Our 2020 House forecast is final and no longer updating.

Updated 4 years ago

Wittman is clearly favored to win Virginia’s 1st District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.

Robert J. Wittman wins 93 in 100 Qasim Rashid wins 7 in 100

Virginia general

Biden is very likely to win

Virginia senate

Warner is very likely to win

VA-5 house

It's a toss-up

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote margin

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Virginia’s 1st District?

Comments