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The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.
See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.
Pollster | Leader | |
---|---|---|
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | Bush | +1 |
Expedition Strategies | Bush | +2 |
GQR Research | Bush | +1 |
Pollster | Leader | |
DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentB/C | Bush +1 | |
Expedition Strategies | Bush +2 | |
GQR ResearchB | Bush +1 |
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