Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Pirates have a 4% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1460, down 5 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs10-390%56%
CardinalsCardinals2-34.057%17%
BrewersBrewers5-64.057%15%
RedsReds6-84.552%12%
PiratesPirates3-117.54%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+0=143847%
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
14609+10=146153%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1439+12+0=145146%
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1460+8+10=147854%
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1460+03=145742%
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151211+15=151658%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146041%
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+1+10=152359%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 122 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146043%
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151214+10=150857%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
146092=144939%
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1516+4+10=153061%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1460+8+0=146842%
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15164+10=152258%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1460+0+0=146037%
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1516+27+10=155363%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146045%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151629+10=149755%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1531+11+0=154260%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147040%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153059%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147041%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153059%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147041%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+13=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151957%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151957%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146043%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+11=151157%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146043%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151057%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+1=146140%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146040%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146040%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146040%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152759%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+8=146841%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+01=149954%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+12=147246%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150054%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147046%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+01=145951%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+7=145449%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146050%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145750%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146050%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145750%
9/14Monday, Sept. 146:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+03=145741%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+8=152459%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146041%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152659%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146041%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152659%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151056%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+8=146844%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151256%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147044%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151256%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147044%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 20STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151256%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147044%
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+02=152558%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+12=147242%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+02=145838%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154062%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146039%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154061%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146039%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154061%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+1+5=144246%17
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1462+0+10=147254%13
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1555+3+0=155863%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14602+10=146837%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
155483=154361%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14625+7=146439%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1463+13+0=147638%3
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15534+10=155962%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
1464102=145239%4
MINMINTwins
Thorpe, Lewis
Thorpe
155235+10=152761%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14644+0=146041%1
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152817+10=152159%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14656+0=145942%3
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152720+10=151758%4
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14665+0=146136%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1526+23+10=155964%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+27+0=154658%3
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+15+10=149342%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15219+0=151257%6
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
146612+10=146443%8
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1520+122=153059%6
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14675+7=146941%5
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
146510+0=145541%5
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151712+10=151559%1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14673+0=146442%1
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15154+10=152158%9
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+173=148237%4
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1514+48+10=157263%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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