Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Angels are done for the season.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics36-24
AstrosAstros29-317.0
MarinersMariners27-339.0
AngelsAngels26-3410.0
RangersRangers22-3814.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
149413+0=148135%0
LADLADDodgers
Gonzalez, Victor
Gonzalez
160222+10=159065%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149519+0=147629%6
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1602+19+10=163171%7
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1496+19+1=151633%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1601+27+10=163867%9
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
1493+0+0=149338%5
SDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1532+36+10=157862%2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1492+81=149943%4
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1533+6+9=154857%2
9/21Monday, Sept. 214:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146115+0=144639%5
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1491+21+10=152261%8
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
145915+0=144444%7
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149316+10=148756%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1460+51+0=151149%3
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1492+18+10=152051%4
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Herget, Jimmy
Herget
1461173=144142%2
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14913+10=149858%6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149413+0=148146%3
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1489+7+10=150654%7
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
149212+0=148043%9
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1491+26+10=152757%6
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14917+0=148449%9
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149212+9=148951%8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1491+15+0=150655%5
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
148019+10=147145%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14897+0=148248%5
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1482+4+10=149652%2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1491+43=149247%4
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1480+21+9=151053%8
9/10Thursday, Sept. 104:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1489+22+0=151158%6
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146219+10=145342%2
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14918+0=148354%3
TEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
146015+10=145546%7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149481=148546%1
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1458+45+6=150954%7
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1564163=154558%5
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14917+7=149142%9
9/5Saturday, Sept. 510:50 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Peters, Dillon
Peters
1490293=145834%7
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
15653+7=156966%6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156746+0=152152%9
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1489+5+10=150448%10
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156883=155756%5
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1487+18+10=151544%6
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1523+41+0=156458%0
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1486+13+10=150942%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1520+81=152755%11
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14887+12=149345%4
8/31Monday, Aug. 314:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1446+23+0=146947%2
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14896+10=149353%1
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1445+0+0=144542%2
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1491+4+10=150558%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 299:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1448+12+0=146042%3
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1487+20+10=151758%16
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
1449191=142939%2
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1487+9+12=150861%3
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14835+0=147842%12
HOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156841+10=153758%5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 254:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Suarez, Jose
Suarez
148437+0=144735%3
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156723+10=155465%6
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
148674=147540%4
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156524+7=154860%11
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1487+20+0=150742%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1536+16+10=156258%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1486+5+0=149141%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1537+10+10=155759%3
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1487+101=149644%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15366+10=154056%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:45 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Suarez, Jose
Suarez
148934+0=145549%5
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14543+10=146151%10
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:45 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
149212=148954%2
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1451+5+8=146446%7
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14488+0=144038%8
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1495+21+10=152662%2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1449+32=145042%6
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1494+2+10=150658%7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
15929+0=158362%8
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149610+10=149638%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 159:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1591+22+0=161364%6
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1496+5+10=151136%5
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1590+111=160063%7
LAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
14982+12=150837%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1531+9+0=154054%8
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1499+5+10=151446%4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15344+0=153051%0
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1497+14+10=152149%6
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1535+02=153355%9
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14964+7=149945%10
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:35 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1497+6+0=150346%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1478+42+10=153054%7
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
14998+0=149153%0
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147616+10=147047%2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1500+74=150356%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147518+6=146344%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1498+7+0=150555%6
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1444+16+10=147045%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14992+0=149753%6
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1443+26+10=147947%7
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 410 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1498+71=150456%5
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1444+6+10=146044%3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
156925+0=154456%6
LAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
14995+10=150444%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1570+10+0=158060%4
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1497+6+10=151340%5
7/31Friday, July 319:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156961=156260%9
LAALAAAngels
Andriese, Matt
Andriese
149914+10=149540%6
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1444+27+0=147144%8
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1501+6+10=151756%5
7/29Wednesday, July 2910 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1442+12+0=145441%10
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1503+6+10=151959%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1444+43=144542%2
LAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
15006+8=150258%10
7/27Monday, July 273:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1502+6+0=150846%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1527+0+10=153754%3
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
1503+6+0=150946%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1526+3+10=153954%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1501+0+0=150143%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+11+10=154957%1
7/24Friday, July 2410 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1503+32=150443%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1527+17+10=155457%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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