+4
+0.5
-2.4
Derrick WhiteD. White101000020+2
0.0
+1.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills12000012-3
+2.0
-2.0
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham00151016SAME
-1.8
-0.3
Jakob PoeltlJ. Poeltl00001010-1
-0.4
+2.0
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV000000-6
-2.2
-1.1
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter000101-5
-2.0
-0.3
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000000-4
-3.4
+0.1
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000000-1
-2.1
+0.4
Ben MooreB. Moore000000SAME
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.3
-1.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
44
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1537
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments