Our 2020 House forecast is final and no longer updating.

Updated 4 years ago

Cox is slightly favored to win California’s 21st District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.

David G. Valadao wins 42 in 100 TJ Cox wins 58 in 100

California general

Biden is very likely to win

CA-25 house

It's a toss-up

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote margin

Which polls are influencing the forecast for California’s 21st District?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

American ViewpointValadao+11
American ViewpointB/C
Valadao +11

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