Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Orioles have a 7% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1421, up 5 points from last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees9-499%80%
RaysRays6-73.078%14%
Red SoxRed Sox5-84.044%4%
Blue JaysBlue Jays4-74.031%2%
OriolesOrioles6-73.07%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142123+0=139833%
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+10=152567%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1421+21+0=144232%
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1541+23+10=157468%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1421+1+0=142235%
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152965%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14213+0=141839%
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150115+10=149661%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142114+0=140738%
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150116+10=149562%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1541+232=156265%
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1421+21+9=145135%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1541+1+0=154266%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143034%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1541+20+0=156168%
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1421+1+10=143232%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+192=149459%
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14213+10=142841%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14779+0=146857%
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142114+10=141743%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147757%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143043%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
150612=150360%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143040%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150561%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143039%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150561%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143039%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150561%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143039%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142111=141933%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154567%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142033%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154567%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142033%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154567%
8/28Friday, Aug. 286:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142113=141740%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148760%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
8/31Monday, Aug. 312:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152163%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+8=142837%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152163%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143037%
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+12=143231%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143031%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143031%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143031%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142035%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153165%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142035%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153165%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142111=141928%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+8=158172%
9/11Friday, Sept. 117:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142028%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158372%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142028%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158372%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142028%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158372%
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+01=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+8=142835%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153665%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153665%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+03=153264%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143036%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142036%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+12=151764%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142037%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151563%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142037%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151563%
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142112=141840%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148760%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:37 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:07 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142041%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148759%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1416123=140131%11
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154618+12=154069%0
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14178+0=140940%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1464+4+10=147860%8
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
141743=141041%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1463+4+7=147459%2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
14623+0=145954%1
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1418+0+10=142846%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+0+6=146652%4
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1420+21+12=145348%0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15386+0=153267%1
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
141716+10=141133%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15396+0=153366%4
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14168+10=141834%5
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1542+43=154367%3
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1413+1+10=142433%6
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157126+0=154564%8
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1414+25+10=144936%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1570+52+4=162676%9
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14151+13=142724%3
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
141310+0=140337%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
151023+10=149763%4
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14103+0=140737%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
151320+10=150363%2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1412152=139532%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1511+2+10=152368%13

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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