Our 2020 Senate forecast is final and no longer updating.

Updated 4 years ago

Luján is clearly favored to win New Mexico's Senate election

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios the model thinks is possible.

Mark Ronchetti wins 6 in 100 Ben Ray Luján wins 94 in 100

New Mexico general

Biden is clearly favored to win

NM-2 house

Torres Small is slightly favored to win

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote margin

Which polls are influencing the forecast for New Mexico?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

Research & Polling Inc.Luján+8
GBAOLuján+11
Public Policy PollingLuján+10
Research & Polling Inc.Luján+9
Public Policy PollingLuján+14
Research & Polling Inc.B+
Luján +8
GBAOB/C
Luján +11
Public Policy PollingB
Luján +10
Research & Polling Inc.B+
Luján +9
Public Policy PollingB
Luján +14

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