Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Diamondbacks have a 28% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1504, down 3 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers10-40.599%82%
RockiesRockies10-372%11%
PadresPadres8-62.564%6%
DbacksDiamondbacks5-95.528%1%
GiantsGiants6-95.08%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1504+1+0=150547%
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+10=152753%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+4+0=150848%
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+3+10=152052%
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1504113=149045%
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1502+20+7=152955%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1504+20+0=152452%
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
15022+10=151048%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 123:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150410+0=149450%
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
150218+10=149450%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+32=150849%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1504+1+9=151451%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15073+0=150448%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+4+10=151852%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150751%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
150411+10=150349%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
153133=152549%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1504+20+10=153451%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 186:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1531+9+0=154055%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150410+10=150445%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+03=150145%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+7=153955%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150445%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154255%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+01=150356%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+02=150048%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+7=151152%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+13=145141%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151459%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151459%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151459%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150437%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+9=160163%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150436%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 39:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150436%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+02=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+9=146344%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+7=151139%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151439%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151439%
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144140%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151460%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151460%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151460%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150449%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+9=150951%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 1610 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150449%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151051%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150449%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151051%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+03=150139%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150440%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157760%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150440%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157760%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+9=151355%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151455%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+03=149948%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+12=151652%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 268:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150682=149647%0
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1506+0+12=151853%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156931+0=153851%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1505+19+10=153449%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
157210+0=156258%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15028+10=150442%14
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157023+0=154753%8
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+9+12=152547%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1588+12+0=160062%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1505+0+10=151538%0
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+0=157559%11
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15076+10=151141%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
158710+0=157757%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1506+13+10=152943%5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158613=158261%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15077+7=150739%3
7/29Wednesday, July 294:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1509+7+0=151648%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1481+37+10=152852%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
150763=149853%4
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
148219+12=147547%1
7/27Monday, July 274 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1509+0+0=150950%2
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15056+10=150950%6
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1508+15+0=152351%4
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15063+10=151349%3
7/25Saturday, July 259:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15105+0=150549%1
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1504+0+10=151451%5
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1512+62=151649%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1502+10+10=152251%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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