Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cardinals are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs34-26
RedsReds31-293.0
CardinalsCardinals30-283.0
BrewersBrewers29-315.0
PiratesPirates19-4115.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/2Friday, Oct. 27 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1513+29+0=154254%0
SDSDPadres
Stammen, Craig
Stammen
153118+10=152346%4
10/1Thursday, Oct. 17 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1515+8+0=152346%9
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1529+7+10=154654%11
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 305 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1512+3+1=151646%7
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15329+13=153654%4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15112+0=150949%2
STLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
15107+10=151351%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1509+272=153451%3
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+9+8=152949%0
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
1509142=149347%9
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15125+8=151553%1
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
15101+0=150944%3
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1511+32+10=155356%0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1512+202=153051%2
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1509+3+8=152049%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
151314+0=149955%3
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1449+8+10=146745%12
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
151115+0=149652%5
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1451+18+10=147948%0
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1513+93=151960%1
KCKCRoyals
Hernandez, Carlos
Hernandez
144911+8=144640%4
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1512+29+0=154160%2
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1443+16+10=146940%1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1511+83=151661%5
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14448+7=144339%4
9/18Friday, Sept. 188 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
144533=143942%2
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151017+7=150058%7
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
15099+0=150058%6
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
144612+10=144442%5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
1511+02=150957%1
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1444+5+8=145743%5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151320+0=149347%0
MILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
15081+10=151753%6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+5+0=151746%4
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1509+28+10=154754%2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1517+37+0=155456%3
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15044+10=151044%18
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:30 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151624+0=149245%3
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1505+12+10=152755%2
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
151712=151452%1
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
150416+10=149848%2
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150516+0=148946%10
STLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
15199+10=152054%5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
150723+0=148444%1
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15174+10=152356%7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+42=150746%3
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1519+6+10=153554%1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
144116+0=142538%6
STLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
152118+10=151362%3
9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1443+72=144833%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1519+41+12=157267%12
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154811+0=153755%4
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151723+10=150445%6
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1546+02=154453%7
STLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
15197+8=152047%3
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
152116+0=150544%1
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1522+17+10=154956%5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151952=151250%7
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152420+8=151250%3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:50 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Rea, Colin
Rea
1526212=150350%1
STLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
151723+8=150250%5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 55:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1516+4+0=152051%4
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
152722+10=151549%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1517+42+0=155948%1
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1526+40+8=157452%4
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151818+0=150051%3
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150520+10=149549%4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
15139+0=150444%16
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1510+30+10=155056%2
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151292=150149%7
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151110+10=151151%5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
15427+0=153552%2
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1510+1+10=152148%7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154116+0=152544%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1511+46+10=156756%1
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153738+0=149949%14
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151515+10=151051%2
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:50 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1457+1+0=145843%2
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151618+10=150857%0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1456+62=146042%4
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
151814+10=151458%3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14513+0=144840%5
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15179+10=151860%6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
144921+0=142836%5
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1518+1+10=152964%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1451+232=147236%3
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1517+44+10=157164%9
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151327+0=148646%2
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151513+10=151254%6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151533+0=148247%0
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
151321+10=150253%3
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151311+0=150248%4
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151512+10=151352%2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1514+272=153952%4
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1514+3+10=152748%5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 196 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1528332=149349%4
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151520+8=150351%2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1513+49+0=156253%9
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1530+2+10=154247%3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
1514112=150140%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1529+31+8=156860%6
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:02 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Miller, Tyson
Miller
1528242=150247%5
STLSTLCardinals
Reyes, Alex
Reyes
15154+8=151953%4
8/17Monday, Aug. 175:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1514211=149241%3
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+17+10=155759%1
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151614+0=150249%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1493+2+10=150551%7
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Woodford, Jake
Woodford
151420+0=149450%6
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Foster, Matt
Foster
14958+10=149750%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+1+5=151847%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1497+31+13=154153%1
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151313+0=150041%0
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1548+4+10=156259%3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
1515+0+0=151545%3
MINMINTwins
Bailey, Homer
Bailey
15468+10=154855%6
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
146510+0=145541%5
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151712+10=151559%1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14673+0=146442%1
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15154+10=152158%9
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+173=148237%4
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1514+48+10=157263%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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