2020 MLB Predictions

The Giants are done for the season.

NL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Dodgers Dodgers43-17	—	✓	✓
Padres Padres37-23	6.0	✓	—
Giants Giants29-31	14.0	—	—
Rockies Rockies26-34	17.0	—	—
Dbacks Diamondbacks25-35	18.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1531	–22	+0	=1509	53%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1476	+3	+10	=1489	47%	4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1529	+5	–2	=1532	57%	6
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1478	–6	+8	=1480	43%	2
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Samardzija	1478	+1	–2	=1477	39%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1528	+21	+8	=1557	61%	6
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1529	–3	+0	=1526	55%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1477	+2	+10	=1489	45%	5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1476	–20	+0	=1456	44%	5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1478	+10	+10	=1498	56%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1478	–21	+0	=1457	47%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Baragar	1476	–6	+10	=1480	53%	7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1479	+4	+0	=1483	50%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1475	+2	+10	=1487	50%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1477	+21	–3	=1495	51%	7
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1477	+1	+9	=1487	49%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1472	–1	+0	=1471	36%	14
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Minor	1543	+16	+10	=1569	64%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 194:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1474	+6	+0	=1480	41%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 194:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1541	–8	+10	=1543	59%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1475	–2	–3	=1470	38%	0
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1539	+7	+9	=1555	62%	6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1474	+2	+0	=1476	55%	6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1450	–21	+10	=1439	45%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1472	+0	+2	=1474	51%	9
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1452	–1	+12	=1463	49%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1473	–3	+0	=1470	41%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1531	–7	+10	=1534	59%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1474	+3	+5	=1482	37%	0
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1529	+35	+15	=1579	63%	6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1476	–5	–2	=1469	41%	1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1528	–4	+10	=1534	59%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1452	–19	+0	=1433	43%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1474	–3	+10	=1481	57%	10
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1453	–1	–3	=1449	45%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1473	–1	+10	=1482	55%	6
9/7Monday, Sept. 78:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1495	+36	+0	=1531	57%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 78:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1471	+0	+10	=1481	43%	4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Young	1497	–17	+0	=1480	49%	2
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1470	+5	+10	=1485	51%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1498	–6	+0	=1492	53%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1468	–4	+10	=1474	47%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:45 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Clarke	1497	–23	–2	=1472	49%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1469	+0	+9	=1478	51%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1471	–1	+0	=1470	47%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1479	+3	+10	=1492	53%	9
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1465	–3	–1	=1461	43%	23
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1485	+12	+10	=1507	57%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1463	+2	+0	=1465	47%	4
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Clarke	1501	–26	+10	=1485	53%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1462	–4	+0	=1458	43%	5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1503	–8	+10	=1505	57%	2
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1463	+6	–3	=1466	39%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1502	+29	+12	=1543	61%	7
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Ferguson	1597	–30	+0	=1567	64%	2
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1464	–6	+10	=1468	36%	0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 274:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1596	+21	+2	=1619	69%	7
8/27Thursday, Aug. 274:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1465	+1	+12	=1478	31%	0
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:45 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1598	–8	+0	=1590	65%	8
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1463	+5	+12	=1480	35%	10
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1507	–9	+0	=1498	55%	1
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1461	–9	+10	=1462	45%	6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1510	+28	+0	=1538	60%	1
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1458	+0	+10	=1468	40%	5
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:45 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Ray	1512	–12	–1	=1499	55%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1456	–3	+10	=1463	45%	6
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:45 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1489	–34	+0	=1455	49%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1454	–3	+10	=1461	51%	10
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:45 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1492	–1	–2	=1489	54%	2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1451	+5	+8	=1464	46%	7
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1448	–8	+0	=1440	38%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Bundy	1495	+21	+10	=1526	62%	2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1449	+3	–2	=1450	42%	6
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1494	+2	+10	=1506	58%	7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fiers	1535	–8	+0	=1527	60%	15
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1452	–2	+10	=1460	40%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1534	–2	+0	=1532	60%	7
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1452	–2	+10	=1460	40%	6
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:45 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1533	–6	+0	=1527	59%	8
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1453	+1	+8	=1462	41%	7
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1454	–9	+0	=1445	31%	1
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1563	+15	+10	=1588	69%	5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1453	+5	+0	=1458	38%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1564	–27	+10	=1547	62%	6
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1454	+0	–3	=1451	36%	4
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1563	–16	+6	=1553	64%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1455	–7	+0	=1448	27%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1590	+22	+10	=1622	73%	6
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1453	+2	+0	=1455	28%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1591	+16	+10	=1617	72%	4
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Samardzija	1454	+8	–3	=1459	32%	2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1590	–9	+11	=1592	68%	7
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1455	+1	+0	=1456	43%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1499	–3	+10	=1506	57%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1454	–5	+0	=1449	39%	4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1500	+20	+10	=1530	61%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1455	–8	+0	=1447	38%	2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1499	+26	+10	=1535	62%	5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1456	+2	–3	=1455	45%	6
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1499	–17	+10	=1492	55%	7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1477	–18	+0	=1459	47%	9
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Samardzija	1458	+14	+10	=1482	53%	5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1479	–15	+0	=1464	50%	3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1456	+1	+10	=1467	50%	7
7/31Friday, July 319 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Minor	1482	+18	–2	=1498	55%	2
7/31Friday, July 319 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1453	–1	+10	=1462	45%	9
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1507	+1	+0	=1508	58%	12
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1454	–10	+10	=1454	42%	7
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1509	+11	+0	=1520	58%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1453	+4	+10	=1467	42%	7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1507	–1	–2	=1504	53%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Samardzija	1454	+17	+10	=1481	47%	3
7/26Sunday, July 2610 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1452	–1	+0	=1451	32%	3
7/26Sunday, July 2610 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1586	–11	+10	=1585	68%	1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1451	–3	+0	=1448	32%	5
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Wood	1588	–18	+10	=1580	68%	4
7/24Friday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1452	+3	+0	=1455	31%	1
7/24Friday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stripling	1586	–5	+10	=1591	69%	9
7/23Thursday, July 2310 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1454	+2	–2	=1454	33%	1
7/23Thursday, July 2310 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1584	–17	+10	=1577	67%	8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments