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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Golden State Warriors have a 63% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry38000038SAME
+6.5
0.0
Kevin DurantK. Durant000000-38
+4.1
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03270039+2
+1.4
-1.5
Draymond GreenD. Green00036036+2
0.0
+3.6
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins000000-26
+1.3
+2.7
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala00270027+2
+0.2
+1.7
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00002121+4
+0.8
+1.9
Andrew BogutA. Bogut00001414+5
-3.3
+3.1
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston41300017+5
-2.2
-0.1
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie02130015+11
-1.5
-1.2
Quinn CookQ. Cook600006+6
-0.2
-3.0
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko0009312+12
-0.3
-0.3
Damian JonesD. Jones000077+7
-1.3
+1.2
Jordan BellJ. Bell000033+3
-1.8
+1.4
Jacob EvansJ. Evans010001+1
-2.1
-0.7
Damion LeeD. Lee001001+1
-1.3
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000303+3
-1.6
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.0
+3.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
59
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1693
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry38000038
+6.5
0.0
Kevin DurantK. Durant002018038
+4.1
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03700037
+1.4
-1.5
Draymond GreenD. Green00822434
0.0
+3.6
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00042226
+1.3
+2.7
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala05200025
+0.2
+1.7
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00041317
+0.8
+1.9
Andrew BogutA. Bogut000099
-3.3
+3.1
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston10200012
-2.2
-0.1
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie040004
-1.5
-1.2
Quinn CookQ. Cook000000
-0.2
-3.0
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko000000
-0.3
-0.3
Damian JonesD. Jones000000
-1.3
+1.2
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000
-1.8
+1.4
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000
-2.1
-0.7
Damion LeeD. Lee000000
-1.3
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000
-1.6
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+9.3
+5.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
71
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1868
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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