Our 2020 House forecast is final and no longer updating.

Updated 4 years ago

Gordon is slightly favored to win New York’s 2nd District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.

Andrew R. Garbarino wins 43 in 100 Jackie Gordon wins 57 in 100

New York general

Biden is very likely to win

NY-11 house

Rose is slightly favored to win

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote margin

Which polls are influencing the forecast for New York’s 2nd District?

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