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UPDATED Jun. 13, 2019, at 11:52 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Washington Wizards have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall000000-38
+1.3
-0.6
Bradley BealB. Beal526110042SAME
+3.2
-1.4
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza000000-35
-0.2
-0.4
Dwight HowardD. Howard000000-27
-1.8
+1.9
Jeff GreenJ. Green00227029+2
-0.3
-1.1
Bobby PortisB. Portis00071825SAME
-0.3
-1.3
Tomas Satoransky*T. Satoransky*27500032+4
+0.5
-0.3
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker001710027+15
-0.5
-0.8
Thomas BryantT. Bryant00002222+16
-0.1
+0.8
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson00130013+13
-2.9
+0.7
Sam DekkerS. Dekker005409+9
-1.3
-0.6
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi000088+8
-2.7
+2.1
Troy BrownT. Brown01400014+14
-1.8
-0.9
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae630009+9
-1.5
-0.7
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson000000SAME
-1.1
0.0
Chasson RandleC. Randle10000010+10
-0.7
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
-3.0
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.1
-3.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
33
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1425
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
John WallJ. Wall38000038
+1.3
-0.6
Bradley BealB. Beal03390042
+3.2
-1.4
Trevor ArizaT. Ariza002411035
-0.2
-0.4
Dwight HowardD. Howard00002727
-1.8
+1.9
Jeff GreenJ. Green00126027
-0.3
-1.1
Bobby PortisB. Portis000101525
-0.3
-1.3
Tomas SatoranskyT. Satoransky101530028
+0.5
-0.3
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker00111012
-0.5
-0.8
Thomas BryantT. Bryant000066
-0.1
+0.8
Wesley JohnsonW. Johnson000000
-2.9
+0.7
Sam DekkerS. Dekker000000
-1.3
-0.6
Ian MahinmiI. Mahinmi000000
-2.7
+2.1
Troy BrownT. Brown000000
-1.8
-0.9
Jordan McRaeJ. McRae000000
-1.5
-0.7
Devin RobinsonD. Robinson000000
-1.1
0.0
Chasson RandleC. Randle000000
-0.7
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.5
-2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1505
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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