2020 Senate Election Forecast

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split.

When both parties hold 50 seats, control of the Senate is decided by which party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.

Want to see other versions of the forecast? Click the magnifying glass in the lower left!

2020 Election Coverage

How To Vote In The 2020 Election

By Nathaniel Rakich, Maya Sweedler and Julia Wolfe

When To Expect The Results In Every State

By Nathaniel Rakich and Elena Mejía

Forecasting each Senate seat

Solid R

≥95% R

Likely R

≥75%

Lean R

≥60%

Toss-up

<60% both

Lean D

≥60%

Likely D

≥75%

Solid D

≥95% D

Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.

In the Louisiana race and Georgia’s special election, multiple candidates from each party are facing off on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff.

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast.

As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.

Who’s ahead in each state

Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.