Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Diamondbacks are done for the season.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers43-17
PadresPadres37-236.0
GiantsGiants29-3114.0
RockiesRockies26-3417.0
DbacksDiamondbacks25-3518.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1476+6+0=148248%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14977+10=150052%11
9/26Saturday, Sept. 268:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1473+25+0=149849%10
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15003+10=150751%3
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Santos, Antonio
Santos
147516+0=145946%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
149821+10=148754%11
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1477+23=147641%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1496+29+12=153759%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Benjamin, Wes
Benjamin
145816+0=144244%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149520+10=148556%7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
1460232=143543%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
149214+9=148757%7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
149312+0=148138%2
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1554+4+10=156862%3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14943+0=149142%2
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
155412+10=155258%3
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1492+313=152042%6
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1556+13+10=157958%3
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149413+0=148146%3
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1489+7+10=150654%7
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
149212+0=148043%9
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1491+26+10=152757%6
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14917+0=148449%9
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149212+9=148951%8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1451+3+0=145444%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14937+10=149656%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1448+5+0=145338%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1495+34+10=153962%3
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
1449121=143643%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
149516+10=148957%4
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
15996+0=159364%2
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14927+10=149536%5
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1598+26+0=162470%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
149324+10=147930%4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1597+24+0=162168%10
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14947+7=149432%9
9/7Monday, Sept. 78:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1495+36+0=153157%2
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1471+0+10=148143%4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149717+0=148049%2
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1470+5+10=148551%4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14986+0=149253%3
SFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14684+10=147447%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
1497232=147249%6
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1469+0+9=147851%5
9/3Thursday, Sept. 39:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
149812+0=148630%1
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1599+22+10=163170%5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1498+31+0=152936%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1599+23+10=163264%3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149915+0=148435%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159811+9=159665%6
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1463+2+0=146547%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
150126+10=148553%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14624+0=145843%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15038+10=150557%2
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1463+63=146639%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1502+29+12=154361%7
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1491+11+0=150251%8
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
150316+10=149749%7
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1490+19+0=150951%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
150414+10=150049%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
148962=148149%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
150527+7=148551%2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15079+0=149855%1
SFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14619+10=146245%6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1510+28+0=153860%1
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1458+0+10=146840%5
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1512121=149955%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14563+10=146345%6
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
151414+0=150044%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1534+1+10=154556%5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1516+63=151949%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153315+7=152551%4
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 186:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1537+28+0=156558%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
151213+10=150942%10
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1538+103=154550%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1511+24+10=154550%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15051+0=150450%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
151014+10=150650%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
150627+0=147946%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
150914+10=150554%7
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1508+82=151449%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1507+4+9=152051%5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 123 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15058+0=149750%13
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
150117+10=149450%7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1506+23+0=152953%7
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
15001+10=150947%8
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
150493=149245%12
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1502+19+7=152855%8
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1506+4+0=151049%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1506+3+10=151951%9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1504+1+0=150547%3
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+10=152753%2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150682=149647%0
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1506+0+12=151853%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156931+0=153851%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1505+19+10=153449%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
157210+0=156258%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15028+10=150442%14
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157023+0=154753%8
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+9+12=152547%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1588+12+0=160062%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1505+0+10=151538%0
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+0=157559%11
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15076+10=151141%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
158710+0=157757%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1506+13+10=152943%5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158613=158261%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15077+7=150739%3
7/29Wednesday, July 294:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1509+7+0=151648%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1481+37+10=152852%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
150763=149853%4
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
148219+12=147547%1
7/27Monday, July 274 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1509+0+0=150950%2
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15056+10=150950%6
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1508+15+0=152351%4
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15063+10=151349%3
7/25Saturday, July 259:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15105+0=150549%1
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1504+0+10=151451%5
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1512+62=151649%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1502+10+10=152251%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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