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The Blue Jays are done for the season.
Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | RaysRays40-20 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
![]() | YankeesYankees33-27 | 7.0 | ✓ | — | ||
![]() | Blue JaysBlue Jays32-28 | 8.0 | ✓ | — | ||
![]() | OriolesOrioles25-35 | 15.0 | — | — | ||
![]() | Red SoxRed Sox24-36 | 16.0 | — | — |
Date | Team | Starting pitcher | Team rating | Starting pitcher adj. | Travel, rest & home field adj. | Pregame team rating | Win prob.Chance of winning | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1490 | +33 | +0 | =1523 | 41% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1559 | +4 | +10 | =1573 | 59% | 8 | |
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1491 | +11 | –1 | =1501 | 36% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1558 | +5 | +12 | =1575 | 64% | 3 | |
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1434 | +9 | +0 | =1443 | 45% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1492 | –23 | +10 | =1479 | 55% | 5 | |
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1436 | +21 | +0 | =1457 | 45% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1491 | –11 | +10 | =1490 | 55% | 5 | |
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –17 | –2 | =1418 | 38% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1490 | +4 | +10 | =1504 | 62% | 10 | |
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1561 | –14 | +0 | =1547 | 53% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1488 | +32 | +10 | =1530 | 47% | 4 | |
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1566 | –3 | +0 | =1563 | 62% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1483 | –12 | +10 | =1481 | 38% | 14 | |
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1565 | +42 | +0 | =1607 | 68% | 12 |
![]() | ![]() | 1484 | –21 | +10 | =1473 | 32% | 1 | |
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1567 | –40 | –2 | =1525 | 53% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1482 | +13 | +8 | =1503 | 47% | 11 | |
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1480 | +1 | +0 | =1481 | 48% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1506 | –19 | +10 | =1497 | 52% | 3 | |
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1482 | +31 | +0 | =1513 | 53% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1504 | –21 | +10 | =1493 | 47% | 3 | |
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1483 | –13 | –2 | =1468 | 47% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1503 | –19 | +8 | =1492 | 53% | 8 | |
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1500 | –16 | –2 | =1482 | 50% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1485 | –9 | +8 | =1484 | 50% | 0 | |
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1486 | –6 | +0 | =1480 | 37% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1566 | –4 | +10 | =1572 | 63% | 10 | |
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1488 | –16 | +0 | =1472 | 31% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1564 | +39 | +10 | =1613 | 69% | 13 | |
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1492 | +5 | +0 | =1497 | 43% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1561 | –25 | +12 | =1548 | 57% | 20 | |
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1522 | –19 | +0 | =1503 | 47% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1490 | +26 | +10 | =1526 | 53% | 7 | |
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1524 | –8 | +0 | =1516 | 55% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1489 | –15 | +10 | =1484 | 45% | 3 | |
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1520 | +61 | +0 | =1581 | 61% | 18 |
![]() | ![]() | 1492 | –2 | +12 | =1502 | 39% | 1 | |
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1555 | –28 | +0 | =1527 | 56% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1494 | –17 | +10 | =1487 | 44% | 2 | |
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1556 | –19 | +0 | =1537 | 54% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1493 | +4 | +10 | =1507 | 46% | 2 | |
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1558 | –14 | –2 | =1542 | 52% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1490 | +31 | +8 | =1529 | 48% | 12 | |
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1489 | –14 | +0 | =1475 | 47% | 10 |
![]() | ![]() | 1487 | +2 | +10 | =1499 | 53% | 8 | |
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1490 | +2 | –2 | =1490 | 53% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1486 | –25 | +8 | =1469 | 47% | 9 | |
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1485 | –6 | –2 | =1477 | 50% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1491 | –19 | +8 | =1480 | 50% | 2 | |
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1490 | –19 | +0 | =1471 | 49% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1486 | –19 | +10 | =1477 | 51% | 7 | |
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1488 | +0 | –3 | =1485 | 49% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1488 | –3 | +10 | =1495 | 51% | 2 | |
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1487 | +28 | +0 | =1515 | 56% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1464 | +3 | +10 | =1477 | 44% | 1 | |
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1488 | –12 | –3 | =1473 | 50% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1463 | +4 | +7 | =1474 | 50% | 3 | |
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1423 | –1 | +0 | =1422 | 39% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1490 | –1 | +10 | =1499 | 61% | 3 | |
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1424 | –20 | +0 | =1404 | 39% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1489 | –15 | +10 | =1484 | 61% | 6 | |
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1425 | +4 | +0 | =1429 | 41% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1487 | –2 | +10 | =1495 | 59% | 5 | |
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1426 | +17 | –1 | =1442 | 38% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1487 | +29 | +12 | =1528 | 62% | 5 | |
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1494 | +2 | +0 | =1496 | 53% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1483 | –15 | +10 | =1478 | 47% | 9 | |
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1493 | –12 | +0 | =1481 | 48% | 9 |
![]() | ![]() | 1485 | +0 | +7 | =1492 | 52% | 7 | |
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1483 | –12 | +0 | =1471 | 36% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1550 | +9 | +10 | =1569 | 64% | 4 | |
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1484 | –17 | +0 | =1467 | 41% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –29 | +10 | =1530 | 59% | 5 | |
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1485 | +27 | +0 | =1512 | 49% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –36 | +10 | =1522 | 51% | 2 | |
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1483 | +11 | –3 | =1491 | 42% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –6 | +7 | =1550 | 58% | 5 | |
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1500 | –19 | +0 | =1481 | 50% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1482 | –12 | +10 | =1480 | 50% | 9 | |
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1501 | –29 | –2 | =1470 | 47% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1481 | +0 | +8 | =1489 | 53% | 3 | |
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1480 | –13 | +0 | =1467 | 55% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1430 | –8 | +10 | =1432 | 45% | 2 | |
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1479 | –23 | +0 | =1456 | 54% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1431 | –14 | +10 | =1427 | 46% | 7 | |
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1477 | +22 | –2 | =1497 | 57% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1433 | +3 | +10 | =1446 | 43% | 2 | |
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1542 | –4 | +0 | =1538 | 56% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1479 | +9 | +10 | =1498 | 44% | 5 | |
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1541 | –7 | +0 | =1534 | 56% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1479 | +0 | +10 | =1489 | 44% | 2 | |
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1544 | –25 | –2 | =1517 | 56% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1476 | –12 | +12 | =1476 | 44% | 12 | |
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1463 | +1 | +0 | =1464 | 48% | 14 |
![]() | ![]() | 1478 | –10 | +10 | =1478 | 52% | 11 | |
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1464 | +2 | +0 | =1466 | 44% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1477 | +19 | +10 | =1506 | 56% | 5 | |
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1478 | +6 | +0 | =1484 | 45% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1505 | +6 | +10 | =1521 | 55% | 5 | |
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1477 | –2 | +0 | =1475 | 47% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1506 | –18 | +10 | =1498 | 53% | 1 | |
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1478 | –9 | –3 | =1466 | 48% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1505 | –33 | +9 | =1481 | 52% | 5 | |
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1479 | –11 | +0 | =1468 | 41% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1535 | –10 | +10 | =1535 | 59% | 4 | |
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1478 | +16 | +0 | =1494 | 45% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1536 | –17 | +10 | =1529 | 55% | 1 | |
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1480 | +12 | +4 | =1496 | 42% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1534 | +7 | +10 | =1551 | 58% | 10 | |
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1546 | –55 | +0 | =1491 | 50% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1482 | +18 | –10 | =1490 | 50% | 4 | |
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1544 | +18 | –2 | =1560 | 65% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1483 | –20 | –12 | =1451 | 35% | 0 | |
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1480 | –13 | +0 | =1467 | 41% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1547 | –26 | +10 | =1531 | 59% | 1 | |
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1478 | –13 | –3 | =1462 | 39% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –16 | +10 | =1543 | 61% | 1 | |
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1479 | –19 | +0 | =1460 | 37% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1539 | +6 | +10 | =1555 | 63% | 6 | |
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1480 | +11 | +0 | =1491 | 43% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1538 | –7 | +10 | =1541 | 57% | 4 | |
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1479 | +23 | –3 | =1499 | 40% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1539 | +21 | +10 | =1570 | 60% | 4 |
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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