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The Orioles are done for the season.
Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | RaysRays40-20 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
![]() | YankeesYankees33-27 | 7.0 | ✓ | — | ||
![]() | Blue JaysBlue Jays32-28 | 8.0 | ✓ | — | ||
![]() | OriolesOrioles25-35 | 15.0 | — | — | ||
![]() | Red SoxRed Sox24-36 | 16.0 | — | — |
Date | Team | Starting pitcher | Team rating | Starting pitcher adj. | Travel, rest & home field adj. | Pregame team rating | Win prob.Chance of winning | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1434 | +9 | +0 | =1443 | 45% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1492 | –23 | +10 | =1479 | 55% | 5 | |
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1436 | +21 | +0 | =1457 | 45% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1491 | –11 | +10 | =1490 | 55% | 5 | |
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –17 | –2 | =1418 | 38% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1490 | +4 | +10 | =1504 | 62% | 10 | |
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1433 | –4 | +0 | =1429 | 40% | 13 |
![]() | ![]() | 1491 | +2 | +10 | =1503 | 60% | 1 | |
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1435 | +14 | +0 | =1449 | 41% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1489 | +11 | +10 | =1510 | 59% | 9 | |
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1437 | +9 | +0 | =1446 | 43% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1487 | –2 | +12 | =1497 | 57% | 8 | |
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1554 | –8 | +0 | =1546 | 62% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1435 | +14 | +10 | =1459 | 38% | 2 | |
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1554 | +14 | +0 | =1568 | 69% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1436 | –17 | +10 | =1429 | 31% | 1 | |
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1553 | +3 | –3 | =1553 | 66% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –7 | +7 | =1437 | 34% | 1 | |
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1438 | –6 | –3 | =1429 | 35% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | –25 | +7 | =1534 | 65% | 10 | |
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1551 | +6 | –3 | =1554 | 63% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1439 | +11 | +10 | =1460 | 37% | 1 | |
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1539 | +11 | +0 | =1550 | 64% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1436 | +2 | +10 | =1448 | 36% | 5 | |
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1538 | –17 | +0 | =1521 | 63% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –20 | +10 | =1427 | 37% | 1 | |
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1544 | –8 | –1 | =1535 | 66% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1432 | –19 | +8 | =1421 | 34% | 14 | |
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1433 | +14 | +0 | =1447 | 35% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1560 | –19 | +10 | =1551 | 65% | 3 | |
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1433 | +8 | +0 | =1441 | 35% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1560 | –18 | +10 | =1552 | 65% | 2 | |
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1435 | +9 | +0 | =1444 | 33% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1558 | –4 | +10 | =1564 | 67% | 10 | |
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1436 | –1 | +1 | =1436 | 28% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1557 | +37 | +10 | =1604 | 72% | 6 | |
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –18 | +0 | =1419 | 36% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1519 | –8 | +10 | =1521 | 64% | 7 | |
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1433 | +11 | +0 | =1444 | 40% | 11 |
![]() | ![]() | 1523 | –22 | +10 | =1511 | 60% | 2 | |
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1561 | –1 | +0 | =1560 | 67% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1430 | –2 | +10 | =1438 | 33% | 5 | |
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1565 | +38 | +0 | =1603 | 72% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1426 | +3 | +10 | =1439 | 28% | 6 | |
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1567 | –27 | +0 | =1540 | 67% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1424 | –18 | +10 | =1416 | 33% | 6 | |
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1566 | –36 | –2 | =1528 | 65% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1425 | –13 | +12 | =1424 | 35% | 5 | |
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1517 | –23 | +0 | =1494 | 56% | 9 |
![]() | ![]() | 1426 | +16 | +10 | =1452 | 44% | 4 | |
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1520 | –40 | –2 | =1478 | 57% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1424 | –1 | +8 | =1431 | 43% | 9 | |
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1423 | –1 | +0 | =1422 | 39% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1490 | –1 | +10 | =1499 | 61% | 3 | |
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1424 | –20 | +0 | =1404 | 39% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1489 | –15 | +10 | =1484 | 61% | 6 | |
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1425 | +4 | +0 | =1429 | 41% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1487 | –2 | +10 | =1495 | 59% | 5 | |
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1426 | +17 | –1 | =1442 | 38% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1487 | +29 | +12 | =1528 | 62% | 5 | |
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1427 | +0 | +0 | =1427 | 35% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –27 | +10 | =1531 | 65% | 4 | |
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1427 | –7 | –1 | =1419 | 32% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –7 | +10 | =1551 | 68% | 4 | |
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1494 | –19 | +0 | =1475 | 58% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1426 | –15 | +10 | =1421 | 42% | 5 | |
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1495 | –7 | +0 | =1488 | 57% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1425 | +3 | +10 | =1438 | 43% | 5 | |
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1494 | –2 | +0 | =1492 | 55% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1426 | +19 | +10 | =1455 | 45% | 5 | |
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1492 | +4 | –2 | =1494 | 58% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1428 | +1 | +10 | =1439 | 42% | 1 | |
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1480 | –13 | +0 | =1467 | 55% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1430 | –8 | +10 | =1432 | 45% | 2 | |
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1479 | –23 | +0 | =1456 | 54% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1431 | –14 | +10 | =1427 | 46% | 7 | |
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1477 | +22 | –2 | =1497 | 57% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1433 | +3 | +10 | =1446 | 43% | 2 | |
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1534 | +25 | +0 | =1559 | 63% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1433 | +22 | +10 | =1465 | 37% | 5 | |
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1537 | +5 | +0 | =1542 | 64% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1431 | +0 | +10 | =1441 | 36% | 7 | |
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1535 | +20 | –2 | =1553 | 67% | 15 |
![]() | ![]() | 1433 | –8 | +9 | =1434 | 33% | 3 | |
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1426 | –21 | +0 | =1405 | 37% | 11 |
![]() | ![]() | 1499 | –12 | +10 | =1497 | 63% | 4 | |
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1425 | –14 | +0 | =1411 | 38% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1500 | –17 | +10 | =1493 | 62% | 4 | |
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1423 | +1 | +0 | =1424 | 36% | 10 |
![]() | ![]() | 1502 | +16 | +10 | =1528 | 64% | 9 | |
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1430 | –3 | +0 | =1427 | 30% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1538 | +24 | +10 | =1572 | 70% | 2 | |
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1421 | –23 | +0 | =1398 | 33% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1541 | –26 | +10 | =1525 | 67% | 3 | |
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1416 | –12 | –3 | =1401 | 31% | 11 |
![]() | ![]() | 1546 | –18 | +12 | =1540 | 69% | 0 | |
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1417 | –8 | +0 | =1409 | 40% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1464 | +4 | +10 | =1478 | 60% | 8 | |
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1417 | –4 | –3 | =1410 | 41% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1463 | +4 | +7 | =1474 | 59% | 2 | |
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1462 | –3 | +0 | =1459 | 54% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1418 | +0 | +10 | =1428 | 46% | 0 | |
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1460 | +0 | +6 | =1466 | 52% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1420 | +21 | +12 | =1453 | 48% | 0 | |
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1538 | –6 | +0 | =1532 | 67% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1417 | –16 | +10 | =1411 | 33% | 5 | |
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1539 | –6 | +0 | =1533 | 66% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1416 | –8 | +10 | =1418 | 34% | 5 | |
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1542 | +4 | –3 | =1543 | 67% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1413 | +1 | +10 | =1424 | 33% | 6 | |
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1571 | –26 | +0 | =1545 | 64% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1414 | +25 | +10 | =1449 | 36% | 6 | |
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1570 | +52 | +4 | =1626 | 76% | 9 |
![]() | ![]() | 1415 | –1 | +13 | =1427 | 24% | 3 | |
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1413 | –10 | +0 | =1403 | 37% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1510 | –23 | +10 | =1497 | 63% | 4 | |
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1410 | –3 | +0 | =1407 | 37% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1513 | –20 | +10 | =1503 | 63% | 2 | |
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1412 | –15 | –2 | =1395 | 32% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1511 | +2 | +10 | =1523 | 68% | 13 |
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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