Our 2020 House forecast is final and no longer updating.
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Updated 4 years ago
Wittman is clearly favored to win Virginia’s 1st District
The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.
Wittman win
Rashid win
* Seat won in a runoff
Virginia general
Biden is very likely to win
Virginia senate
Warner is very likely to win
VA-5 house
It's a toss-up
How the House forecast has changed
See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Chances of winning the seat
Popular vote margin
Which polls are influencing the forecast for Virginia’s 1st District?
Pollster
Rating
Pollster
Leader
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