2020 MLB Predictions

The Blue Jays are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays40-20	—	✓	✓
Yankees Yankees33-27	7.0	✓	—
Blue Jays Blue Jays32-28	8.0	✓	—
Orioles Orioles25-35	15.0	—	—
Red Sox Red Sox24-36	16.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1490	+33	+0	=1523	41%	2
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1559	+4	+10	=1573	59%	8
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1491	+11	–1	=1501	36%	1
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1558	+5	+12	=1575	64%	3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1434	+9	+0	=1443	45%	7
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1492	–23	+10	=1479	55%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1436	+21	+0	=1457	45%	2
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1491	–11	+10	=1490	55%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1437	–17	–2	=1418	38%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1490	+4	+10	=1504	62%	10
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1561	–14	+0	=1547	53%	1
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1488	+32	+10	=1530	47%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1566	–3	+0	=1563	62%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1483	–12	+10	=1481	38%	14
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1565	+42	+0	=1607	68%	12
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1484	–21	+10	=1473	32%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1567	–40	–2	=1525	53%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1482	+13	+8	=1503	47%	11
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1480	+1	+0	=1481	48%	6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Medina	1506	–19	+10	=1497	52%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1482	+31	+0	=1513	53%	1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1504	–21	+10	=1493	47%	3
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1483	–13	–2	=1468	47%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Hale	1503	–19	+8	=1492	53%	8
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–16	–2	=1482	50%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1485	–9	+8	=1484	50%	0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1486	–6	+0	=1480	37%	7
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1566	–4	+10	=1572	63%	10
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1488	–16	+0	=1472	31%	2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1564	+39	+10	=1613	69%	13
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1492	+5	+0	=1497	43%	6
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1561	–25	+12	=1548	57%	20
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1522	–19	+0	=1503	47%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1490	+26	+10	=1526	53%	7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1524	–8	+0	=1516	55%	2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1489	–15	+10	=1484	45%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1520	+61	+0	=1581	61%	18
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1492	–2	+12	=1502	39%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1555	–28	+0	=1527	56%	7
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1494	–17	+10	=1487	44%	2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1556	–19	+0	=1537	54%	1
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1493	+4	+10	=1507	46%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1558	–14	–2	=1542	52%	7
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1490	+31	+8	=1529	48%	12
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1489	–14	+0	=1475	47%	10
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Triggs	1487	+2	+10	=1499	53%	8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1490	+2	–2	=1490	53%	8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1486	–25	+8	=1469	47%	9
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1485	–6	–2	=1477	50%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1491	–19	+8	=1480	50%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1490	–19	+0	=1471	49%	8
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1486	–19	+10	=1477	51%	7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1488	+0	–3	=1485	49%	6
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1488	–3	+10	=1495	51%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1487	+28	+0	=1515	56%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1464	+3	+10	=1477	44%	1
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1488	–12	–3	=1473	50%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1463	+4	+7	=1474	50%	3
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1423	–1	+0	=1422	39%	4
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1490	–1	+10	=1499	61%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1424	–20	+0	=1404	39%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1489	–15	+10	=1484	61%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1425	+4	+0	=1429	41%	0
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1487	–2	+10	=1495	59%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1426	+17	–1	=1442	38%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1487	+29	+12	=1528	62%	5
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1494	+2	+0	=1496	53%	1
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1483	–15	+10	=1478	47%	9
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hart	1493	–12	+0	=1481	48%	9
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1485	+0	+7	=1492	52%	7
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1483	–12	+0	=1471	36%	6
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1550	+9	+10	=1569	64%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1484	–17	+0	=1467	41%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1549	–29	+10	=1530	59%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1485	+27	+0	=1512	49%	1
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Slegers	1548	–36	+10	=1522	51%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1483	+11	–3	=1491	42%	6
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1549	–6	+7	=1550	58%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1500	–19	+0	=1481	50%	8
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1482	–12	+10	=1480	50%	9
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1501	–29	–2	=1470	47%	2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1481	+0	+8	=1489	53%	3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1480	–13	+0	=1467	55%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1430	–8	+10	=1432	45%	2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1479	–23	+0	=1456	54%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1431	–14	+10	=1427	46%	7
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1477	+22	–2	=1497	57%	7
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1433	+3	+10	=1446	43%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1542	–4	+0	=1538	56%	7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1479	+9	+10	=1498	44%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1541	–7	+0	=1534	56%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1479	+0	+10	=1489	44%	2
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1544	–25	–2	=1517	56%	4
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1476	–12	+12	=1476	44%	12
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1463	+1	+0	=1464	48%	14
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1478	–10	+10	=1478	52%	11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1464	+2	+0	=1466	44%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1477	+19	+10	=1506	56%	5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1478	+6	+0	=1484	45%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1505	+6	+10	=1521	55%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1477	–2	+0	=1475	47%	2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1506	–18	+10	=1498	53%	1
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1478	–9	–3	=1466	48%	3
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1505	–33	+9	=1481	52%	5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1479	–11	+0	=1468	41%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1535	–10	+10	=1535	59%	4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1478	+16	+0	=1494	45%	2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1536	–17	+10	=1529	55%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1480	+12	+4	=1496	42%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1534	+7	+10	=1551	58%	10
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1546	–55	+0	=1491	50%	6
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1482	+18	–10	=1490	50%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1544	+18	–2	=1560	65%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1483	–20	–12	=1451	35%	0
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1480	–13	+0	=1467	41%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1547	–26	+10	=1531	59%	1
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1478	–13	–3	=1462	39%	4
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1549	–16	+10	=1543	61%	1
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Hatch	1479	–19	+0	=1460	37%	5
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1539	+6	+10	=1555	63%	6
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1480	+11	+0	=1491	43%	1
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1538	–7	+10	=1541	57%	4
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1479	+23	–3	=1499	40%	6
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1539	+21	+10	=1570	60%	4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments