UPDATED Sep. 19, 2019, at 11:23 PM

Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm called Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game.

But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic forecast for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

Sign in using Google or Facebook to save your selections, and check back next week to see how well you did against FiveThirtyEight and everybody else playing the game.

Week 3

/ forecasts completed

Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
AtlantaATLAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
IndianapolisINDHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BaltimoreBALAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
Kansas CityKCHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
CincinnatiCINAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BuffaloBUFHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
DenverDENAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
Green BayGBHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
DetroitDETAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
PhiladelphiaPHIHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
MiamiMIAAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
DallasDALHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
N.Y. JetsNYJAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
New EnglandNEHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
OaklandOAKAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
MinnesotaMINHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 4:05 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
CarolinaCARAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
ArizonaARIHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 4:05 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
N.Y. GiantsNYGAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
Tampa BayTBHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
HoustonHOUAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
L.A. ChargersLACHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
New OrleansNOAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
SeattleSEAHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
PittsburghPITAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
San FranciscoSFHome
Sunday, Sept. 22
at 8:20 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 22 at 8:20 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
L.A. RamsLARAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
ClevelandCLEHome
Monday, Sept. 23
at 8:15 p.m.
Monday, Sept. 23 at 8:15 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
ChicagoCHIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
WashingtonWSHHome

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Week 3 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
TEN at JAX
TEN 7,
JAX 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoTennesseeTENat " + game.team1 + "-logoJacksonvilleJAXTEN67%TEN 7, JAX 20
Week 3 pointsWeek 3 pointsWeek 3 points

Week 2 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
CLE at NYJ
CLE 23,
NYJ 3
" + game.team2 + "-logoClevelandCLEat " + game.team1 + "-logoN.Y. JetsNYJCLE50%CLE 23, NYJ 3
PHI at ATL
PHI 20,
ATL 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoPhiladelphiaPHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoAtlantaATLPHI55%PHI 20, ATL 24
CHI at DEN
CHI 16,
DEN 14
" + game.team2 + "-logoChicagoCHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoDenverDENCHI54%CHI 16, DEN 14
NO at LAR
NO 9,
LAR 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoNew OrleansNOat " + game.team1 + "-logoL.A. RamsLARLAR56%NO 9, LAR 27
KC at OAK
KC 28,
OAK 10
" + game.team2 + "-logoKansas CityKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoOaklandOAKKC69%KC 28, OAK 10
ARI at BAL
ARI 17,
BAL 23
" + game.team2 + "-logoArizonaARIat " + game.team1 + "-logoBaltimoreBALBAL81%ARI 17, BAL 23
BUF at NYG
BUF 28,
NYG 14
" + game.team2 + "-logoBuffaloBUFat " + game.team1 + "-logoN.Y. GiantsNYGBUF52%BUF 28, NYG 14
DAL at WSH
DAL 31,
WSH 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoDallasDALat " + game.team1 + "-logoWashingtonWSHDAL62%DAL 31, WSH 21
IND at TEN
IND 19,
TEN 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoIndianapolisINDat " + game.team1 + "-logoTennesseeTENTEN68%IND 19, TEN 17
JAX at HOU
JAX 12,
HOU 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoJacksonvilleJAXat " + game.team1 + "-logoHoustonHOUHOU80%JAX 12, HOU 13
LAC at DET
LAC 10,
DET 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoL.A. ChargersLACat " + game.team1 + "-logoDetroitDETLAC59%LAC 10, DET 13
MIN at GB
MIN 16,
GB 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoMinnesotaMINat " + game.team1 + "-logoGreen BayGBGB56%MIN 16, GB 21
NE at MIA
NE 43,
MIA 0
" + game.team2 + "-logoNew EnglandNEat " + game.team1 + "-logoMiamiMIANE81%NE 43, MIA 0
SEA at PIT
SEA 28,
PIT 26
" + game.team2 + "-logoSeattleSEAat " + game.team1 + "-logoPittsburghPITPIT58%SEA 28, PIT 26
SF at CIN
SF 41,
CIN 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoSan FranciscoSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoCincinnatiCINSF53%SF 41, CIN 17
TB at CAR
TB 20,
CAR 14
" + game.team2 + "-logoTampa BayTBat " + game.team1 + "-logoCarolinaCARCAR70%TB 20, CAR 14
Week 2 pointsWeek 2 pointsWeek 2 points

Week 1 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
DEN at OAK
DEN 16,
OAK 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoDenverDENat " + game.team1 + "-logoOaklandOAKOAK51%DEN 16, OAK 24
HOU at NO
HOU 28,
NO 30
" + game.team2 + "-logoHoustonHOUat " + game.team1 + "-logoNew OrleansNONO68%HOU 28, NO 30
PIT at NE
PIT 3,
NE 33
" + game.team2 + "-logoPittsburghPITat " + game.team1 + "-logoNew EnglandNENE68%PIT 3, NE 33
DET at ARI
DET 27,
ARI 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoDetroitDETat " + game.team1 + "-logoArizonaARIDET51%DET 27, ARI 27
NYG at DAL
NYG 17,
DAL 35
" + game.team2 + "-logoN.Y. GiantsNYGat " + game.team1 + "-logoDallasDALDAL74%NYG 17, DAL 35
SF at TB
SF 31,
TB 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoSan FranciscoSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoTampa BayTBTB55%SF 31, TB 17
CIN at SEA
CIN 20,
SEA 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoCincinnatiCINat " + game.team1 + "-logoSeattleSEASEA75%CIN 20, SEA 21
IND at LAC
IND 24,
LAC 30
" + game.team2 + "-logoIndianapolisINDat " + game.team1 + "-logoL.A. ChargersLACLAC72%IND 24, LAC 30
ATL at MIN
ATL 12,
MIN 28
" + game.team2 + "-logoAtlantaATLat " + game.team1 + "-logoMinnesotaMINMIN59%ATL 12, MIN 28
BAL at MIA
BAL 59,
MIA 10
" + game.team2 + "-logoBaltimoreBALat " + game.team1 + "-logoMiamiMIABAL61%BAL 59, MIA 10
BUF at NYJ
BUF 17,
NYJ 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoBuffaloBUFat " + game.team1 + "-logoN.Y. JetsNYJNYJ55%BUF 17, NYJ 16
KC at JAX
KC 40,
JAX 26
" + game.team2 + "-logoKansas CityKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoJacksonvilleJAXKC58%KC 40, JAX 26
LAR at CAR
LAR 30,
CAR 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoL.A. RamsLARat " + game.team1 + "-logoCarolinaCARLAR52%LAR 30, CAR 27
TEN at CLE
TEN 43,
CLE 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoTennesseeTENat " + game.team1 + "-logoClevelandCLECLE60%TEN 43, CLE 13
WSH at PHI
WSH 27,
PHI 32
" + game.team2 + "-logoWashingtonWSHat " + game.team1 + "-logoPhiladelphiaPHIPHI77%WSH 27, PHI 32
GB at CHI
GB 10,
CHI 3
" + game.team2 + "-logoGreen BayGBat " + game.team1 + "-logoChicagoCHICHI64%GB 10, CHI 3
Week 1 pointsWeek 1 pointsWeek 1 points

Saving …

/forecasts completed

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