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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The San Antonio Spurs have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan023160039SAME
+1.3
-0.5
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge000231437SAME
+0.6
+1.0
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes131600029+2
+0.5
-1.8
Derrick WhiteD. White26000026+1
+0.2
+1.3
Jakob Poeltl*J. Poeltl*00002626SAME
-0.2
+1.9
Dejounte MurrayD. Murray000000-20
-0.8
+1.9
Rudy GayR. Gay001116027SAME
-0.1
+1.3
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli03200023+1
+0.2
-2.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills9400013+12
+1.6
-1.9
Davis BertansD. Bertans0019010+2
+1.5
+0.2
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV020002+2
-2.1
-1.1
Donatas MotiejunasD. Motiejunas000066SAME
-1.9
+0.7
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham000022SAME
-1.9
-0.2
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter000000SAME
-2.0
-0.1
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000000SAME
-3.4
+0.2
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000000SAME
-2.2
+0.5
Ben MooreB. Moore000000SAME
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.4
+0.3
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+2.0
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1554
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan023160039
+1.3
-0.5
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge000231437
+0.6
+1.0
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes81900027
+0.5
-1.8
Derrick WhiteD. White21400025
+0.2
+1.3
Jakob Poeltl*J. Poeltl*00002626
-0.2
+1.9
Dejounte MurrayD. Murray19100020
-0.8
+1.9
Rudy GayR. Gay001017027
-0.1
+1.3
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli00220022
+0.2
-2.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills010001
+1.6
-1.9
Davis BertansD. Bertans000808
+1.5
+0.2
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV000000
-2.1
-1.1
Donatas MotiejunasD. Motiejunas000066
-1.9
+0.7
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham000022
-1.9
-0.2
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter000000
-2.0
-0.1
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000000
-3.4
+0.2
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000000
-2.2
+0.5
Ben MooreB. Moore000000
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.6
+1.7
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+1.3
+1.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
48
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1571
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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