Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Blue Jays have a 31% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1477, down 3 points from last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees9-499%80%
RaysRays6-73.078%14%
Red SoxRed Sox5-84.044%4%
Blue JaysBlue Jays4-74.031%2%
OriolesOrioles6-73.07%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14772+0=147547%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+10=149853%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1477+6+0=148344%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1506+6+10=152256%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+1+0=146744%
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+19+10=150656%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1466+1+0=146748%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14779+10=147852%
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+02=153358%
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147713+12=147642%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+15+0=155059%
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14772+10=148541%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:07 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15357+0=152855%
TORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1477+6+10=149345%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+192=149459%
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14213+10=142841%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14779+0=146857%
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142114+10=141743%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147757%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143043%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+02=149952%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+8=148548%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150152%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148748%
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+03=147440%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+7=154260%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147740%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154560%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147740%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154560%
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147740%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154560%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150553%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+7=148447%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150553%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148747%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150553%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148747%
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142113=141740%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148760%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+03=147449%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+12=147851%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147750%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147650%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+03=147444%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151556%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151555%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151555%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151555%
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+02=157162%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+8=148538%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152155%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+12=148945%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152155%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148745%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152155%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148745%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147735%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+12=158565%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147735%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158365%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147735%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158365%
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+02=149952%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+8=148548%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+02=147545%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+8=150955%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151155%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 20TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151155%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+02=157162%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142112=141840%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148760%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147893=146648%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150533+9=148152%5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147911+0=146841%3
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153510+10=153559%4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1478+16+0=149445%2
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153617+10=152955%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+12+4=149642%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1534+7+10=155158%10
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154655+0=149150%6
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1482+1810=149050%4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1544+182=156065%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14832012=145135%0
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148013+0=146741%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154726+10=153159%1
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
1478133=146239%4
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154916+10=154361%1
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Hatch, Thomas
Hatch
147919+0=146037%5
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1539+6+10=155563%6
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+11+0=149143%1
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15387+10=154157%4
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1479+233=149940%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1539+21+10=157060%4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments