Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cardinals have a 57% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1512, the same as last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs10-390%56%
CardinalsCardinals2-34.057%17%
BrewersBrewers5-64.057%15%
RedsReds6-84.552%12%
PiratesPirates3-117.54%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1460+03=145742%
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151211+15=151658%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146041%
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+1+10=152359%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 122 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146043%
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151214+10=150857%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1512202=149056%
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+10=144844%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151257%
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1439+12+10=146143%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1512+492=155957%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151043%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 152:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+29+10=153954%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151250%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1500+3+10=151350%
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+11=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1527+4+10=154154%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151214+0=149842%
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1527+16+10=155358%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+02=151449%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152051%
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+12=144539%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152261%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144740%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152260%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144740%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152260%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153051%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+12=152449%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153051%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152249%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153051%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152249%
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151048%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152652%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152652%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152652%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151247%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+8=153553%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+02=155054%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152046%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155254%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152246%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143838%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152262%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:15 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144038%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152262%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+02=151449%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151047%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152953%
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151056%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+8=146844%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151256%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147044%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151256%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147044%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 20STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151256%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147044%
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+01=151158%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+8=145542%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151258%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145742%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151258%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145742%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+12=151750%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152050%
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151048%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+8=152752%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+12=151750%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152050%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151950%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152250%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151950%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152250%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151313+0=150041%0
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1548+4+10=156259%3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
1515+0+0=151545%3
MINMINTwins
Bailey, Homer
Bailey
15468+10=154855%6
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
146510+0=145541%5
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151712+10=151559%1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14673+0=146442%1
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15154+10=152158%9
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+173=148237%4
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1514+48+10=157263%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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