2020 MLB Predictions

The Phillies are done for the season.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-25	—	✓	✓
Marlins Marlins31-29	4.0	✓	—
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.0	—	—
Nationals Nationals26-34	9.0	—	—
Mets Mets26-34	9.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+28	+0	=1528	49%	0
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1556	–30	+10	=1536	51%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1501	+23	+0	=1524	48%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1555	–28	+10	=1537	52%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1502	–18	–1	=1483	37%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1554	+14	+9	=1577	63%	6
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1499	–11	+0	=1488	48%	12
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1526	–34	+10	=1502	52%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Hale	1500	–21	+0	=1479	46%	7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Espino	1525	–27	+10	=1508	54%	8
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 223:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+31	+0	=1533	54%	1
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 223:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1523	–28	+10	=1505	46%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+23	–2	=1525	52%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1521	–16	+7	=1512	48%	5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1480	+1	+0	=1481	48%	6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Medina	1506	–19	+10	=1497	52%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1482	+31	+0	=1513	53%	1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1504	–21	+10	=1493	47%	3
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1483	–13	–2	=1468	47%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Hale	1503	–19	+8	=1492	53%	8
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–16	–2	=1482	50%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1485	–9	+8	=1484	50%	0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1520	–8	+0	=1512	45%	10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+36	+10	=1549	55%	6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1519	+61	+0	=1580	56%	5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+24	+10	=1538	44%	4
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–13	+0	=1508	53%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1502	–19	+7	=1490	47%	4
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1504	–18	+0	=1486	51%	2
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1466	+2	+10	=1478	49%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:55 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1507	–14	+0	=1493	54%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:55 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1463	–5	+10	=1468	46%	8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Rosso	1508	–20	+0	=1488	50%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1462	+18	+10	=1490	50%	2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1505	–25	+0	=1480	51%	12
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1465	+1	+10	=1476	49%	6
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Parker	1507	–24	+0	=1483	52%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:30 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1463	–7	+10	=1466	48%	5
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1504	+30	+0	=1534	58%	11
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1466	+2	+10	=1478	42%	0
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1505	–20	–1	=1484	50%	6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1465	+12	+7	=1484	50%	7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1484	–4	+0	=1480	48%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1507	–22	+10	=1495	52%	2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1485	+2	+0	=1487	48%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1506	–11	+9	=1504	52%	6
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1505	+23	+0	=1528	51%	9
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1524	–12	+10	=1522	49%	8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1508	+35	+0	=1543	44%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1521	+56	+10	=1587	56%	14
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1510	–26	+0	=1484	45%	1
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1519	–12	+10	=1517	55%	5
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1508	–23	–1	=1484	45%	5
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–12	+10	=1519	55%	3
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1523	–17	+0	=1506	50%	5
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1507	–12	+10	=1505	50%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1525	+28	+0	=1553	53%	0
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1506	+19	+10	=1535	47%	3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1527	+6	+0	=1533	49%	0
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+31	+10	=1544	51%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1529	–44	–2	=1483	50%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1502	–26	+10	=1486	50%	8
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Milone	1535	–16	+0	=1519	53%	12
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1503	–14	+10	=1499	47%	10
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1536	–24	+0	=1512	52%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1501	–16	+10	=1495	48%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1538	–17	–1	=1520	49%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1500	+20	+10	=1530	51%	7
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1499	+30	+0	=1529	47%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1531	+6	+10	=1547	53%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1496	–14	–1	=1481	48%	8
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1533	–45	+10	=1498	52%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1495	–15	+0	=1480	44%	5
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1536	–20	+10	=1526	56%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1496	+19	+0	=1515	48%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1535	–17	+10	=1528	52%	6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1499	+38	–3	=1534	46%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1532	+17	+15	=1564	54%	11
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1500	–19	+0	=1481	50%	8
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1482	–12	+10	=1480	50%	9
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1501	–29	–2	=1470	47%	2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1481	+0	+8	=1489	53%	3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1502	–14	+0	=1488	50%	3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hart	1490	–13	+10	=1487	50%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–17	+0	=1483	50%	13
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1493	–20	+8	=1481	50%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1522	–13	+0	=1509	48%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1498	+15	+10	=1523	52%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1524	–23	+0	=1501	44%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1496	+34	+10	=1540	56%	6
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lockett	1525	–47	–1	=1477	49%	5
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1495	–21	+10	=1484	51%	6
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1426	–21	+0	=1405	37%	11
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1499	–12	+10	=1497	63%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1425	–14	+0	=1411	38%	5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–17	+10	=1493	62%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1423	+1	+0	=1424	36%	10
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1502	+16	+10	=1528	64%	9
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Newcomb	1537	–17	+0	=1520	48%	8
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+28	+10	=1538	52%	13
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:47 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1535	+8	+0	=1543	57%	8
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:47 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1502	–17	+10	=1495	43%	0
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1534	–15	+0	=1519	54%	5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1503	–21	+10	=1492	46%	2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1536	–29	–1	=1506	51%	0
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1501	–16	+12	=1497	49%	5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1575	–11	+0	=1564	60%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–17	+10	=1493	40%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Loaisiga	1574	–33	–1	=1540	51%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1501	+25	+9	=1535	49%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1499	+20	+2	=1521	44%	11
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1576	–27	+12	=1561	56%	7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1500	–15	+6	=1491	30%	3
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1575	+52	+10	=1637	70%	6
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Dugger	1458	–20	+0	=1438	42%	11
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1503	–16	+10	=1497	58%	6
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Smith	1459	–7	+0	=1452	39%	1
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1501	+18	+10	=1529	61%	7
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1457	+14	–3	=1468	40%	5
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+26	+10	=1539	60%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments