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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Washington Wizards have a 52% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall000000-34
+1.7
-0.8
Bradley BealB. Beal102700037SAME
+2.7
-1.2
Otto PorterO. Porter00264030+1
+1.8
+0.9
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza00198027+4
-0.5
-0.1
Markieff MorrisM. Morris000000-22
-1.3
-0.3
Dwight HowardD. Howard000000-21
-1.8
+1.9
Tomas Satoransky*T. Satoransky*27300030+11
+0.1
0.0
Jeff GreenJ. Green00019019+3
-0.4
-0.9
Sam DekkerS. Dekker00017017+3
-0.8
-0.3
Ian Mahinmi*I. Mahinmi*00002525+15
-2.4
+2.2
Troy BrownT. Brown01200012+5
-1.6
-0.9
Thomas BryantT. Bryant00002323+17
-0.3
+1.0
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae4600010+8
-1.8
-1.1
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson003003+3
-1.0
-0.4
Chasson RandleC. Randle700007+7
0.0
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.6
+0.6
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.1
-0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1500
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall34000034
+1.7
-0.8
Bradley BealB. Beal43300037
+2.7
-1.2
Otto PorterO. Porter00254029
+1.8
+0.9
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza00203023
-0.5
-0.1
Markieff MorrisM. Morris000111122
-1.3
-0.3
Dwight HowardD. Howard00002121
-1.8
+1.9
Tomas SatoranskyT. Satoransky81100019
+0.1
0.0
Jeff GreenJ. Green00016016
-0.4
-0.9
Sam DekkerS. Dekker00014014
-0.8
-0.3
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi00001010
-2.4
+2.2
Troy BrownT. Brown043007
-1.6
-0.9
Thomas BryantT. Bryant000066
-0.3
+1.0
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae200002
-1.8
-1.1
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson000000
-1.0
-0.4
Chasson RandleC. Randle000000
0.0
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.6
-0.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
44
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1537
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall38000038+4
+1.7
-0.8
Bradley BealB. Beal03370040+3
+2.7
-1.2
Otto PorterO. Porter001911030+1
+1.8
+0.9
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza002111032+9
-0.5
-0.1
Markieff MorrisM. Morris000131326+4
-1.3
-0.3
Dwight HowardD. Howard00002727+6
-1.8
+1.9
Tomas SatoranskyT. Satoransky101500025+6
+0.1
0.0
Jeff GreenJ. Green00011011-5
-0.4
-0.9
Sam DekkerS. Dekker001203-11
-0.8
-0.3
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi000088-2
-2.4
+2.2
Troy BrownT. Brown000000-7
-1.6
-0.9
Thomas BryantT. Bryant000000-6
-0.3
+1.0
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae000000-2
-1.8
-1.1
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson000000SAME
-1.0
-0.4
Chasson RandleC. Randle000000SAME
0.0
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.2
-0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1557
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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