Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Phillies have a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1501, up 1 point from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves9-51.084%44%
NationalsNationals4-64.070%29%
PhilliesPhillies3-43.540%11%
MarlinsMarlins7-136%9%
MetsMets5-95.038%7%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1536291=150651%
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150116+12=149749%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+7+0=154357%
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150120+10=149143%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153654%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153616+0=152047%
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+28+10=153953%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1421+1+0=142235%
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152965%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14213+0=141839%
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150115+10=149661%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142114+0=140738%
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150116+10=149562%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+561=157762%
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150120+10=149138%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152219+0=150345%
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+28+10=153955%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152218+0=150446%
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152954%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150115+0=148649%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+8=149651%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150148%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151552%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+02=149952%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+8=148548%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150152%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148748%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+03=149843%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+12=154857%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150043%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+01=153554%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+8=150946%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153654%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153654%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+02=153954%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150045%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153155%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150146%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153154%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150146%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153154%
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150146%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153154%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150549%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+9=151051%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150549%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151151%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150054%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+7=147346%
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152152%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+7=150848%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152151%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151149%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152151%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151149%
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+02=149952%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+8=148548%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+02=147545%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+8=150955%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151155%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 20TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151155%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+7=154856%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150044%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+9=154456%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157511+0=156460%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+10=149340%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
1574331=154051%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+25+9=153549%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1499+20+2=152144%11
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157627+12=156156%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150015+6=149130%3
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1575+52+10=163770%6
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Dugger, Robert
Dugger
145820+0=143842%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150316+10=149758%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14597+0=145239%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152961%7
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1457+143=146840%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+26+10=153960%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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