Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Pirates are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs34-26
RedsReds31-293.0
CardinalsCardinals30-283.0
BrewersBrewers29-315.0
PiratesPirates19-4115.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1450+4+0=145444%6
CLECLEIndians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
153349+10=149456%8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1446+17+0=146341%8
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153618+10=152859%0
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
144752=144036%3
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15366+10=154064%4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15263+0=152361%0
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14438+10=144539%7
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1528+24+0=155267%1
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
144220+10=143233%2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
152919+0=151057%2
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1440+8+10=145843%3
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1527232=150257%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1442+1+10=145343%0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1512+29+0=154160%2
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1443+16+10=146940%1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1511+83=151661%5
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14448+7=144339%4
9/18Friday, Sept. 188 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
144533=143942%2
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151017+7=150058%7
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
15099+0=150058%6
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
144612+10=144442%5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
1511+02=150957%1
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1444+5+8=145743%5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1445+0+0=144538%0
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1511+10+10=153162%1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1446+20+0=146646%1
CINCINReds
Lorenzen, Michael
Lorenzen
151027+10=149354%4
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14484+0=144442%4
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150819+10=149958%9
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1449+103=145639%1
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1507+18+8=153361%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1452+6+0=145846%0
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1451+23+10=148454%11
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14546+0=144849%4
KCKCRoyals
Hernandez, Carlos
Hernandez
14507+10=145351%7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1455+41=145851%3
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14495+7=145149%4
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
151412+0=150255%8
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1457+3+10=147045%1
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
1515201=149452%4
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1456+14+12=148248%5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
150823+0=148552%2
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1455+5+10=147048%3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1506152=148954%6
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14576+8=145946%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:25 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1455+72=146041%4
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1507+12+8=152759%3
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+4+0=151056%4
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1457+4+10=147144%2
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152811+0=151757%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1454+1+10=146543%6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1526+15+0=154159%8
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1456+13+10=147941%2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152519+0=150655%8
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1457+7+8=147245%7
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14583+0=145541%5
MILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
1508+0+10=151859%6
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1455+3+0=145837%5
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1511+30+10=155163%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14562+0=145440%6
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1510+3+10=152360%7
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
1459162=144142%1
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
150818+10=150058%9
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:50 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1457+1+0=145843%2
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151618+10=150857%0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1456+62=146042%4
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
151814+10=151458%3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1458+2+0=146041%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1508+3+10=152159%10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1459+5+0=146438%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1507+31+11=154962%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
151221+0=149154%4
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14587+10=146146%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15159+0=150659%5
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
145519+10=144641%12
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1518+143=152959%2
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1452+4+10=146641%7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1537+19+0=155663%2
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1453+1+10=146437%0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153514+0=152158%6
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1455+2+10=146742%1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15349+0=152558%6
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14563+15=146842%3
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1458+4+0=146238%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1513+26+10=154962%8
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1456+2+5=146341%9
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1515+1+10=152659%6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1441+13+0=145448%2
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1457+1+10=146852%1
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+0=143847%11
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
14609+10=146153%5
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+1+5=144246%17
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1462+0+10=147254%13
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1555+3+0=155863%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14602+10=146837%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
155483=154361%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14625+7=146439%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1463+13+0=147638%3
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15534+10=155962%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
1464102=145239%4
MINMINTwins
Thorpe, Lewis
Thorpe
155235+10=152761%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14644+0=146041%1
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152817+10=152159%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14656+0=145942%3
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152720+10=151758%4
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14665+0=146136%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1526+23+10=155964%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+27+0=154658%3
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+15+10=149342%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15219+0=151257%6
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
146612+10=146443%8
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1520+122=153059%6
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14675+7=146941%5
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
146510+0=145541%5
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151712+10=151559%1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14673+0=146442%1
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15154+10=152158%9
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+173=148237%4
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1514+48+10=157263%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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