Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Astros are done for the season.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics36-24
AstrosAstros29-317.0
MarinersMariners27-339.0
AngelsAngels26-3410.0
RangersRangers22-3814.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/17Saturday, Oct. 178:37 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15595+0=155445%2
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1562+17+0=157955%4
10/16Friday, Oct. 166:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15579+0=154846%7
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1565+5+0=157054%4
10/15Thursday, Oct. 155:07 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
156730+0=153750%3
HOUHOUAstros
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
155519+0=153650%4
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 148:40 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1568+4+0=157252%3
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1553+8+0=156148%4
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 138:40 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15665+0=156151%5
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1556+0+0=155649%2
10/12Monday, Oct. 124:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15586+0=155245%2
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1564+14+0=157855%4
10/11Sunday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15599+5=155547%1
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1563+5+2=157053%2
10/8Thursday, Oct. 83:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1530+4+0=153443%6
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1556+12+0=156857%11
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 73:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15274+0=152342%9
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1559+6+0=156558%7
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 64:37 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155612+0=154451%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1530+9+0=153949%2
10/5Monday, Oct. 54:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15532+7=155850%10
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1533+19+7=155950%5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1551+3+0=155450%3
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15481+10=155750%1
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1548+101=155746%4
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1550+17+12=157954%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
155146+0=150559%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
145826+10=144241%8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15545+0=154964%1
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
145517+10=144836%6
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1555+2+0=155764%4
TEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
14534+10=145936%5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
1552134=153553%12
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1456+52+7=151547%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1554+12+0=156668%2
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144923+10=143632%3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155218+0=153462%6
SEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
145112+10=144938%1
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
155554=154658%1
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1448+29+10=148742%6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
149312+0=148138%2
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1554+4+10=156862%3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14943+0=149142%2
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
155412+10=155258%3
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1492+313=152042%6
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1556+13+10=157958%3
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
146227+0=143535%1
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155522+10=154365%2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146021+0=143934%1
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
155610+10=155666%0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
146112+0=144934%1
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
15551+9=156366%4
9/13Sunday, Sept. 138 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1558+21+0=157949%1
LADLADDodgers
Graterol, Brusdar
Graterol
159521+10=158451%8
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155620+0=153642%7
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159612+10=159458%5
9/10Thursday, Sept. 103:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
15583+0=155551%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1537+4+10=155149%3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
155926+0=153349%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15366+10=154051%3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:20 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
1558394=151544%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1537+16+6=155956%4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1536+84=154043%4
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1559+22+6=158757%2
9/7Monday, Sept. 79 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
1562112=154950%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1533+4+10=154750%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1564163=154558%5
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14917+7=149142%9
9/5Saturday, Sept. 510:50 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Peters, Dillon
Peters
1490293=145834%7
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
15653+7=156966%6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156746+0=152152%9
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1489+5+10=150448%10
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156883=155756%5
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1487+18+10=151544%6
9/3Thursday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1465+48+0=151338%4
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1566+19+10=159562%8
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
146613+0=145336%1
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156619+10=155764%2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
146419+0=144534%6
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156720+15=156266%5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1537+13+0=155043%3
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1566+22+10=159857%6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1539+9+3=155147%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156510+17=157253%4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14835+0=147842%12
HOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156841+10=153758%5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 254:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Suarez, Jose
Suarez
148437+0=144735%3
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156723+10=155465%6
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
148674=147540%4
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156524+7=154860%11
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1567+22+0=158961%3
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
151616+10=151039%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
157125+0=154652%2
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1512+6+10=152848%13
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
1572113=155856%3
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15112+10=151944%4
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157122+0=154953%10
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1494+23+10=152747%8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1568323=153355%13
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
14967+7=149645%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149719+0=147834%1
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1568+14+10=159266%2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
149813=149442%1
HOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156729+10=154858%2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1438+6+0=144433%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156611+10=156567%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
143923+0=141632%1
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156627+10=154968%2
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Cortes, Nestor
Cortes
14415+0=143635%1
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156434+12=154265%11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14549+0=144531%1
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1563+15+10=158869%5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1453+5+0=145838%7
HOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156427+10=154762%6
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
1454+03=145136%4
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156316+6=155364%6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156618+0=154852%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153311+10=153248%7
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156738+0=152946%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1531+18+10=155954%3
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1568+143=157955%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1530+5+10=154545%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156931+0=153851%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1505+19+10=153449%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
157210+0=156258%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15028+10=150442%14
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157023+0=154753%8
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+9+12=152547%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
156925+0=154456%6
LAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
14995+10=150444%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1570+10+0=158060%4
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1497+6+10=151340%5
7/31Friday, July 319:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156961=156260%9
LAALAAAngels
Andriese, Matt
Andriese
149914+10=149540%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158516+0=156953%4
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157033+10=154747%2
7/28Tuesday, July 289:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1584+281=161160%5
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
157241+10=154140%2
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14453+0=144234%5
HOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
157121+10=156066%8
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144314+0=142928%7
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1572+12+10=159472%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1445+14+0=145934%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15717+10=157466%7
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1446+254=146730%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1570+34+10=161470%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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