Our 2020 House forecast is final and no longer updating.

Updated 4 years ago

It's a toss-up in Indiana’s 5th District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.

Victoria Spartz wins 50 in 100 Christina Hale wins 50 in 100

Indiana general

Trump is clearly favored to win

IN-2 house

Walorski is clearly favored to win

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote margin

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Indiana’s 5th District?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

Change ResearchEven+0
Global Strategy GroupHale+7
Tulchin ResearchHale+6
WPA IntelligenceSpartz+7
GBAOHale+6
Change ResearchC-
Even +0
Global Strategy GroupB/C
Hale +7
Tulchin ResearchB/C
Hale +6
WPA IntelligenceB/C
Spartz +7
GBAOB/C
Hale +6

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