Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Phillies are done for the season.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves35-25
MarlinsMarlins31-294.0
PhilliesPhillies28-327.0
NationalsNationals26-349.0
MetsMets26-349.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1500+28+0=152849%0
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155630+10=153651%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+23+0=152448%3
TBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
155528+10=153752%4
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
1502181=148337%4
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1554+14+9=157763%6
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
149911+0=148848%12
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152634+10=150252%3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Hale, David
Hale
150021+0=147946%7
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
152527+10=150854%8
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 223:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1502+31+0=153354%1
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152328+10=150546%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1504+232=152552%1
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152116+7=151248%5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1480+1+0=148148%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Medina, Adonis
Medina
150619+10=149752%3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1482+31+0=151353%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150421+10=149347%3
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
1483132=146847%7
PHIPHIPhillies
Hale, David
Hale
150319+8=149253%8
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
1500162=148250%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
14859+8=148450%0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
15208+0=151245%10
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+36+10=154955%6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1519+61+0=158056%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1504+24+10=153844%4
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152113+0=150853%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150219+7=149047%4
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150418+0=148651%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1466+2+10=147849%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:55 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150714+0=149354%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Garrett, Braxton
Garrett
14635+10=146846%8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Rosso, Ramon
Rosso
150820+0=148850%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1462+18+10=149050%2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150525+0=148051%12
MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
1465+1+10=147649%6
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Parker, Blake
Parker
150724+0=148352%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14637+10=146648%5
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1504+30+0=153458%11
MIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1466+2+10=147842%0
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1505201=148450%6
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1465+12+7=148450%7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
14844+0=148048%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150722+10=149552%2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
1485+2+0=148748%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150611+9=150452%6
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1505+23+0=152851%9
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152412+10=152249%8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1508+35+0=154344%1
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1521+56+10=158756%14
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
151026+0=148445%1
NYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
151912+10=151755%5
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1508231=148445%5
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152112+10=151955%3
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152317+0=150650%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150712+10=150550%6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1525+28+0=155353%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1506+19+10=153547%3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1527+6+0=153349%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+31+10=154451%6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
1529442=148350%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150226+10=148650%8
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Milone, Tommy
Milone
153516+0=151953%12
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150314+10=149947%10
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153624+0=151252%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150116+10=149548%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
1538171=152049%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1500+20+10=153051%7
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1499+30+0=152947%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1531+6+10=154753%2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1496141=148148%8
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
153345+10=149852%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
149515+0=148044%5
ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153620+10=152656%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1496+19+0=151548%5
ATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
153517+10=152852%6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1499+383=153446%2
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1532+17+15=156454%11
8/20Thursday, Aug. 204:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150019+0=148150%8
TORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
148212+10=148050%9
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
1501292=147047%2
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1481+0+8=148953%3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150214+0=148850%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hart, Kyle
Hart
149013+10=148750%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+0=148350%13
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
149320+8=148150%6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152213+0=150948%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1498+15+10=152352%6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152423+0=150144%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1496+34+10=154056%6
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lockett, Walker
Lockett
1525471=147749%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
149521+10=148451%6
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142621+0=140537%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
149912+10=149763%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142514+0=141138%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+10=149362%4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1423+1+0=142436%10
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1502+16+10=152864%9
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153717+0=152048%8
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1500+28+10=153852%13
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:47 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1535+8+0=154357%8
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150217+10=149543%0
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153415+0=151954%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150321+10=149246%2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1536291=150651%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150116+12=149749%5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157511+0=156460%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+10=149340%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
1574331=154051%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+25+9=153549%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1499+20+2=152144%11
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157627+12=156156%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150015+6=149130%3
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1575+52+10=163770%6
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Dugger, Robert
Dugger
145820+0=143842%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150316+10=149758%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14597+0=145239%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152961%7
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1457+143=146840%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+26+10=153960%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments