Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Mets are done for the season.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves35-25
MarlinsMarlins31-294.0
PhilliesPhillies28-327.0
NationalsNationals26-349.0
MetsMets26-349.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
151612+0=150449%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152422+10=151251%15
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15186+0=151249%3
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152315+10=151851%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 263:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1519+58+2=157952%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1522+29+12=156348%4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
1518102=150646%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1523+1+10=153454%2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1552+4+0=155657%8
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
151924+10=150543%5
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1554+8+0=156257%2
NYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
151715+10=151243%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Fairbanks, Peter
Fairbanks
1553272=152441%2
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1518+58+10=158659%1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153735+0=150247%7
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15219+10=152253%0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1540+17+0=155756%2
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
151913+10=151644%7
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+27+0=156358%15
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152220+9=151142%2
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
15208+0=151245%10
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+36+10=154955%6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1519+61+0=158056%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1504+24+10=153844%4
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152113+0=150853%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150219+7=149047%4
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152219+0=150347%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1490+26+10=152653%7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
15248+0=151655%2
TORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
148915+10=148445%3
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1520+61+0=158161%18
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14922+12=150239%1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
143718+0=141936%6
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15198+10=152164%7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1433+11+0=144440%11
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152322+10=151160%2
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1505+23+0=152851%9
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152412+10=152249%8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1508+35+0=154344%1
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1521+56+10=158756%14
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
151026+0=148445%1
NYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
151912+10=151755%5
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1508231=148445%5
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152112+10=151955%3
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
1568191=154858%7
NYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
151936+8=149142%9
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
151723+0=149456%9
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1426+16+10=145244%4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Jurado, Ariel
Jurado
1520402=147857%5
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14241+8=143143%9
8/31Monday, Aug. 311:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
146123=145632%5
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+59+10=159168%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 305:20 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
1569381=153052%5
NYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
152314+9=151848%2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152417+0=150746%7
NYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
156839+10=153954%8
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
1525411=148341%1
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
156727+9=154959%2
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:20 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
1568311=153652%3
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152411+9=152248%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152223+1=150040%6
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157011+9=156860%4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+83=147134%4
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+57+7=158666%5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
1524163=150556%0
MIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
14646+7=146544%3
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 255:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
1462102=145039%4
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152614+14=152661%0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1525+56+0=158165%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+7+10=147735%3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Oswalt, Corey
Oswalt
152323+0=150055%8
MIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
14627+10=146545%3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
1521393=147951%11
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
14655+10=147049%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152213+0=150948%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1498+15+10=152352%6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152423+0=150144%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1496+34+10=154056%6
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lockett, Walker
Lockett
1525471=147749%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
149521+10=148451%6
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154018+0=152251%2
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152317+10=151649%8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154322+0=152154%6
NYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
152039+10=149146%11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1542+20+0=156257%2
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152116+10=151543%1
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1539+12=153853%16
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152418+10=151647%4
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+6+0=147033%2
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1524+57+10=159167%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14668+0=145842%4
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+10=151458%8
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
146583=145442%4
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152325+10=150858%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152223+0=149938%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+22+10=158062%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
1523153=150542%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1547+1+15=156358%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1520+57+0=157751%7
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1536+26+10=157249%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152221+0=150148%0
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153431+10=151352%4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152522+0=150346%1
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153214+10=152854%7
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
1526243=149946%10
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153114+10=152754%11
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150618+0=148845%4
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152713+10=152455%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+72=150938%6
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1528+55+8=159162%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152626+0=150048%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hall, Matt
Hall
15065+10=151152%3
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1525252=149848%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Osich, Josh
Osich
15085+10=151352%4
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
152816+0=151249%14
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152917+10=152251%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15273+0=152450%5
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
153018+10=152250%3
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+233=154844%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1529+54+10=159356%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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