Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Mariners have a 7% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1440, down 8 points from last week.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics10-495%53%
AstrosAstros6-73.591%42%
AngelsAngels5-95.034%3%
RangersRangers4-85.022%2%
MarinersMariners5-105.57%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
150217+0=148559%
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144027+10=142341%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1502+29+0=153162%
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14402+10=144838%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1440+24=143846%
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147617+10=146954%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1440+27+0=146746%
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+10+10=149654%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1440+13+0=145348%
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147616+10=147052%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
14409+0=143135%
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156738+12=154165%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144027+0=141330%
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156718+10=155970%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14402+0=143833%
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156717+10=156067%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1440+23=143929%
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15919+9=159171%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1440+27+0=146730%
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161770%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+13=158969%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+7=144931%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159269%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145231%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+03=147353%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145247%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144139%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+12=151961%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144239%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151761%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 274:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144239%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151761%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144141%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+7=150759%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 299:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151060%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151060%
8/31Monday, Aug. 314:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151060%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+12=153062%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+7=144938%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153261%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145239%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153261%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145239%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+04=147253%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145247%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
9/7Monday, Sept. 74:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+23=143947%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146453%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144247%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146453%
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144140%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151460%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151460%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144240%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151460%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+11=145350%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+9=145150%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145450%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145250%
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+01=150658%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+12=145442%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150758%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145242%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150758%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145242%
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+04=156365%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145235%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156766%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145234%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156766%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145234%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144136%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+8=154064%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144236%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154264%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144236%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154264%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1500193=147855%8
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144210+10=144245%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1498+7+0=150555%6
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1444+16+10=147045%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14992+0=149753%6
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1443+26+10=147947%7
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 410 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1498+71=150456%5
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1444+6+10=146044%3
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1524+16+0=154062%11
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14463+10=145338%1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1523+2+0=152561%3
SEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14479+10=144839%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1522+0+0=152261%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144816+10=144239%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1524+101=153360%3
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1446+12+7=146540%5
7/30Thursday, July 309:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1444+27+0=147144%8
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1501+6+10=151756%5
7/29Wednesday, July 2910 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1442+12+0=145441%10
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1503+6+10=151959%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1444+43=144542%2
LAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
15006+8=150258%10
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14453+0=144234%5
HOUHOUAstros
James, Josh
James
157121+10=156066%8
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144314+0=142928%7
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1572+12+10=159472%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1445+14+0=145934%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15717+10=157466%7
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1446+254=146730%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1570+34+10=161470%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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