2020 MLB Predictions

The Braves are done for the season.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-25	—	✓	✓
Marlins Marlins31-29	4.0	✓	—
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.0	—	—
Nationals Nationals26-34	9.0	—	—
Mets Mets26-34	9.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/18Sunday, Oct. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1552	+28	+0	=1580	47%	3
10/18Sunday, Oct. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1608	–12	+0	=1596	53%	4
10/17Saturday, Oct. 174:38 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1554	+19	+0	=1573	41%	1
10/17Saturday, Oct. 174:38 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1606	+16	+0	=1622	59%	3
10/16Friday, Oct. 169:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1604	–10	+0	=1594	59%	7
10/16Friday, Oct. 169:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Minter	1556	–11	+0	=1545	41%	3
10/15Thursday, Oct. 158:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1610	+25	+0	=1635	68%	2
10/15Thursday, Oct. 158:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1550	–10	+0	=1540	32%	10
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 146:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1606	–7	+0	=1599	60%	15
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 146:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1554	–10	+0	=1544	40%	3
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 136:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1552	+27	+0	=1579	41%	8
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 136:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1608	+17	+0	=1625	59%	7
10/12Monday, Oct. 128:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1548	+18	+7	=1573	38%	5
10/12Monday, Oct. 128:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1612	+16	+7	=1635	62%	1
10/8Thursday, Oct. 82:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1545	–17	+0	=1528	59%	7
10/8Thursday, Oct. 82:08 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1472	+9	+0	=1481	41%	0
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 72:08 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1473	+10	+0	=1483	35%	0
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 72:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1543	+23	+0	=1566	65%	2
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 62:08 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1475	+18	+7	=1500	37%	5
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 62:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1541	+23	+7	=1571	63%	9
10/1Thursday, Oct. 112 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1518	+9	+0	=1527	43%	0
10/1Thursday, Oct. 112 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1539	+16	+10	=1565	57%	5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3012 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1519	+21	+2	=1542	44%	0
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3012 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1537	+21	+15	=1573	56%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1488	+0	+0	=1488	42%	9
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1541	–7	+10	=1544	58%	1
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1486	+12	+0	=1498	43%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1544	–8	+10	=1546	57%	2
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1486	–4	–3	=1479	43%	7
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1543	–22	+10	=1531	57%	8
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+10	+0	=1474	37%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1545	+16	+10	=1571	63%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1465	+14	+0	=1479	36%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1543	+26	+10	=1579	64%	9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1468	–3	+0	=1465	40%	1
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1541	–16	+10	=1535	60%	11
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1469	–11	–3	=1455	39%	4
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1540	–11	+7	=1536	61%	5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1537	–35	+0	=1502	47%	7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–9	+10	=1522	53%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1540	+17	+0	=1557	56%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1519	–13	+10	=1516	44%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1536	+27	+0	=1563	58%	15
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1522	–20	+9	=1511	42%	2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Hamels	1539	+11	+0	=1550	64%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1436	+2	+10	=1448	36%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1538	–17	+0	=1521	63%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1437	–20	+10	=1427	37%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1544	–8	–1	=1535	66%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1432	–19	+8	=1421	34%	14
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1541	–36	+0	=1505	41%	8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1525	+33	+10	=1568	59%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1540	+5	+0	=1545	51%	2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1526	+5	+10	=1541	49%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1541	–14	+0	=1527	55%	7
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1525	–43	+10	=1492	45%	8
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1540	–16	–3	=1521	53%	7
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1526	–35	+12	=1503	47%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1469	+7	+0	=1476	43%	9
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Milone	1536	–18	+10	=1528	57%	29
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1466	+6	+0	=1472	43%	8
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1539	–31	+10	=1518	57%	0
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1464	–1	–2	=1461	37%	5
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1541	+3	+10	=1554	63%	4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1525	+10	+0	=1535	51%	3
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1538	–23	+10	=1525	49%	10
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1521	–39	+0	=1482	37%	10
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1541	+24	+10	=1575	63%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Crowe	1520	–33	+0	=1487	43%	10
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1542	–17	+10	=1535	57%	9
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1522	–34	–3	=1485	44%	1
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Milone	1540	–22	+9	=1527	56%	7
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1539	–18	+0	=1521	53%	7
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Leyer	1489	+2	+10	=1501	47%	5
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1537	–3	+0	=1534	59%	10
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1491	–27	+10	=1474	41%	3
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1536	+23	–2	=1557	58%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1492	–2	+10	=1500	42%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Milone	1535	–16	+0	=1519	53%	12
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1503	–14	+10	=1499	47%	10
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1536	–24	+0	=1512	52%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1501	–16	+10	=1495	48%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1538	–17	–1	=1520	49%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1500	+20	+10	=1530	51%	7
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1571	–8	+0	=1563	50%	1
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1537	+18	+10	=1565	50%	2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1573	+50	+4	=1627	63%	1
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1534	–11	+15	=1538	37%	5
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1495	–15	+0	=1480	44%	5
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1536	–20	+10	=1526	56%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1496	+19	+0	=1515	48%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1535	–17	+10	=1528	52%	6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1499	+38	–3	=1534	46%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1532	+17	+15	=1564	54%	11
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1534	–20	+0	=1514	49%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1533	–20	+10	=1523	51%	5
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1535	–23	–3	=1509	46%	6
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1532	–6	+7	=1533	54%	7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1531	–22	+0	=1509	54%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1466	+2	+10	=1478	46%	0
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1530	+15	+0	=1545	61%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1467	–11	+10	=1466	39%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1533	–28	–1	=1504	54%	2
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+6	+9	=1479	46%	8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1534	–12	+0	=1522	41%	3
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1573	+0	+10	=1583	59%	6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1535	–3	–1	=1531	45%	6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1572	–15	+9	=1566	55%	9
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1537	–17	+0	=1520	48%	8
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+28	+10	=1538	52%	13
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:47 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1535	+8	+0	=1543	57%	8
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:47 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1502	–17	+10	=1495	43%	0
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1534	–15	+0	=1519	54%	5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1503	–21	+10	=1492	46%	2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1536	–29	–1	=1506	51%	0
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1501	–16	+12	=1497	49%	5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1479	–11	+0	=1468	41%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1535	–10	+10	=1535	59%	4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1478	+16	+0	=1494	45%	2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1536	–17	+10	=1529	55%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1480	+12	+4	=1496	42%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1534	+7	+10	=1551	58%	10
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1520	+57	+0	=1577	51%	7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1536	+26	+10	=1572	49%	2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1522	–21	+0	=1501	48%	0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1534	–31	+10	=1513	52%	4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1525	–22	+0	=1503	46%	1
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1532	–14	+10	=1528	54%	7
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1526	–24	–3	=1499	46%	10
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1531	–14	+10	=1527	54%	11
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1543	–5	+0	=1538	50%	1
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1530	+1	+10	=1541	50%	2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1544	+15	–2	=1557	49%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1528	+27	+8	=1563	51%	7
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1530	–27	+0	=1503	44%	2
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1543	–7	+10	=1546	56%	5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Foltynewicz	1533	+3	–3	=1533	49%	5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1540	–8	+10	=1542	51%	14
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1528	–16	+0	=1512	49%	14
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1529	–17	+10	=1522	51%	1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1527	–3	+0	=1524	50%	5
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1530	–18	+10	=1522	50%	3
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1528	+23	–3	=1548	44%	0
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1529	+54	+10	=1593	56%	1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments