shoe gif

UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

shoe gif

The Golden State Warriors have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry34000034SAME
+6.5
-0.4
Kevin DurantK. Durant002015035SAME
+3.9
+0.4
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03400034SAME
+1.6
-1.6
Draymond GreenD. Green00130132+1
-0.2
+3.1
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00002626SAME
+1.5
+2.4
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala04200024SAME
-0.1
+1.7
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00002020SAME
+0.6
+1.9
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston7900016SAME
-2.2
0.0
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko0073111SAME
-0.2
-0.4
Quinn CookQ. Cook700007SAME
-0.5
-2.7
Damian JonesD. Jones000000-1
-1.3
+1.2
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie010001SAME
-1.2
-1.1
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000SAME
-1.7
+1.5
Damion LeeD. Lee000000SAME
-1.5
-1.1
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000SAME
-2.1
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000SAME
-1.9
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+8.6
+3.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
67
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1801
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry34000034
+6.5
-0.4
Kevin DurantK. Durant002015035
+3.9
+0.4
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03400034
+1.6
-1.6
Draymond GreenD. Green00129131
-0.2
+3.1
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00012526
+1.5
+2.4
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala04200024
-0.1
+1.7
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00002020
+0.6
+1.9
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston7900016
-2.2
0.0
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko0073111
-0.2
-0.4
Quinn CookQ. Cook700007
-0.5
-2.7
Damian JonesD. Jones000011
-1.3
+1.2
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie010001
-1.2
-1.1
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000
-1.7
+1.5
Damion LeeD. Lee000000
-1.5
-1.1
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000
-2.1
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000
-1.9
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+8.6
+3.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
67
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1799
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry38000038+4
+6.5
-0.4
Kevin DurantK. Durant001918037+2
+3.9
+0.4
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03800038+4
+1.6
-1.6
Draymond GreenD. Green00227433+2
-0.2
+3.1
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00022628+2
+1.5
+2.4
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala03210024SAME
-0.1
+1.7
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00011819-1
+0.6
+1.9
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston9700016SAME
-2.2
0.0
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko006006-5
-0.2
-0.4
Quinn CookQ. Cook100001-6
-0.5
-2.7
Damian JonesD. Jones000000-1
-1.3
+1.2
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie000000-1
-1.2
-1.1
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000SAME
-1.7
+1.5
Damion LeeD. Lee000000SAME
-1.5
-1.1
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000SAME
-2.1
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000SAME
-1.9
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+9.6
+3.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
69
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1834
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments