Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Mets have a 38% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1522, down 3 points from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves9-51.084%44%
NationalsNationals4-64.070%29%
PhilliesPhillies3-43.540%11%
MarlinsMarlins7-136%9%
MetsMets5-95.038%7%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146643%
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+10=151457%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1466+5+0=147134%
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+56+10=158866%
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1541+12=154054%
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152219+10=151346%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1541+20+0=156157%
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152218+10=151443%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154122+0=151952%
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152226+10=150648%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+0=151550%
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+10=151450%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+561=157762%
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150120+10=149138%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152219+0=150345%
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+28+10=153955%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152218+0=150446%
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152954%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1522263=149352%
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+1+10=147748%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+0=150454%
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1466+1+10=147746%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152156%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147644%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 206:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152156%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147644%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+01=157256%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+7=152844%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157356%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153144%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157356%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153144%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+02=146440%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+12=153360%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146641%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153159%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146641%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153159%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
152211=152041%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+9=158259%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152141%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158359%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152141%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158359%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152163%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+8=142837%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152163%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143037%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150045%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153155%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150146%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153154%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150146%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153154%
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150146%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153154%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142035%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153165%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142035%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153165%
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152155%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+12=148945%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:37 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152155%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148745%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:07 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152155%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148745%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152152%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+7=150848%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152151%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151149%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152151%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151149%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153651%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+9=153049%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153651%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153651%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+02=153350%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153150%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153551%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153551%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
152212=151946%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152146%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:15 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152146%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152146%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
146583=145442%4
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152325+10=150858%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152223+0=149938%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+22+10=158062%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
1523153=150542%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1547+1+15=156358%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1520+57+0=157751%7
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1536+26+10=157249%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152221+0=150148%0
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153431+10=151352%4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152522+0=150346%1
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153214+10=152854%7
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
1526243=149946%10
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153114+10=152754%11
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150618+0=148845%4
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152713+10=152455%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+72=150938%6
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1528+55+8=159162%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152626+0=150048%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hall, Matt
Hall
15065+10=151152%3
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1525252=149848%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Osich, Josh
Osich
15085+10=151352%4
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
152816+0=151249%14
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152917+10=152251%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15273+0=152450%5
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
153018+10=152250%3
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+233=154844%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1529+54+10=159356%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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