shoe gif

UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

shoe gif

The Washington Wizards have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall000000-34
+1.4
-0.7
Bradley BealB. Beal73100038SAME
+3.2
-1.4
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza00162018-12
0.0
-0.5
Dwight HowardD. Howard000000-24
-1.8
+1.9
Jeff GreenJ. Green00025025+4
-0.2
-0.9
Bobby PortisB. Portis00081523+3
-0.3
-1.4
Tomas Satoransky*T. Satoransky*30000030+10
+0.5
-0.3
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker00164020+4
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas BryantT. Bryant00001919+5
-0.3
+0.7
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson00130013+4
-2.9
+0.7
Sam DekkerS. Dekker0029011+4
-1.1
-0.3
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi00001414+10
-2.6
+2.2
Troy BrownT. Brown01300013+11
-1.7
-0.8
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae6400010+9
-1.6
-0.7
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson001001+1
-1.0
-0.4
Chasson RandleC. Randle500005+5
-0.7
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.5
-2.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.6
-2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
33
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1427
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall34000034
+1.4
-0.7
Bradley BealB. Beal43400038
+3.2
-1.4
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza02208030
0.0
-0.5
Dwight HowardD. Howard00002424
-1.8
+1.9
Jeff GreenJ. Green00021021
-0.2
-0.9
Bobby PortisB. Portis00014620
-0.3
-1.4
Tomas SatoranskyT. Satoransky91010020
+0.5
-0.3
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker00142016
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas BryantT. Bryant00001414
-0.3
+0.7
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson009009
-2.9
+0.7
Sam DekkerS. Dekker004307
-1.1
-0.3
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi000044
-2.6
+2.2
Troy BrownT. Brown020002
-1.7
-0.8
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae100001
-1.6
-0.7
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson000000
-1.0
-0.4
Chasson RandleC. Randle000000
-0.7
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.3
-2.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1487
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall38000038+4
+1.4
-0.7
Bradley BealB. Beal033100043+5
+3.2
-1.4
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza00288036+6
0.0
-0.5
Dwight HowardD. Howard00002727+3
-1.8
+1.9
Jeff GreenJ. Green00126027+6
-0.2
-0.9
Bobby PortisB. Portis000101525+5
-0.3
-1.4
Tomas SatoranskyT. Satoransky101530028+8
+0.5
-0.3
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker0064010-6
-0.7
-1.0
Thomas BryantT. Bryant000066-8
-0.3
+0.7
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson000000-9
-2.9
+0.7
Sam DekkerS. Dekker000000-7
-1.1
-0.3
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi000000-4
-2.6
+2.2
Troy BrownT. Brown000000-2
-1.7
-0.8
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae000000-1
-1.6
-0.7
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson000000SAME
-1.0
-0.4
Chasson RandleC. Randle000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.8
-2.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1508
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments