2020 MLB Predictions

The Astros are done for the season.

AL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Athletics Athletics36-24	—	✓	✓
Astros Astros29-31	7.0	✓	—
Mariners Mariners27-33	9.0	—	—
Angels Angels26-34	10.0	—	—
Rangers Rangers22-38	14.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/17Saturday, Oct. 178:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1559	–5	+0	=1554	45%	2
10/17Saturday, Oct. 178:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1562	+17	+0	=1579	55%	4
10/16Friday, Oct. 166:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1557	–9	+0	=1548	46%	7
10/16Friday, Oct. 166:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1565	+5	+0	=1570	54%	4
10/15Thursday, Oct. 155:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1567	–30	+0	=1537	50%	3
10/15Thursday, Oct. 155:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1555	–19	+0	=1536	50%	4
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 148:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1568	+4	+0	=1572	52%	3
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 148:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1553	+8	+0	=1561	48%	4
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 138:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1566	–5	+0	=1561	51%	5
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 138:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1556	+0	+0	=1556	49%	2
10/12Monday, Oct. 124:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1558	–6	+0	=1552	45%	2
10/12Monday, Oct. 124:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1564	+14	+0	=1578	55%	4
10/11Sunday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1559	–9	+5	=1555	47%	1
10/11Sunday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1563	+5	+2	=1570	53%	2
10/8Thursday, Oct. 83:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1530	+4	+0	=1534	43%	6
10/8Thursday, Oct. 83:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1556	+12	+0	=1568	57%	11
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 73:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1527	–4	+0	=1523	42%	9
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 73:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1559	+6	+0	=1565	58%	7
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 64:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1556	–12	+0	=1544	51%	5
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 64:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1530	+9	+0	=1539	49%	2
10/5Monday, Oct. 54:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1553	–2	+7	=1558	50%	10
10/5Monday, Oct. 54:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1533	+19	+7	=1559	50%	5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1551	+3	+0	=1554	50%	3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1548	–1	+10	=1557	50%	1
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1548	+10	–1	=1557	46%	4
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1550	+17	+12	=1579	54%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	De Jong	1551	–46	+0	=1505	59%	4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1458	–26	+10	=1442	41%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1554	–5	+0	=1549	64%	1
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1455	–17	+10	=1448	36%	6
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1555	+2	+0	=1557	64%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Cody	1453	–4	+10	=1459	36%	5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1552	–13	–4	=1535	53%	12
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lynn	1456	+52	+7	=1515	47%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1554	+12	+0	=1566	68%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1449	–23	+10	=1436	32%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1552	–18	+0	=1534	62%	6
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1451	–12	+10	=1449	38%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1555	–5	–4	=1546	58%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1448	+29	+10	=1487	42%	6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1493	–12	+0	=1481	38%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1554	+4	+10	=1568	62%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1494	–3	+0	=1491	42%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1554	–12	+10	=1552	58%	3
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1492	+31	–3	=1520	42%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1556	+13	+10	=1579	58%	3
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1462	–27	+0	=1435	35%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1555	–22	+10	=1543	65%	2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1460	–21	+0	=1439	34%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1556	–10	+10	=1556	66%	0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Cody	1461	–12	+0	=1449	34%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1555	–1	+9	=1563	66%	4
9/13Sunday, Sept. 138 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1558	+21	+0	=1579	49%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 138 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Graterol	1595	–21	+10	=1584	51%	8
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1556	–20	+0	=1536	42%	7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1596	–12	+10	=1594	58%	5
9/10Thursday, Sept. 103:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1558	–3	+0	=1555	51%	1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 103:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1537	+4	+10	=1551	49%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1559	–26	+0	=1533	49%	2
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1536	–6	+10	=1540	51%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:20 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	De Jong	1558	–39	–4	=1515	44%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:20 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Minor	1537	+16	+6	=1559	56%	4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1536	+8	–4	=1540	43%	4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1559	+22	+6	=1587	57%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 79 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1562	–11	–2	=1549	50%	0
9/7Monday, Sept. 79 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1533	+4	+10	=1547	50%	6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1564	–16	–3	=1545	58%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Barria	1491	–7	+7	=1491	42%	9
9/5Saturday, Sept. 510:50 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Peters	1490	–29	–3	=1458	34%	7
9/5Saturday, Sept. 510:50 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1565	–3	+7	=1569	66%	6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1567	–46	+0	=1521	52%	9
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1489	+5	+10	=1504	48%	10
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1568	–8	–3	=1557	56%	5
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Bundy	1487	+18	+10	=1515	44%	6
9/3Thursday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lynn	1465	+48	+0	=1513	38%	4
9/3Thursday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1566	+19	+10	=1595	62%	8
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1466	–13	+0	=1453	36%	1
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1566	–19	+10	=1557	64%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Garcia	1464	–19	+0	=1445	34%	6
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1567	–20	+15	=1562	66%	5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1537	+13	+0	=1550	43%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1566	+22	+10	=1598	57%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1539	+9	+3	=1551	47%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1565	–10	+17	=1572	53%	4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Teheran	1483	–5	+0	=1478	42%	12
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1568	–41	+10	=1537	58%	5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 254:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1484	–37	+0	=1447	35%	3
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 254:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1567	–23	+10	=1554	65%	6
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1486	–7	–4	=1475	40%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1565	–24	+7	=1548	60%	11
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1567	+22	+0	=1589	61%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1516	–16	+10	=1510	39%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1571	–25	+0	=1546	52%	2
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1512	+6	+10	=1528	48%	13
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1572	–11	–3	=1558	56%	3
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1511	–2	+10	=1519	44%	4
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1571	–22	+0	=1549	53%	10
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1494	+23	+10	=1527	47%	8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1568	–32	–3	=1533	55%	13
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1496	–7	+7	=1496	45%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1497	–19	+0	=1478	34%	1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1568	+14	+10	=1592	66%	2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1498	–1	–3	=1494	42%	1
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1567	–29	+10	=1548	58%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1438	+6	+0	=1444	33%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1566	–11	+10	=1565	67%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1439	–23	+0	=1416	32%	1
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1566	–27	+10	=1549	68%	2
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Cortes	1441	–5	+0	=1436	35%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1564	–34	+12	=1542	65%	11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1454	–9	+0	=1445	31%	1
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1563	+15	+10	=1588	69%	5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1453	+5	+0	=1458	38%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1564	–27	+10	=1547	62%	6
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1454	+0	–3	=1451	36%	4
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1563	–16	+6	=1553	64%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1566	–18	+0	=1548	52%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1533	–11	+10	=1532	48%	7
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1567	–38	+0	=1529	46%	1
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1531	+18	+10	=1559	54%	3
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1568	+14	–3	=1579	55%	2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1530	+5	+10	=1545	45%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1569	–31	+0	=1538	51%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1505	+19	+10	=1534	49%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1572	–10	+0	=1562	58%	7
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Ray	1502	–8	+10	=1504	42%	14
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1570	–23	+0	=1547	53%	8
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1504	+9	+12	=1525	47%	2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	James	1569	–25	+0	=1544	56%	6
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1499	–5	+10	=1504	44%	5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1570	+10	+0	=1580	60%	4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1497	+6	+10	=1513	40%	5
7/31Friday, July 319:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1569	–6	–1	=1562	60%	9
7/31Friday, July 319:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Andriese	1499	–14	+10	=1495	40%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 297 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1585	–16	+0	=1569	53%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 297 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1570	–33	+10	=1547	47%	2
7/28Tuesday, July 289:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1584	+28	–1	=1611	60%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 289:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1572	–41	+10	=1541	40%	2
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Graveman	1445	–3	+0	=1442	34%	5
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	James	1571	–21	+10	=1560	66%	8
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1443	–14	+0	=1429	28%	7
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1572	+12	+10	=1594	72%	6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Walker	1445	+14	+0	=1459	34%	2
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1571	–7	+10	=1574	66%	7
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1446	+25	–4	=1467	30%	2
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1570	+34	+10	=1614	70%	8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments