Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Dodgers have an 83% chance of winning the World Series.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers43-17
PadresPadres37-236.0
GiantsGiants29-3114.0
RockiesRockies26-3417.0
DbacksDiamondbacks25-3518.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/27Tuesday, Oct. 278:08 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1563+6+2=157141%
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1611+8+2=162159%
10/28Wednesday, Oct. 288:09 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1563+18+0=158140%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1611+21+0=163260%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/25Sunday, Oct. 258:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1609+23+0=163263%4
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15642+0=156237%2
10/24Saturday, Oct. 248:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
16116+0=160559%7
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15624+0=155841%8
10/23Friday, Oct. 238:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1609+18+2=162958%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1565+21+2=158842%2
10/21Wednesday, Oct. 218:08 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1562+4+0=156639%6
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1612+13+0=162561%4
10/20Tuesday, Oct. 208:11 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1564+1+5=157038%3
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1609+22+2=163362%8
10/18Sunday, Oct. 188:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1552+28+0=158047%3
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160812+0=159653%4
10/17Saturday, Oct. 174:38 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1554+19+0=157341%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1606+16+0=162259%3
10/16Friday, Oct. 169:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160410+0=159459%7
ATLATLBraves
Minter, A.J.
Minter
155611+0=154541%3
10/15Thursday, Oct. 158:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1610+25+0=163568%2
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
155010+0=154032%10
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 146:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
16067+0=159960%15
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
155410+0=154440%3
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 136:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1552+27+0=157941%8
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1608+17+0=162559%7
10/12Monday, Oct. 128:08 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1548+18+7=157338%5
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1612+16+7=163562%1
10/8Thursday, Oct. 89:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160911+0=159866%12
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
153118+0=151334%3
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 79:08 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1532+3+0=153532%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1608+26+0=163468%6
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 69:38 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1534+39+7=158041%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1606+16+7=162959%5
10/1Thursday, Oct. 110 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1508+33+0=154133%0
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1605+22+10=163767%3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3010 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
1509+1+1=151128%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1604+19+15=163872%4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
149413+0=148135%0
LADLADDodgers
Gonzalez, Victor
Gonzalez
160222+10=159065%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149519+0=147629%6
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1602+19+10=163171%7
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1496+19+1=151633%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1601+27+10=163867%9
9/24Thursday, Sept. 249:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15371+0=153637%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1599+16+10=162563%5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1536+10+0=154645%6
LADLADDodgers
Kelly, Joe
Kelly
160128+10=158355%4
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:30 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1537+3+0=154042%2
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159911+9=159758%7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1601+14+0=161568%3
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14754+10=148132%6
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1600+24+0=162472%6
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
147622+10=146428%1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Wood, Alex
Wood
159820+0=157865%15
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
147814+10=147435%6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 178:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
1597103=158463%9
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1479+4+10=149337%3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 164 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Graterol, Brusdar
Graterol
159619+0=157758%7
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
153422+10=152242%5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1595+10+0=160557%3
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1535+8+10=155343%1
9/14Monday, Sept. 149:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1597+241=162059%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1532+12+10=155441%7
9/13Sunday, Sept. 138 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1558+21+0=157949%1
LADLADDodgers
Graterol, Brusdar
Graterol
159521+10=158451%8
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155620+0=153642%7
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159612+10=159458%5
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
15996+0=159364%2
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14927+10=149536%5
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1598+26+0=162470%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
149324+10=147930%4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1597+24+0=162168%10
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14947+7=149432%9
9/6Sunday, Sept. 610:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
148210+0=147233%7
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159911+10=159867%6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1480+17+0=149733%5
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1602+6+10=161867%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
148161=147432%6
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
16008+10=160268%10
9/3Thursday, Sept. 39:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
149812+0=148630%1
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1599+22+10=163170%5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1498+31+0=152936%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1599+23+10=163264%3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149915+0=148435%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159811+9=159665%6
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:35 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1597+9+0=160670%7
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146619+10=145730%2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
159521+0=157457%7
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1467+50+10=152743%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159894=158564%2
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1464+8+12=148436%6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Ferguson, Caleb
Ferguson
159730+0=156764%2
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14646+10=146836%0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 274:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1596+21+2=161969%7
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
1465+1+12=147831%0
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:45 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15988+0=159065%8
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1463+5+12=148035%10
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14919+0=148235%3
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
159618+10=158865%11
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1491+2+0=149336%3
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159511+10=159464%4
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1493+133=150334%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1594+20+7=162166%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1593+17+0=161073%6
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
143812+10=143627%1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159563=158668%4
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1436+15+7=145832%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1437+25+0=146230%1
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1594+2+10=160670%2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1437+23=143629%9
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15949+9=159471%11
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
15929+0=158362%8
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149610+10=149638%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 159:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1591+22+0=161364%6
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1496+5+10=151136%5
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1590+111=160063%7
LAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
14982+12=150837%4
8/13Thursday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1511+6+0=151740%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15888+10=159060%11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1512+2+0=151439%0
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
15865+10=159161%6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15103+0=150738%6
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15894+10=159562%2
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Perdomo, Luis
Perdomo
1508391=146833%2
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
15909+10=159167%1
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14557+0=144827%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1590+22+10=162273%6
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+2+0=145528%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161772%4
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+83=145932%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15909+11=159268%7
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15893+0=158660%7
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15071+10=151640%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158814+0=157458%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1508+2+10=152042%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1589+252=161263%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1506+11+7=152437%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1588+12+0=160062%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1505+0+10=151538%0
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+0=157559%11
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15076+10=151141%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
158710+0=157757%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1506+13+10=152943%5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158613=158261%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15077+7=150739%3
7/29Wednesday, July 297 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158516+0=156953%4
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157033+10=154747%2
7/28Tuesday, July 289:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1584+281=161160%5
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
157241+10=154140%2
7/26Sunday, July 2610 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
14521+0=145132%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+10=158568%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14513+0=144832%5
LADLADDodgers
Wood, Alex
Wood
158818+10=158068%4
7/24Friday, July 249:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1452+3+0=145531%1
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15865+10=159169%9
7/23Thursday, July 2310 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1454+22=145433%1
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158417+10=157767%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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