2020 MLB Predictions

The Orioles are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays40-20	—	✓	✓
Yankees Yankees33-27	7.0	✓	—
Blue Jays Blue Jays32-28	8.0	✓	—
Orioles Orioles25-35	15.0	—	—
Red Sox Red Sox24-36	16.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1434	+9	+0	=1443	45%	7
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1492	–23	+10	=1479	55%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1436	+21	+0	=1457	45%	2
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1491	–11	+10	=1490	55%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1437	–17	–2	=1418	38%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1490	+4	+10	=1504	62%	10
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1433	–4	+0	=1429	40%	13
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1491	+2	+10	=1503	60%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1435	+14	+0	=1449	41%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1489	+11	+10	=1510	59%	9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1437	+9	+0	=1446	43%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1487	–2	+12	=1497	57%	8
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1554	–8	+0	=1546	62%	1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1435	+14	+10	=1459	38%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1554	+14	+0	=1568	69%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1436	–17	+10	=1429	31%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1553	+3	–3	=1553	66%	2
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1437	–7	+7	=1437	34%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1438	–6	–3	=1429	35%	6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1552	–25	+7	=1534	65%	10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1551	+6	–3	=1554	63%	3
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1439	+11	+10	=1460	37%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Hamels	1539	+11	+0	=1550	64%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1436	+2	+10	=1448	36%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1538	–17	+0	=1521	63%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1437	–20	+10	=1427	37%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1544	–8	–1	=1535	66%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1432	–19	+8	=1421	34%	14
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+14	+0	=1447	35%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1560	–19	+10	=1551	65%	3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1433	+8	+0	=1441	35%	1
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1560	–18	+10	=1552	65%	2
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1435	+9	+0	=1444	33%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1558	–4	+10	=1564	67%	10
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1436	–1	+1	=1436	28%	0
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1557	+37	+10	=1604	72%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1437	–18	+0	=1419	36%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1519	–8	+10	=1521	64%	7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+11	+0	=1444	40%	11
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1523	–22	+10	=1511	60%	2
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1561	–1	+0	=1560	67%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1430	–2	+10	=1438	33%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1565	+38	+0	=1603	72%	1
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1426	+3	+10	=1439	28%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1567	–27	+0	=1540	67%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1424	–18	+10	=1416	33%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1566	–36	–2	=1528	65%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1425	–13	+12	=1424	35%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1517	–23	+0	=1494	56%	9
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1426	+16	+10	=1452	44%	4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Jurado	1520	–40	–2	=1478	57%	5
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1424	–1	+8	=1431	43%	9
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1423	–1	+0	=1422	39%	4
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1490	–1	+10	=1499	61%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1424	–20	+0	=1404	39%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1489	–15	+10	=1484	61%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1425	+4	+0	=1429	41%	0
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1487	–2	+10	=1495	59%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1426	+17	–1	=1442	38%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1487	+29	+12	=1528	62%	5
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1427	+0	+0	=1427	35%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1548	–27	+10	=1531	65%	4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1427	–7	–1	=1419	32%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1548	–7	+10	=1551	68%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1494	–19	+0	=1475	58%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1426	–15	+10	=1421	42%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1495	–7	+0	=1488	57%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1425	+3	+10	=1438	43%	5
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1494	–2	+0	=1492	55%	8
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1426	+19	+10	=1455	45%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1492	+4	–2	=1494	58%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1428	+1	+10	=1439	42%	1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1480	–13	+0	=1467	55%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1430	–8	+10	=1432	45%	2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1479	–23	+0	=1456	54%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1431	–14	+10	=1427	46%	7
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1477	+22	–2	=1497	57%	7
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1433	+3	+10	=1446	43%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1534	+25	+0	=1559	63%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+22	+10	=1465	37%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1537	+5	+0	=1542	64%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1431	+0	+10	=1441	36%	7
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Strasburg	1535	+20	–2	=1553	67%	15
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1433	–8	+9	=1434	33%	3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1426	–21	+0	=1405	37%	11
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1499	–12	+10	=1497	63%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1425	–14	+0	=1411	38%	5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–17	+10	=1493	62%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1423	+1	+0	=1424	36%	10
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1502	+16	+10	=1528	64%	9
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1430	–3	+0	=1427	30%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Strasburg	1538	+24	+10	=1572	70%	2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1421	–23	+0	=1398	33%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1541	–26	+10	=1525	67%	3
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1416	–12	–3	=1401	31%	11
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1546	–18	+12	=1540	69%	0
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1417	–8	+0	=1409	40%	7
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1464	+4	+10	=1478	60%	8
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1417	–4	–3	=1410	41%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1463	+4	+7	=1474	59%	2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1462	–3	+0	=1459	54%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1418	+0	+10	=1428	46%	0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1460	+0	+6	=1466	52%	4
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1420	+21	+12	=1453	48%	0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1538	–6	+0	=1532	67%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1417	–16	+10	=1411	33%	5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1539	–6	+0	=1533	66%	4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1416	–8	+10	=1418	34%	5
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1542	+4	–3	=1543	67%	3
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1413	+1	+10	=1424	33%	6
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1571	–26	+0	=1545	64%	8
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1414	+25	+10	=1449	36%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1570	+52	+4	=1626	76%	9
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1415	–1	+13	=1427	24%	3
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1413	–10	+0	=1403	37%	7
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1510	–23	+10	=1497	63%	4
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1410	–3	+0	=1407	37%	7
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1513	–20	+10	=1503	63%	2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1412	–15	–2	=1395	32%	2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1511	+2	+10	=1523	68%	13

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments