Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Orioles are done for the season.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
RaysRays40-20
YankeesYankees33-277.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays32-288.0
OriolesOrioles25-3515.0
Red SoxRed Sox24-3616.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1434+9+0=144345%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149223+10=147955%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1436+21+0=145745%2
TORTORBlue Jays
Zeuch, T.J.
Zeuch
149111+10=149055%5
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
1437172=141838%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1490+4+10=150462%10
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14334+0=142940%13
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
1491+2+10=150360%1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1435+14+0=144941%1
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1489+11+10=151059%9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1437+9+0=144643%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
14872+12=149757%8
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15548+0=154662%1
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1435+14+10=145938%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1554+14+0=156869%3
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
143617+10=142931%1
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1553+33=155366%2
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14377+7=143734%1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Zimmermann, Bruce
Zimmermann
143863=142935%6
TBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
155225+7=153465%10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1551+63=155463%3
BALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1439+11+10=146037%1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
1539+11+0=155064%1
BALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1436+2+10=144836%5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153817+0=152163%5
BALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
143720+10=142737%1
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
154481=153566%1
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
143219+8=142134%14
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1433+14+0=144735%1
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
156019+10=155165%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1433+8+0=144135%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
156018+10=155265%2
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1435+9+0=144433%1
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15584+10=156467%10
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14361+1=143628%0
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1557+37+10=160472%6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
143718+0=141936%6
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15198+10=152164%7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1433+11+0=144440%11
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152322+10=151160%2
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15611+0=156067%1
BALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
14302+10=143833%5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1565+38+0=160372%1
BALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1426+3+10=143928%6
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
156727+0=154067%3
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
142418+10=141633%6
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
1566362=152865%6
BALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142513+12=142435%5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
151723+0=149456%9
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1426+16+10=145244%4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:35 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Jurado, Ariel
Jurado
1520402=147857%5
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14241+8=143143%9
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
14231+0=142239%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14901+10=149961%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
142420+0=140439%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148915+10=148461%6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1425+4+0=142941%0
TORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
14872+10=149559%5
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1426+171=144238%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1487+29+12=152862%5
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1427+0+0=142735%3
TBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
154827+10=153165%4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
142771=141932%2
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15487+10=155168%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
149419+0=147558%4
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142615+10=142142%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14957+0=148857%4
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1425+3+10=143843%5
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
14942+0=149255%8
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1426+19+10=145545%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1492+42=149458%7
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1428+1+10=143942%1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148013+0=146755%5
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
14308+10=143245%2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147923+0=145654%8
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
143114+10=142746%7
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+222=149757%7
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1433+3+10=144643%2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1534+25+0=155963%6
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1433+22+10=146537%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1537+5+0=154264%3
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1431+0+10=144136%7
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1535+202=155367%15
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
14338+9=143433%3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142621+0=140537%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
149912+10=149763%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142514+0=141138%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+10=149362%4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1423+1+0=142436%10
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1502+16+10=152864%9
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14303+0=142730%6
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1538+24+10=157270%2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142123+0=139833%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+10=152567%3
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1416123=140131%11
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154618+12=154069%0
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14178+0=140940%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1464+4+10=147860%8
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
141743=141041%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1463+4+7=147459%2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
14623+0=145954%1
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1418+0+10=142846%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+0+6=146652%4
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1420+21+12=145348%0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15386+0=153267%1
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
141716+10=141133%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15396+0=153366%4
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14168+10=141834%5
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1542+43=154367%3
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1413+1+10=142433%6
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157126+0=154564%8
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1414+25+10=144936%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1570+52+4=162676%9
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14151+13=142724%3
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
141310+0=140337%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
151023+10=149763%4
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14103+0=140737%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
151320+10=150363%2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1412152=139532%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1511+2+10=152368%13

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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