Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Karl-Anthony Towns | K. Towns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | +2 | +3.8 | +1.1 | |||||||
Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 0 | 13 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 39 | +2 | +0.1 | -1.5 | |||||||
Robert Covington | R. Covington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -35 | -0.3 | +3.0 | |||||||
Jeff Teague | J. Teague | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -31 | +0.7 | -1.1 | |||||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -26 | +0.6 | -2.5 | |||||||
Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 27 | +2 | -0.6 | +0.4 | |||||||
Dario Saric | D. Saric | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 28 | +7 | +0.4 | -1.1 | |||||||
Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | +9 | -1.4 | 0.0 | |||||||
Luol Deng | L. Deng | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 19 | +10 | -1.6 | +0.7 | |||||||
Jerryd Bayless | J. Bayless | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | +17 | -1.8 | -2.4 | |||||||
Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | +19 | +0.7 | 0.0 | |||||||
Anthony Tolliver | A. Tolliver | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | +7 | -0.6 | -0.7 | |||||||
Isaiah Canaan | I. Canaan | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | +9 | -1.1 | -1.7 | |||||||
Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.8 | |||||||
C.J. Williams | C. Williams | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | -1.8 | -0.6 | |||||||
Jared Terrell | J. Terrell | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | -2.0 | -1.4 | |||||||
Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -0.5 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.4 | -2.2 | |||||||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 36 | ||||||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1459 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Karl-Anthony Towns | K. Towns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 35 | +3.8 | +1.1 | ||||
Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 0 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 37 | +0.1 | -1.5 | ||||
Robert Covington | R. Covington | 0 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 35 | -0.3 | +3.0 | ||||
Jeff Teague | J. Teague | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | +0.7 | -1.1 | ||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | +0.6 | -2.5 | ||||
Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 25 | -0.6 | +0.4 | ||||
Dario Saric | D. Saric | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 21 | +0.4 | -1.1 | ||||
Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | -1.4 | 0.0 | ||||
Luol Deng | L. Deng | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -1.6 | +0.7 | ||||
Jerryd Bayless | J. Bayless | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1.8 | -2.4 | ||||
Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.7 | 0.0 | ||||
Anthony Tolliver | A. Tolliver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | -0.7 | ||||
Isaiah Canaan | I. Canaan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | -1.7 | ||||
Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | +0.8 | ||||
C.J. Williams | C. Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | -0.6 | ||||
Jared Terrell | J. Terrell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | -1.4 | ||||
Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 | -0.5 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.3 | -0.6 | |||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 45 | ||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1547 |
Comments