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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The San Antonio Spurs have a 52% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan019180037+2
+1.9
-0.7
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge000132033SAME
+0.4
+0.5
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes141400028+1
+0.3
-1.5
Rudy GayR. Gay000000-26
-0.1
+1.1
Pau GasolP. Gasol000022-17
-0.9
+2.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills21100022+3
+1.5
-1.7
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli000000-20
+0.5
-2.1
Derrick WhiteD. White13500018+3
-0.4
+0.8
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham00119020+4
-1.8
0.0
Davis BertansD. Bertans00911020+9
+1.2
+0.4
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV090009+3
-1.6
-1.9
Jakob PoeltlJ. Poeltl00001616+9
-0.3
+1.6
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter00100010+6
-1.9
0.0
Chimezie MetuC. Metu00001010+8
-2.9
+0.3
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000909+9
-2.0
-0.2
Ben MooreB. Moore000606+6
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
-1.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1478
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan019160035
+1.9
-0.7
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge000151833
+0.4
+0.5
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes19800027
+0.3
-1.5
Rudy GayR. Gay00818026
-0.1
+1.1
Pau GasolP. Gasol00001919
-0.9
+2.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills19000019
+1.5
-1.7
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli010100020
+0.5
-2.1
Derrick WhiteD. White10500015
-0.4
+0.8
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham0068216
-1.8
0.0
Davis BertansD. Bertans0047011
+1.2
+0.4
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV060006
-1.6
-1.9
Jakob PoeltlJ. Poeltl000077
-0.3
+1.6
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter004004
-1.9
0.0
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000022
-2.9
+0.3
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000000
-2.0
-0.2
Ben MooreB. Moore000000
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.2
-0.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1519
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
DeMar DeRozanD. DeRozan025140039+4
+1.9
-0.7
LaMarcus AldridgeL. Aldridge000191635+2
+0.4
+0.5
Bryn ForbesB. Forbes23500028+1
+0.3
-1.5
Rudy GayR. Gay001315028+2
-0.1
+1.1
Pau GasolP. Gasol00002121+2
-0.9
+2.4
Patrick MillsP. Mills24000024+5
+1.5
-1.7
Marco BelinelliM. Belinelli05170022+2
+0.5
-2.1
Derrick WhiteD. White11300014-1
-0.4
+0.8
Dante CunninghamD. Cunningham00261018+2
-1.8
0.0
Davis BertansD. Bertans0028010-1
+1.2
+0.4
Lonnie Walker IVL. Walker IV000000-6
-1.6
-1.9
Jakob PoeltlJ. Poeltl000011-6
-0.3
+1.6
Quincy PondexterQ. Pondexter000000-4
-1.9
0.0
Chimezie MetuC. Metu000000-2
-2.9
+0.3
Drew EubanksD. Eubanks000000SAME
-2.0
-0.2
Ben MooreB. Moore000000SAME
-2.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.0
-0.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
44
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1533
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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