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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Portland Trail Blazers have a 74% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard19000019-17
+5.4
-1.4
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum62800034SAME
+1.9
-1.8
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00002727SAME
-0.5
+3.5
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00525030+5
-0.4
+1.6
Evan TurnerE. Turner40210025+3
-2.4
-0.3
Zach CollinsZ. Collins00013720SAME
-1.6
+0.8
Jake LaymanJ. Layman00150015SAME
-1.4
0.0
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless000000-18
-1.0
+1.1
Seth CurryS. Curry81100019+4
0.0
-0.9
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas5470016+6
-0.9
-1.9
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard00001313+4
-0.4
+0.4
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan00010111+5
-1.7
-0.2
Wade BaldwinW. Baldwin600006+3
-0.2
-0.8
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons040004+4
-2.1
-1.5
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.010001+1
-2.3
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.4
+0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
40
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1496
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard36000036
+5.4
-1.4
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum52900034
+1.9
-1.8
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00002727
-0.5
+3.5
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00025025
-0.4
+1.6
Evan TurnerE. Turner00220022
-2.4
-0.3
Zach CollinsZ. Collins00091120
-1.6
+0.8
Jake LaymanJ. Layman00132015
-1.4
0.0
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00117018
-1.0
+1.1
Seth CurryS. Curry31200015
0.0
-0.9
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas1720010
-0.9
-1.9
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000099
-0.4
+0.4
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000516
-1.7
-0.2
Wade BaldwinW. Baldwin300003
-0.2
-0.8
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons000000
-2.1
-1.5
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.000000
-2.3
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.8
+0.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
47
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1561
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard40000040+4
+5.4
-1.4
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum13700038+4
+1.9
-1.8
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00002929+2
-0.5
+3.5
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00030030+5
-0.4
+1.6
Evan TurnerE. Turner41200025+3
-2.4
-0.3
Zach CollinsZ. Collins000101222+2
-1.6
+0.8
Jake LaymanJ. Layman00150015SAME
-1.4
0.0
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00128020+2
-1.0
+1.1
Seth CurryS. Curry1900010-5
0.0
-0.9
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas211004-6
-0.9
-1.9
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000066-3
-0.4
+0.4
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000011-5
-1.7
-0.2
Wade BaldwinW. Baldwin000000-3
-0.2
-0.8
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons000000SAME
-2.1
-1.5
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.000000SAME
-2.3
-1.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.5
+0.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
50
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1589
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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