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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Portland Trail Blazers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard36000036SAME
+5.9
-1.1
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum000000-34
+2.2
-1.6
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00002828SAME
-0.2
+3.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00224026+2
-0.1
+1.3
Evan TurnerE. Turner39110023+1
-2.5
-0.4
Enes KanterE. Kanter00051722+2
+0.4
-0.7
Rodney HoodR. Hood02400024+4
0.0
-1.4
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00190019+2
-0.6
+1.3
Jake LaymanJ. Layman00160016+2
-1.1
-0.4
Zach CollinsZ. Collins00010111+1
-1.8
+1.0
Seth CurryS. Curry9900018+10
0.0
-1.1
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000527+2
0.0
-0.2
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000404+2
-1.9
+0.1
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons040004+4
-2.3
-1.8
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.020002+2
-2.5
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.8
+0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
47
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1564
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard36000036
+5.9
-1.1
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum43000034
+2.2
-1.6
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00002828
-0.2
+3.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00123024
-0.1
+1.3
Evan TurnerE. Turner40180022
-2.5
-0.4
Enes KanterE. Kanter00031720
+0.4
-0.7
Rodney HoodR. Hood01460020
0.0
-1.4
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00134017
-0.6
+1.3
Jake LaymanJ. Layman00104014
-1.1
-0.4
Zach CollinsZ. Collins00010010
-1.8
+1.0
Seth CurryS. Curry440008
0.0
-1.1
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000235
0.0
-0.2
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000202
-1.9
+0.1
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons000000
-2.3
-1.8
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.000000
-2.5
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.8
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
51
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1599
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard40000040+4
+5.9
-1.1
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum23600038+4
+2.2
-1.6
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00002828SAME
-0.2
+3.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00029029+5
-0.1
+1.3
Evan TurnerE. Turner30220025+3
-2.5
-0.4
Enes KanterE. Kanter00091625+5
+0.4
-0.7
Rodney HoodR. Hood012110023+3
0.0
-1.4
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00142016-1
-0.6
+1.3
Jake LaymanJ. Layman001809-5
-1.1
-0.4
Zach CollinsZ. Collins000044-6
-1.8
+1.0
Seth CurryS. Curry300003-5
0.0
-1.1
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000000-5
0.0
-0.2
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000000-2
-1.9
+0.1
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons000000SAME
-2.3
-1.8
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.000000SAME
-2.5
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.8
-0.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
52
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1616
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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