Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Blue Jays are done for the season.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
RaysRays40-20
YankeesYankees33-277.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays32-288.0
OriolesOrioles25-3515.0
Red SoxRed Sox24-3616.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1490+33+0=152341%2
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1559+4+10=157359%8
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1491+111=150136%1
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1558+5+12=157564%3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1434+9+0=144345%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149223+10=147955%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1436+21+0=145745%2
TORTORBlue Jays
Zeuch, T.J.
Zeuch
149111+10=149055%5
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
1437172=141838%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1490+4+10=150462%10
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
156114+0=154753%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1488+32+10=153047%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15663+0=156362%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
148312+10=148138%14
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1565+42+0=160768%12
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148421+10=147332%1
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
1567402=152553%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1482+13+8=150347%11
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1480+1+0=148148%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Medina, Adonis
Medina
150619+10=149752%3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1482+31+0=151353%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150421+10=149347%3
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
1483132=146847%7
PHIPHIPhillies
Hale, David
Hale
150319+8=149253%8
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
1500162=148250%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
14859+8=148450%0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Merryweather, Julian
Merryweather
14866+0=148037%7
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15664+10=157263%10
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148816+0=147231%2
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1564+39+10=161369%13
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1492+5+0=149743%6
NYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
156125+12=154857%20
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152219+0=150347%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1490+26+10=152653%7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
15248+0=151655%2
TORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
148915+10=148445%3
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1520+61+0=158161%18
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14922+12=150239%1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
155528+0=152756%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149417+10=148744%2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
155619+0=153754%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1493+4+10=150746%2
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
1558142=154252%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1490+31+8=152948%12
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
148914+0=147547%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Triggs, Andrew
Triggs
1487+2+10=149953%8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1490+22=149053%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
148625+8=146947%9
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
148562=147750%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
149119+8=148050%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149019+0=147149%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
148619+10=147751%7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1488+03=148549%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14883+10=149551%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1487+28+0=151556%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1464+3+10=147744%1
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Merryweather, Julian
Merryweather
1488123=147350%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1463+4+7=147450%3
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
14231+0=142239%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14901+10=149961%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
142420+0=140439%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148915+10=148461%6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1425+4+0=142941%0
TORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
14872+10=149559%5
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1426+171=144238%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1487+29+12=152862%5
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
1494+2+0=149653%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Merryweather, Julian
Merryweather
148315+10=147847%9
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Hart, Kyle
Hart
149312+0=148148%9
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1485+0+7=149252%7
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148312+0=147136%6
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1550+9+10=156964%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
148417+0=146741%4
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
154929+10=153059%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1485+27+0=151249%1
TBTBRays
Slegers, Aaron
Slegers
154836+10=152251%2
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1483+113=149142%6
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15496+7=155058%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150019+0=148150%8
TORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
148212+10=148050%9
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
1501292=147047%2
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1481+0+8=148953%3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148013+0=146755%5
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
14308+10=143245%2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147923+0=145654%8
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
143114+10=142746%7
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+222=149757%7
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1433+3+10=144643%2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15424+0=153856%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1479+9+10=149844%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15417+0=153456%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1479+0+10=148944%2
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
1544252=151756%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147612+12=147644%12
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1463+1+0=146448%14
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147810+10=147852%11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1464+2+0=146644%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+19+10=150656%5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1478+6+0=148445%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1505+6+10=152155%5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14772+0=147547%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+10=149853%1
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147893=146648%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150533+9=148152%5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147911+0=146841%3
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153510+10=153559%4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1478+16+0=149445%2
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153617+10=152955%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+12+4=149642%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1534+7+10=155158%10
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154655+0=149150%6
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1482+1810=149050%4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1544+182=156065%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14832012=145135%0
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148013+0=146741%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154726+10=153159%1
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
1478133=146239%4
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154916+10=154361%1
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Hatch, Thomas
Hatch
147919+0=146037%5
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1539+6+10=155563%6
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+11+0=149143%1
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15387+10=154157%4
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1479+233=149940%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1539+21+10=157060%4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments