Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Astros have a 91% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1567, down 3 points from last week.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics10-495%53%
AstrosAstros6-73.591%42%
AngelsAngels5-95.034%3%
RangersRangers4-85.022%2%
MarinersMariners5-105.57%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156738+0=152946%
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1531+18+10=155954%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156718+0=154953%
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153110+10=153147%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+13=145135%
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156717+6=155665%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145433%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157767%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1453+2+0=145531%
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1567+15+10=159269%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
14409+0=143135%
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156738+12=154165%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144027+0=141330%
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156718+10=155970%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14402+0=143833%
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156717+10=156067%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
150223=149739%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
150218+0=148435%
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1567+15+10=159265%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+03=156458%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+7=150942%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156758%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151242%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+03=156457%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151743%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156757%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151743%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156757%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151743%
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+14=149639%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+7=157461%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150039%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150039%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150039%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+12=153043%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157757%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157756%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157756%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+12=157964%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+03=156458%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151042%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156758%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151042%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156758%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151042%
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+02=156553%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154247%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156754%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154246%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156754%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154246%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 103:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156754%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154246%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156745%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160255%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 13HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156745%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160255%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+12=157964%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+03=150139%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150440%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157760%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150440%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157760%
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+04=156365%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145235%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156766%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145234%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156766%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145234%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+04=156361%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+7=148339%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156761%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148639%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156761%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148639%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156761%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148639%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1568+143=157955%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1530+5+10=154545%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156931+0=153851%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1505+19+10=153449%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
157210+0=156258%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15028+10=150442%14
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157023+0=154753%8
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+9+12=152547%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
156925+0=154456%6
LAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
14995+10=150444%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1570+10+0=158060%4
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1497+6+10=151340%5
7/31Friday, July 319:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156961=156260%9
LAALAAAngels
Andriese, Matt
Andriese
149914+10=149540%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158516+0=156953%4
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157033+10=154747%2
7/28Tuesday, July 289:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1584+281=161160%5
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
157241+10=154140%2
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14453+0=144234%5
HOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
157121+10=156066%8
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144314+0=142928%7
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1572+12+10=159472%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1445+14+0=145934%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15717+10=157466%7
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1446+254=146730%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1570+34+10=161470%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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