Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Mariners are done for the season.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics36-24
AstrosAstros29-317.0
MarinersMariners27-339.0
AngelsAngels26-3410.0
RangersRangers22-3814.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1456+313=148443%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
15302+7=153557%6
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Blackburn, Paul
Blackburn
1534243=150757%3
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1452+2+7=146143%12
9/26Saturday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1450+11+0=146136%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1537+13+10=156064%1
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
1451151=143533%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1536+12+8=155667%3
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1554+12+0=156668%2
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144923+10=143632%3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155218+0=153462%6
SEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
145112+10=144938%1
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
155554=154658%1
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1448+29+10=148742%6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1532+16+0=154862%7
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1449+4+10=146338%4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Patino, Luis
Patino
153422+0=151256%1
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1447+12+10=146944%4
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
153361=152661%6
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
14499+10=145039%1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1474+2+0=147655%6
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
145021+10=143945%4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:45 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1472+0+2=147451%9
SEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
14521+12=146349%3
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1537+15+0=155263%9
SEASEAMariners
Yacabonis, Jimmy
Yacabonis
14542+10=146237%0
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
1538+04=153456%5
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1453+30+7=149044%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1451+3+0=145444%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14937+10=149656%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1448+5+0=145338%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1495+34+10=153962%3
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
1449121=143643%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
149516+10=148957%4
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
145219+0=143343%1
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
14743+10=148157%10
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
145313=144945%5
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14731+10=148255%6
9/7Monday, Sept. 74:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
14607+0=145345%4
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1451+28+10=148955%8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
146128+0=143345%3
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1450+6+10=146655%4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146220+0=144247%3
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1449+4+10=146353%5
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
1464184=144250%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144716+14=144550%6
8/31Monday, Aug. 314:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1446+23+0=146947%2
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14896+10=149353%1
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1445+0+0=144542%2
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1491+4+10=150558%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 299:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1448+12+0=146042%3
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1487+20+10=151758%16
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
1449191=142939%2
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1487+9+12=150861%3
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:30 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144614+0=143237%8
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15172+10=152563%3
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
1447+1+2=145038%7
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1515+11+12=153862%10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1444+271=147042%8
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15182+12=152858%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1468+11+0=147955%1
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
144210+10=144245%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147120+0=145149%1
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1439+10+10=145951%10
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
1473123=145854%4
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
143718+10=142946%7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1593+17+0=161073%6
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
143812+10=143627%1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159563=158668%4
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1436+15+7=145832%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1437+25+0=146230%1
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1594+2+10=160670%2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1437+23=143629%9
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15949+9=159471%11
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1438+6+0=144433%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156611+10=156567%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
143923+0=141632%1
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156627+10=154968%2
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Cortes, Nestor
Cortes
14415+0=143635%1
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156434+12=154265%11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1442+12+0=145448%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147718+10=146952%7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1443+26+0=146946%2
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+10+10=149654%4
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1440+04=143645%10
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147918+10=147155%2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1504+28+0=153262%3
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14382+10=144638%5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
150217+0=148559%5
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144027+10=142341%0
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1500193=147855%8
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144210+10=144245%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1498+7+0=150555%6
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1444+16+10=147045%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14992+0=149753%6
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1443+26+10=147947%7
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 410 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1498+71=150456%5
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1444+6+10=146044%3
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1524+16+0=154062%11
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14463+10=145338%1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1523+2+0=152561%3
SEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14479+10=144839%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1522+0+0=152261%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144816+10=144239%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1524+101=153360%3
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1446+12+7=146540%5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1444+27+0=147144%8
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1501+6+10=151756%5
7/29Wednesday, July 2910 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1442+12+0=145441%10
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1503+6+10=151959%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1444+43=144542%2
LAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
15006+8=150258%10
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14453+0=144234%5
HOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
157121+10=156066%8
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144314+0=142928%7
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1572+12+10=159472%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1445+14+0=145934%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15717+10=157466%7
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1446+254=146730%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1570+34+10=161470%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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