2020 MLB Predictions

The Indians are done for the season.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Twins Twins36-24	—	✓	✓
Indians Indians35-25	1.0	✓	—
White Sox White Sox35-25	1.0	✓	—
Royals Royals26-34	10.0	—	—
Tigers Tigers23-35	12.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 307 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1561	–8	+0	=1553	53%	10
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 307 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1530	–1	+10	=1539	47%	9
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 297 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1557	+44	+0	=1601	55%	12
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 297 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1534	+29	+12	=1575	45%	3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1450	+4	+0	=1454	44%	6
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1533	–49	+10	=1494	56%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1446	+17	+0	=1463	41%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1536	–18	+10	=1528	59%	0
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1447	–5	–2	=1440	36%	3
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1536	–6	+10	=1540	64%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1518	+9	+0	=1527	49%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1535	–11	+10	=1534	51%	5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1519	+33	+0	=1552	48%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1534	+25	+10	=1569	52%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1520	–18	+0	=1502	52%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1532	–55	+10	=1487	48%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Dunning	1522	+3	–2	=1523	50%	4
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1531	–15	+9	=1525	50%	7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1529	–10	+0	=1519	60%	7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1438	–1	+10	=1447	40%	4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1531	–33	+0	=1498	55%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1437	+14	+10	=1461	45%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1531	–15	+0	=1516	61%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1437	–7	+10	=1440	39%	0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1529	+27	–2	=1554	64%	10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1439	+4	+10	=1453	36%	3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1530	–13	+0	=1517	50%	2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1530	–23	+10	=1517	50%	3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1531	–9	+0	=1522	42%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1529	+41	+11	=1581	58%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1532	–29	+0	=1503	41%	5
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1549	+7	+10	=1566	59%	7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1533	–14	+0	=1519	45%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1548	–2	+10	=1556	55%	8
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1535	+26	–3	=1558	48%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1547	+15	+13	=1575	52%	3
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1444	–5	+0	=1439	36%	11
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1539	–13	+10	=1536	64%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1442	+14	+0	=1456	38%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1541	–12	+10	=1539	62%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1440	+0	+0	=1440	39%	8
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1543	–31	+10	=1522	61%	6
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1441	+26	–3	=1464	40%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1542	–16	+10	=1536	60%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1508	+2	+0	=1510	41%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1540	+25	+10	=1575	59%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1509	+27	+0	=1536	50%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1539	–12	+10	=1537	50%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1506	–5	+0	=1501	45%	7
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1542	–13	+9	=1538	55%	1
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1540	–40	+0	=1500	56%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1449	–1	+10	=1458	44%	0
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1538	–17	+0	=1521	62%	10
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1451	–24	+10	=1437	38%	1
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1540	+25	–2	=1563	62%	1
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+20	+8	=1478	38%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1542	–7	+0	=1535	52%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1510	+1	+10	=1521	48%	7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1541	–16	+0	=1525	44%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+46	+10	=1567	56%	1
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1537	–38	+0	=1499	49%	14
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1515	–15	+10	=1510	51%	2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1552	–2	+0	=1550	49%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1535	+14	+10	=1559	51%	6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1553	–1	+0	=1552	48%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1534	+23	+10	=1567	52%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1552	+14	–3	=1563	54%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1535	–6	+10	=1539	46%	2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1432	–7	+0	=1425	35%	7
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1537	–11	+10	=1536	65%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1434	–4	+0	=1430	40%	1
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1536	–47	+10	=1499	60%	6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1431	+4	–2	=1433	40%	10
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plutko	1538	–45	+8	=1501	60%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1537	+19	+0	=1556	63%	2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1453	+1	+10	=1464	37%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1535	–14	+0	=1521	58%	6
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1455	+2	+10	=1467	42%	1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1534	–9	+0	=1525	58%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1456	–3	+15	=1468	42%	3
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plutko	1533	–42	+0	=1491	55%	8
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1439	+5	+10	=1454	45%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1532	+15	+0	=1547	61%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1440	+19	+10	=1469	39%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1530	–11	+1	=1520	60%	10
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Nova	1442	–2	+12	=1452	40%	5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1530	+16	+0	=1546	52%	7
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1532	–8	+10	=1534	48%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1527	–14	+4	=1517	52%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plutko	1535	–44	+10	=1501	48%	1
8/9Sunday, Aug. 97 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1534	+15	+0	=1549	52%	5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 97 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1497	+29	+10	=1536	48%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1531	–23	+0	=1508	52%	7
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Foster	1500	–13	+10	=1497	48%	1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1533	–16	–2	=1515	53%	0
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1498	–17	+10	=1491	47%	2
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1518	+6	+0	=1524	49%	0
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1529	–10	+10	=1529	51%	13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1519	–33	–2	=1484	41%	0
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1528	+12	+8	=1548	59%	2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1527	+17	+0	=1544	57%	4
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1520	–34	+10	=1496	43%	2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1527	–23	–3	=1501	42%	2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1519	+28	+8	=1555	58%	3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1529	–19	+0	=1510	47%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Clippard	1551	–28	+10	=1533	53%	3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1530	–8	+0	=1522	45%	0
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1549	–1	+10	=1558	55%	3
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1532	+18	+0	=1550	51%	1
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1548	–12	+10	=1546	49%	4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1530	+9	–3	=1536	47%	2
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1549	–4	+10	=1555	53%	0
7/29Wednesday, July 296:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1491	+27	+0	=1518	51%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1532	–29	+10	=1513	49%	0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:45 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1493	+2	+0	=1495	49%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 287:45 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plutko	1531	–41	+10	=1500	51%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 283:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1494	–14	+0	=1480	44%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 283:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1530	–19	+12	=1523	56%	4
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bolanos	1449	–13	+0	=1436	37%	2
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1528	–8	+10	=1530	63%	9
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1447	–7	+0	=1440	33%	3
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1530	+21	+10	=1561	67%	2
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1448	+11	–3	=1456	37%	0
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1529	+7	+10	=1546	63%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments