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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Golden State Warriors have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 53% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry34000034SAME
+6.7
-0.4
Kevin DurantK. Durant001225037+2
+3.9
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03600036+2
+1.1
-1.6
Draymond GreenD. Green000151732+1
-0.1
+3.5
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins000000-25
+2.4
+2.2
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala00240024SAME
-0.6
+1.3
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko00431320+1
-0.1
-0.1
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston9700016SAME
-2.1
-0.1
Damian JonesD. Jones000000-10
-1.0
+1.0
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00031417+13
+0.2
+1.5
Quinn CookQ. Cook500005+1
+0.3
-2.5
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie0370010+6
-1.2
-1.1
Jordan BellJ. Bell000246+6
-1.0
+1.7
Damion LeeD. Lee021003+3
-1.2
-0.8
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000SAME
-1.8
-1.1
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000SAME
-2.0
-1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+7.1
+2.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
62
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1731
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry34000034
+6.7
-0.4
Kevin DurantK. Durant001520035
+3.9
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03400034
+1.1
-1.6
Draymond GreenD. Green00320831
-0.1
+3.5
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00012425
+2.4
+2.2
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala04200024
-0.6
+1.3
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko00105419
-0.1
-0.1
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston10600016
-2.1
-0.1
Damian JonesD. Jones00001010
-1.0
+1.0
Kevon LooneyK. Looney000224
+0.2
+1.5
Quinn CookQ. Cook400004
+0.3
-2.5
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie040004
-1.2
-1.1
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000
-1.0
+1.7
Damion LeeD. Lee000000
-1.2
-0.8
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000
-1.8
-1.1
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000
-2.0
-1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+8.2
+3.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
66
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1782
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry38000038+4
+6.7
-0.4
Kevin DurantK. Durant002019039+4
+3.9
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03700037+3
+1.1
-1.6
Draymond GreenD. Green001211133+2
-0.1
+3.5
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00022729+4
+2.4
+2.2
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala05190024SAME
-0.6
+1.3
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko0086519SAME
-0.1
-0.1
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston10600016SAME
-2.1
-0.1
Damian JonesD. Jones000055-5
-1.0
+1.0
Kevon LooneyK. Looney000000-4
+0.2
+1.5
Quinn CookQ. Cook000000-4
+0.3
-2.5
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie000000-4
-1.2
-1.1
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000SAME
-1.0
+1.7
Damion LeeD. Lee000000SAME
-1.2
-0.8
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000SAME
-1.8
-1.1
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000SAME
-2.0
-1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+9.6
+3.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
68
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1821
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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