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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Portland Trail Blazers have a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard41000041+1
+5.7
-0.8
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum03700037SAME
+2.1
-1.4
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic000000-30
-0.1
+3.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00030030+1
-0.2
+1.5
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00224026+2
-0.7
+1.7
Enes KanterE. Kanter00002828+2
+0.3
-0.7
Rodney HoodR. Hood03190022SAME
0.0
-1.2
Seth CurryS. Curry6800014SAME
+0.3
-0.8
Evan TurnerE. Turner107008+1
-2.1
-0.3
Zach CollinsZ. Collins00021416+8
-1.7
+1.1
Jake LaymanJ. Layman00011011+8
-1.0
-0.4
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000066+6
+0.3
-0.4
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000101+1
-1.8
+0.1
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons000000SAME
-1.8
-2.1
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.000000SAME
-2.6
-1.5
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.1
-0.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
51
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1606
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Damian LillardD. Lillard40000040
+5.7
-0.8
C.J. McCollumC. McCollum03700037
+2.1
-1.4
Jusuf NurkicJ. Nurkic00003030
-0.1
+3.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00029029
-0.2
+1.5
Maurice HarklessM. Harkless00240024
-0.7
+1.7
Enes KanterE. Kanter000121426
+0.3
-0.7
Rodney HoodR. Hood04180022
0.0
-1.2
Seth CurryS. Curry7700014
+0.3
-0.8
Evan TurnerE. Turner106007
-2.1
-0.3
Zach CollinsZ. Collins000448
-1.7
+1.1
Jake LaymanJ. Layman000303
-1.0
-0.4
Meyers LeonardM. Leonard000000
+0.3
-0.4
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000000
-1.8
+0.1
Anfernee SimonsA. Simons000000
-1.8
-2.1
Gary Trent Jr.G. Trent Jr.000000
-2.6
-1.5
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.4
+1.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1665
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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