2020 MLB Predictions

The Cardinals are done for the season.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Cubs Cubs34-26	—	✓	✓
Reds Reds31-29	3.0	✓	—
Cardinals Cardinals30-28	3.0	✓	—
Brewers Brewers29-31	5.0	✓	—
Pirates Pirates19-41	15.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/2Friday, Oct. 27 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1513	+29	+0	=1542	54%	0
10/2Friday, Oct. 27 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Stammen	1531	–18	+10	=1523	46%	4
10/1Thursday, Oct. 17 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1515	+8	+0	=1523	46%	9
10/1Thursday, Oct. 17 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1529	+7	+10	=1546	54%	11
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 305 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1512	+3	+1	=1516	46%	7
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 305 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1532	–9	+13	=1536	54%	4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1511	–2	+0	=1509	49%	2
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1510	–7	+10	=1513	51%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1509	+27	–2	=1534	51%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1512	+9	+8	=1529	49%	0
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1509	–14	–2	=1493	47%	9
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1512	–5	+8	=1515	53%	1
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1510	–1	+0	=1509	44%	3
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+32	+10	=1553	56%	0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1512	+20	–2	=1530	51%	2
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1509	+3	+8	=1520	49%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1513	–14	+0	=1499	55%	3
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1449	+8	+10	=1467	45%	12
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1511	–15	+0	=1496	52%	5
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1451	+18	+10	=1479	48%	0
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1513	+9	–3	=1519	60%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1449	–11	+8	=1446	40%	4
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1512	+29	+0	=1541	60%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1443	+16	+10	=1469	40%	1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1511	+8	–3	=1516	61%	5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1444	–8	+7	=1443	39%	4
9/18Friday, Sept. 188 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1445	–3	–3	=1439	42%	2
9/18Friday, Sept. 188 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1510	–17	+7	=1500	58%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1509	–9	+0	=1500	58%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1446	–12	+10	=1444	42%	5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1511	+0	–2	=1509	57%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1444	+5	+8	=1457	43%	5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1513	–20	+0	=1493	47%	0
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1508	–1	+10	=1517	53%	6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1512	+5	+0	=1517	46%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1509	+28	+10	=1547	54%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+37	+0	=1554	56%	3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1504	–4	+10	=1510	44%	18
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:30 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1516	–24	+0	=1492	45%	3
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:30 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1505	+12	+10	=1527	55%	2
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1517	–1	–2	=1514	52%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1504	–16	+10	=1498	48%	2
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	–16	+0	=1489	46%	10
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1519	–9	+10	=1520	54%	5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1507	–23	+0	=1484	44%	1
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1517	–4	+10	=1523	56%	7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1505	+4	–2	=1507	46%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1519	+6	+10	=1535	54%	1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Zimmermann	1441	–16	+0	=1425	38%	6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1521	–18	+10	=1513	62%	3
9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1443	+7	–2	=1448	33%	2
9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1519	+41	+12	=1572	67%	12
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1548	–11	+0	=1537	55%	4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1517	–23	+10	=1504	45%	6
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1546	+0	–2	=1544	53%	7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1519	–7	+8	=1520	47%	3
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1521	–16	+0	=1505	44%	1
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1522	+17	+10	=1549	56%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1519	–5	–2	=1512	50%	7
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1524	–20	+8	=1512	50%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:50 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Rea	1526	–21	–2	=1503	50%	1
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:50 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1517	–23	+8	=1502	50%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 55:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1516	+4	+0	=1520	51%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 55:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1527	–22	+10	=1515	49%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+42	+0	=1559	48%	1
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1526	+40	+8	=1574	52%	4
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1518	–18	+0	=1500	51%	3
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	–20	+10	=1495	49%	4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1513	–9	+0	=1504	44%	16
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1510	+30	+10	=1550	56%	2
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1512	–9	–2	=1501	49%	7
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1511	–10	+10	=1511	51%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1542	–7	+0	=1535	52%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1510	+1	+10	=1521	48%	7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1541	–16	+0	=1525	44%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+46	+10	=1567	56%	1
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1537	–38	+0	=1499	49%	14
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1515	–15	+10	=1510	51%	2
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:50 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1457	+1	+0	=1458	43%	2
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:50 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1516	–18	+10	=1508	57%	0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1456	+6	–2	=1460	42%	4
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1518	–14	+10	=1514	58%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1451	–3	+0	=1448	40%	5
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1517	–9	+10	=1518	60%	6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1449	–21	+0	=1428	36%	5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1518	+1	+10	=1529	64%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+23	–2	=1472	36%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+44	+10	=1571	64%	9
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1513	–27	+0	=1486	46%	2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1515	–13	+10	=1512	54%	6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1515	–33	+0	=1482	47%	0
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1513	–21	+10	=1502	53%	3
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1513	–11	+0	=1502	48%	4
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1515	–12	+10	=1513	52%	2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1514	+27	–2	=1539	52%	4
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1514	+3	+10	=1527	48%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 196 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1528	–33	–2	=1493	49%	4
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 196 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1515	–20	+8	=1503	51%	2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1513	+49	+0	=1562	53%	9
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1530	+2	+10	=1542	47%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1514	–11	–2	=1501	40%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1529	+31	+8	=1568	60%	6
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:02 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Miller	1528	–24	–2	=1502	47%	5
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:02 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Reyes	1515	–4	+8	=1519	53%	4
8/17Monday, Aug. 175:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1514	–21	–1	=1492	41%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 175:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1530	+17	+10	=1557	59%	1
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1516	–14	+0	=1502	49%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1493	+2	+10	=1505	51%	7
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1514	–20	+0	=1494	50%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Foster	1495	–8	+10	=1497	50%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1512	+1	+5	=1518	47%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1497	+31	+13	=1541	53%	1
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1513	–13	+0	=1500	41%	0
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1548	+4	+10	=1562	59%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1515	+0	+0	=1515	45%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bailey	1546	–8	+10	=1548	55%	6
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1465	–10	+0	=1455	41%	5
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1517	–12	+10	=1515	59%	1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1467	–3	+0	=1464	42%	1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1515	–4	+10	=1521	58%	9
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1468	+17	–3	=1482	37%	4
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1514	+48	+10	=1572	63%	5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments