Our 2020 House forecast is final and no longer updating.

Updated 4 years ago

Kim is clearly favored to win New Jersey’s 3rd District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.

David Richter wins 7 in 100 Andy Kim wins 93 in 100

New Jersey general

Biden is very likely to win

New Jersey senate

Booker is very likely to win

NJ-2 house

It's a toss-up

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote margin

Which polls are influencing the forecast for New Jersey’s 3rd District?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

Basswood ResearchKim+3
Basswood ResearchB/C
Kim +3

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