2020 MLB Predictions

The Mets are done for the season.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-25	—	✓	✓
Marlins Marlins31-29	4.0	✓	—
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.0	—	—
Nationals Nationals26-34	9.0	—	—
Mets Mets26-34	9.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1516	–12	+0	=1504	49%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1524	–22	+10	=1512	51%	15
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:30 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1518	–6	+0	=1512	49%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1523	–15	+10	=1518	51%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 263:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1519	+58	+2	=1579	52%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 263:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1522	+29	+12	=1563	48%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1518	–10	–2	=1506	46%	3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1523	+1	+10	=1534	54%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1552	+4	+0	=1556	57%	8
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1519	–24	+10	=1505	43%	5
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1554	+8	+0	=1562	57%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1517	–15	+10	=1512	43%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fairbanks	1553	–27	–2	=1524	41%	2
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1518	+58	+10	=1586	59%	1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1537	–35	+0	=1502	47%	7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–9	+10	=1522	53%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1540	+17	+0	=1557	56%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1519	–13	+10	=1516	44%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1536	+27	+0	=1563	58%	15
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1522	–20	+9	=1511	42%	2
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1520	–8	+0	=1512	45%	10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+36	+10	=1549	55%	6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1519	+61	+0	=1580	56%	5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+24	+10	=1538	44%	4
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–13	+0	=1508	53%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1502	–19	+7	=1490	47%	4
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1522	–19	+0	=1503	47%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1490	+26	+10	=1526	53%	7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1524	–8	+0	=1516	55%	2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1489	–15	+10	=1484	45%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1520	+61	+0	=1581	61%	18
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1492	–2	+12	=1502	39%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1437	–18	+0	=1419	36%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1519	–8	+10	=1521	64%	7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+11	+0	=1444	40%	11
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1523	–22	+10	=1511	60%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1505	+23	+0	=1528	51%	9
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1524	–12	+10	=1522	49%	8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1508	+35	+0	=1543	44%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1521	+56	+10	=1587	56%	14
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1510	–26	+0	=1484	45%	1
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1519	–12	+10	=1517	55%	5
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1508	–23	–1	=1484	45%	5
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–12	+10	=1519	55%	3
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1568	–19	–1	=1548	58%	7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1519	–36	+8	=1491	42%	9
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1517	–23	+0	=1494	56%	9
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1426	+16	+10	=1452	44%	4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Jurado	1520	–40	–2	=1478	57%	5
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1424	–1	+8	=1431	43%	9
8/31Monday, Aug. 311:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1461	–2	–3	=1456	32%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 311:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1522	+59	+10	=1591	68%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 305:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1569	–38	–1	=1530	52%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 305:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1523	–14	+9	=1518	48%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1524	–17	+0	=1507	46%	7
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1568	–39	+10	=1539	54%	8
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1525	–41	–1	=1483	41%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1567	–27	+9	=1549	59%	2
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Loaisiga	1568	–31	–1	=1536	52%	3
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1524	–11	+9	=1522	48%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1522	–23	+1	=1500	40%	6
8/28Friday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1570	–11	+9	=1568	60%	4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1466	+8	–3	=1471	34%	4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1522	+57	+7	=1586	66%	5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1524	–16	–3	=1505	56%	0
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1464	–6	+7	=1465	44%	3
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 255:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1462	–10	–2	=1450	39%	4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 255:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1526	–14	+14	=1526	61%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1525	+56	+0	=1581	65%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1460	+7	+10	=1477	35%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Oswalt	1523	–23	+0	=1500	55%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Mejia	1462	–7	+10	=1465	45%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1521	–39	–3	=1479	51%	11
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1465	–5	+10	=1470	49%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1522	–13	+0	=1509	48%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1498	+15	+10	=1523	52%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1524	–23	+0	=1501	44%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1496	+34	+10	=1540	56%	6
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lockett	1525	–47	–1	=1477	49%	5
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1495	–21	+10	=1484	51%	6
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1540	–18	+0	=1522	51%	2
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1523	–17	+10	=1516	49%	8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1543	–22	+0	=1521	54%	6
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1520	–39	+10	=1491	46%	11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1542	+20	+0	=1562	57%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–16	+10	=1515	43%	1
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1539	+1	–2	=1538	53%	16
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1524	–18	+10	=1516	47%	4
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+6	+0	=1470	33%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1524	+57	+10	=1591	67%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1466	–8	+0	=1458	42%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1522	–18	+10	=1514	58%	8
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Mejia	1465	–8	–3	=1454	42%	4
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1523	–25	+10	=1508	58%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1522	–23	+0	=1499	38%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1548	+22	+10	=1580	62%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1523	–15	–3	=1505	42%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1547	+1	+15	=1563	58%	5
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1520	+57	+0	=1577	51%	7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1536	+26	+10	=1572	49%	2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1522	–21	+0	=1501	48%	0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1534	–31	+10	=1513	52%	4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1525	–22	+0	=1503	46%	1
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1532	–14	+10	=1528	54%	7
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1526	–24	–3	=1499	46%	10
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1531	–14	+10	=1527	54%	11
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1506	–18	+0	=1488	45%	4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1527	–13	+10	=1524	55%	2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1504	+7	–2	=1509	38%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1528	+55	+8	=1591	62%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1526	–26	+0	=1500	48%	8
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hall	1506	–5	+10	=1511	52%	3
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1525	–25	–2	=1498	48%	7
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Osich	1508	–5	+10	=1513	52%	4
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1528	–16	+0	=1512	49%	14
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1529	–17	+10	=1522	51%	1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1527	–3	+0	=1524	50%	5
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1530	–18	+10	=1522	50%	3
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1528	+23	–3	=1548	44%	0
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1529	+54	+10	=1593	56%	1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments