2020 MLB Predictions

The Mariners are done for the season.

AL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Athletics Athletics36-24	—	✓	✓
Astros Astros29-31	7.0	✓	—
Mariners Mariners27-33	9.0	—	—
Angels Angels26-34	10.0	—	—
Rangers Rangers22-38	14.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1456	+31	–3	=1484	43%	2
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1530	–2	+7	=1535	57%	6
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1534	–24	–3	=1507	57%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:35 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1452	+2	+7	=1461	43%	12
9/26Saturday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1450	+11	+0	=1461	36%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Minor	1537	+13	+10	=1560	64%	1
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1451	–15	–1	=1435	33%	1
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1536	+12	+8	=1556	67%	3
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1554	+12	+0	=1566	68%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1449	–23	+10	=1436	32%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1552	–18	+0	=1534	62%	6
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1451	–12	+10	=1449	38%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1555	–5	–4	=1546	58%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1448	+29	+10	=1487	42%	6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1532	+16	+0	=1548	62%	7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1449	+4	+10	=1463	38%	4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Patino	1534	–22	+0	=1512	56%	1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1447	+12	+10	=1469	44%	4
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1533	–6	–1	=1526	61%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1449	–9	+10	=1450	39%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1474	+2	+0	=1476	55%	6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1450	–21	+10	=1439	45%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1472	+0	+2	=1474	51%	9
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1452	–1	+12	=1463	49%	3
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Minor	1537	+15	+0	=1552	63%	9
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Yacabonis	1454	–2	+10	=1462	37%	0
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1538	+0	–4	=1534	56%	5
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1453	+30	+7	=1490	44%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1451	+3	+0	=1454	44%	7
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1493	–7	+10	=1496	56%	3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1448	+5	+0	=1453	38%	7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1495	+34	+10	=1539	62%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1449	–12	–1	=1436	43%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Smith	1495	–16	+10	=1489	57%	4
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1452	–19	+0	=1433	43%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1474	–3	+10	=1481	57%	10
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1453	–1	–3	=1449	45%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1473	–1	+10	=1482	55%	6
9/7Monday, Sept. 74:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1460	–7	+0	=1453	45%	4
9/7Monday, Sept. 74:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1451	+28	+10	=1489	55%	8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1461	–28	+0	=1433	45%	3
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1450	+6	+10	=1466	55%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1462	–20	+0	=1442	47%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1449	+4	+10	=1463	53%	5
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Cody	1464	–18	–4	=1442	50%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1447	–16	+14	=1445	50%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 314:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1446	+23	+0	=1469	47%	2
8/31Monday, Aug. 314:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Barria	1489	–6	+10	=1493	53%	1
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1445	+0	+0	=1445	42%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1491	+4	+10	=1505	58%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 299:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1448	+12	+0	=1460	42%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 299:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Bundy	1487	+20	+10	=1517	58%	16
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1449	–19	–1	=1429	39%	2
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1487	+9	+12	=1508	61%	3
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:30 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1446	–14	+0	=1432	37%	8
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:30 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1517	–2	+10	=1525	63%	3
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1447	+1	+2	=1450	38%	7
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1515	+11	+12	=1538	62%	10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1444	+27	–1	=1470	42%	8
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1518	–2	+12	=1528	58%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Minor	1468	+11	+0	=1479	55%	1
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1442	–10	+10	=1442	45%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1471	–20	+0	=1451	49%	1
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1439	+10	+10	=1459	51%	10
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1473	–12	–3	=1458	54%	4
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1437	–18	+10	=1429	46%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1593	+17	+0	=1610	73%	6
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1438	–12	+10	=1436	27%	1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1595	–6	–3	=1586	68%	4
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Walker	1436	+15	+7	=1458	32%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1437	+25	+0	=1462	30%	1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1594	+2	+10	=1606	70%	2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1437	+2	–3	=1436	29%	9
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stripling	1594	–9	+9	=1594	71%	11
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1438	+6	+0	=1444	33%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1566	–11	+10	=1565	67%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1439	–23	+0	=1416	32%	1
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1566	–27	+10	=1549	68%	2
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Cortes	1441	–5	+0	=1436	35%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1564	–34	+12	=1542	65%	11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Walker	1442	+12	+0	=1454	48%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1477	–18	+10	=1469	52%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1443	+26	+0	=1469	46%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Minor	1476	+10	+10	=1496	54%	4
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1440	+0	–4	=1436	45%	10
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1479	–18	+10	=1471	55%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1504	+28	+0	=1532	62%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1438	–2	+10	=1446	38%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1502	–17	+0	=1485	59%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1440	–27	+10	=1423	41%	0
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1500	–19	–3	=1478	55%	8
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1442	–10	+10	=1442	45%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Bundy	1498	+7	+0	=1505	55%	6
8/6Thursday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Walker	1444	+16	+10	=1470	45%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Teheran	1499	–2	+0	=1497	53%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1443	+26	+10	=1479	47%	7
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 410 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1498	+7	–1	=1504	56%	5
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 410 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1444	+6	+10	=1460	44%	3
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1524	+16	+0	=1540	62%	11
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1446	–3	+10	=1453	38%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1523	+2	+0	=1525	61%	3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Graveman	1447	–9	+10	=1448	39%	2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fiers	1522	+0	+0	=1522	61%	3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1448	–16	+10	=1442	39%	2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1524	+10	–1	=1533	60%	3
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Walker	1446	+12	+7	=1465	40%	5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1444	+27	+0	=1471	44%	8
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Bundy	1501	+6	+10	=1517	56%	5
7/29Wednesday, July 2910 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1442	+12	+0	=1454	41%	10
7/29Wednesday, July 2910 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1503	+6	+10	=1519	59%	7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1444	+4	–3	=1445	42%	2
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1500	–6	+8	=1502	58%	10
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Graveman	1445	–3	+0	=1442	34%	5
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	James	1571	–21	+10	=1560	66%	8
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1443	–14	+0	=1429	28%	7
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1572	+12	+10	=1594	72%	6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Walker	1445	+14	+0	=1459	34%	2
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1571	–7	+10	=1574	66%	7
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1446	+25	–4	=1467	30%	2
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1570	+34	+10	=1614	70%	8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments