Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Dodgers have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1591, up 5 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers10-40.599%82%
RockiesRockies10-372%11%
PadresPadres8-62.564%6%
DbacksDiamondbacks5-95.528%1%
GiantsGiants6-95.08%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+2+0=145528%
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161772%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14537+0=144627%
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1591+21+10=162273%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
150731=150338%
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159110+10=159162%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150737%
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15914+10=159763%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1507+3+0=151038%
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15919+10=159262%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+0=151736%
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161764%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1591+211=161163%
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1499+7+12=151837%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 159:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159110+0=158161%
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14994+10=150539%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15914+0=158759%
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1499+13+10=152241%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1440+23=143929%
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15919+9=159171%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1440+27+0=146730%
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161770%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+13=158969%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+7=144931%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159269%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145231%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+03=149936%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+7=159964%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2310:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:45 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159267%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+12=146633%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 2610 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159268%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146432%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 279:15 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159268%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146432%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+14=158864%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148636%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159265%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148635%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:35 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159265%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148635%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150437%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+9=160163%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150436%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 39:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150436%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+01=150136%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 610:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+7=151139%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151439%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151439%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156745%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160255%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 13HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156745%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160255%
9/14Monday, Sept. 149:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+1=159361%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151739%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151739%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 164 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151739%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 178:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+13=158961%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 2210 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153240%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+9=160160%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153240%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160260%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 249:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153240%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160260%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+1=150136%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150036%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150036%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+83=145932%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15909+11=159268%7
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15893+0=158660%7
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15071+10=151640%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158814+0=157458%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1508+2+10=152042%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1589+252=161263%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1506+11+7=152437%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1588+12+0=160062%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1505+0+10=151538%0
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+0=157559%11
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15076+10=151141%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
158710+0=157757%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1506+13+10=152943%5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158613=158261%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15077+7=150739%3
7/29Wednesday, July 297 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158516+0=156953%4
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157033+10=154747%2
7/28Tuesday, July 289:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1584+281=161160%5
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
157241+10=154140%2
7/26Sunday, July 2610 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
14521+0=145132%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+10=158568%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14513+0=144832%5
LADLADDodgers
Wood, Alex
Wood
158818+10=158068%4
7/24Friday, July 249:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1452+3+0=145531%1
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15865+10=159169%9
7/23Thursday, July 2310 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1454+22=145433%1
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158417+10=157767%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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