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On Wednesday, President Trump refused to say whether he would commit to a peaceful transition of power if he lost the election, telling reporters: “We’re going to have to see what happens.” Earlier this month, we looked at a number of scenarios for what that might look like if this did, in fact, happen. At this point, though, no matter if you look at national or state polls — but you should really look at state polls — Joe Biden has a healthy advantage over Trump, leading him nationally by about 8 percentage points when you look at state polls.
We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.
States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top.
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time.
The chances that these situations will crop up
Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls.